Singapore's Nodx grew 18.4% in December 2021.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/nodx-singapore-december-2021-13-straight-month-growth-2439956

Year on year changes (YOY):

December 2021: 18.4%

November 2021: 24.2%

October 2021: 17.9%

September 2021: 12.3%

August 2021: 2.7%

July 2021: 12.7%

June 2021: 15.9%

May 2021: 8.8%

April 2021: 6%

March 2021: 12.1%

February 2021: 4.2%

January 2021: 12.8%

December 2020: 6.8%

November 2020: -4.9%

October 2020: -3.1%

September 2020: 5.9%

August 2020: 7.7%

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%

May 2017: -1.2%

Apr 2017: -0.7%

Mar 2017: 16.5%

Feb 2017: 21.1%

China grew 8.1% in 2021!

Let's break it down to understand China's GDP growth better.

China grew 4% in Q4 year-on-year which was lower than Q3 because of the omicron outbreak.

However, China grew 1.6% in Q4 quarter-on-quarter which was double of Q3.  This showed that China had already passed its economic trough.

China will be cutting its rates very soon. - Part 3

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/17/china-cuts-rates-on-policy-loans-for-first-time-since-april-2020.html

China has cut its MLF to 2.85% from 2.95% today for the first time since April 2020.

We had stated previously that China would be implementing QE in 2022 and a rate cut was in the offing.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/analyses-of-us-main-street-economic_9.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/china-will-be-cutting-its-rates-very_12.html

However, 70% of analysts disagreed with us and projected no interest rate cut.  This put us in the 30% camp.  Who is right now?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-set-keep-borrowing-cost-mediumterm-loans-unchanged

Covid infection will cause severe hair loss!

https://fortune.com/2022/01/14/omicron-covid-symptom-hair-loss/

Please try to avoid getting a covid infection because it will cause severe hair loss.

Another reason to avoid getting covid.

Baltic dry index - 1764

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 601

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

US retail sales declined 1.9% in December 2021.

The persistently high inflation had eroded consumer spendings and household savings which resulted in the decline in retail sales.  This is not unexpected as the ISM PMI (new local order, Est'd -0.7%) has already indicated the weakness in consumption.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-ism-pmi-declined-in-december-2021-as.html

Oxpay - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/16/21	Amfrasers	Oxpay	0.29	0.42	Buy	PER25x FY22

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/13/21	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.235	0.27	Buy
02/15/21	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.23	0.27	Buy
02/15/21	Lim & Tan	Oxley	0.23	0	Buy
02/18/21	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.235	0.37	Buy
04/27/21	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.26	0.37	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
08/31/21	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.22	0.28	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
12/17/21	Lim & Tan	Oxley	0.183	0.28	Buy

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call
04/07/21	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.315	0	Accumulate on weakness
08/19/21	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.26	0	Hold

Stock calls for 14 January 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/14/22	DBS Vickers	Digicore Reit	1.18	1.4	Buy	DCF
01/14/22	Lim & Tan	Jumbo	0.315	0	Hold
01/14/22	Citi Research	Sembcorp Industries	2.14	2.52	Buy
01/14/22	DBS Vickers	SGX	9.65	10.2	Hold	DDM
01/14/22	Lim & Tan	Tiong Woon	0.46	0	Accumulate
01/14/22	OCBC	UOB	29.18	34.8	Buy

US PPI was at 9.7% in December 2021.

The US PPI continued to stay elevated at 9.7% in December 2021 which would continue to maintain the high US inflation as producers passed the high costs to consumers.  Thus, we expect to see high US inflation in Q1 2022.

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/21	Lim & Tan	OUE Commercial	0.385	0	Accumulate
02/03/21	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.4	0.415	Hold	DDM
02/05/21	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.385	0.4	Hold
08/02/21	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.435	0.5	Buy	DCF
08/03/21	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.435	0.45	Hold
11/03/21	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.45	0.5	Buy	DCF

OTS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call
09/03/21	SAC Capital	OTS	0.3	0.4	Buy

Oceanus - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call
01/20/21	UOB Kay Hian	Oceanus	0.041	0	Not Rated
03/01/21	Lim & Tan	Oceanus	0.071	0	Take Profit
03/15/21	Lim & Tan	Oceanus	0.036	0	Caution

Stock calls for 13 January 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/13/22	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	7.86	9.75	Buy	DCF

US inflation and core inflation had hit 7% and 5.5% respectively.

 US inflation (Dec 2021): 7%

US core inflation (Dec 2021): 5.5%

What's gonna happen during the upcoming Fed meeting?  Let's take a look at the Fedwatch's forecasts in January and March 2022.

January 2022: No rate hike because there is a high probability (96.9%) that the rate will remain at 0-0.25%.

March 2022: A rate hike may happen because of a high probability of 79.4%.

China will be cutting its rates very soon. - Part 2

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-inflation-eases-december-provide-opportunity-rate-cuts-2429571

China has just announced a very benign inflation rate of 1.5% and this bodes well for its impending interest rate cut.

Therefore, China is likely to begin its QE soon in 2022 to boost its economy.

We cannot boost our way out of this pandemic!

https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/2022/01/12/too-many-boosters-could-weaken-immune-systems

EU has just issued a health warning that frequent booster shots can weaken the immune systems.

Therefore, we cannot boost our way out of this pandemic because our immune system will get weaker.