Stock calls for 27 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/20	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.67	4.2	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
02/27/20	OCBC	Capitaland	3.67	4.24	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
02/27/20	CIMB	Capitaland	3.67	4.25	Add
02/27/20	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	1.16	1.25	Hold	PER8.5x FY21
02/27/20	CIMB	City Developments	10.37	12.09	Add
02/27/20	OCBC	City Developments	10.37	12.01	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
02/27/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.37	13	Buy
02/27/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Hold
02/27/20	phillip	Penguin	0.675	0.88	Buy	PER5x FY20 (ex-cash)
02/27/20	CIMB	Riverstone	1.05	1.3	Add
02/27/20	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.05	1.34	Buy

Omg! Japan is fudging its covid-19 statistics because of the upcoming Olympics.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-tokyo-games-ioc-member-says-more-likely-to-cancel-than-move.html

There is reliable speculation that Japan is fudging its covid-19 statistics to avoid cancellation of the Olympics as the IOC will cancel the event if the virus outbreak is not contained by May in Japan.  Some Japanese are complaining that their government is refusing to check people with some symptoms thoroughly for covid-19 virus because the government doesn't want to increase the covid-19 cases in Japan.

Japan has already spent billions to prepare and build infrastructures for the upcoming Olympics in July.  If this event is cancelled, Japanese firms will lose billions and many will go bankrupt.  Some hotels have closed down because of the covid-19 outbreak as there are few tourists now.

If Japan was allowed to hold the Olympics with its pseudo covid-19 statistics, there would be a major pandemic thereafter.  Consequently, there will be a global recession and global stock market crashes.

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.67	1.7	Accumulate	PER15x FY19
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20
09/03/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.59	1.6	Neutral	PER15x FY20
11/05/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.9	1.6	Reduce
02/12/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.88	1.6	Reduce	PER15x FY20

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.06	Sell	Sum of parts
03/19/19	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.158	Hold	PB0.48x CY18

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0	Buy on weakness
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	Hold	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Stock calls for 26 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/20	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.49	0.55	Accumulate	DCF
02/26/20	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.645	0.77	Accept offer	offer @ $0.77
02/26/20	OCBC	Capitaland	3.72	4.42	Buy
02/26/20	OCBC	City Developments	10.66	12.02	Buy
02/26/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.66	2	Buy	PER17x FY20
02/26/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.735	0.88	Buy	PER12x FY20
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.735	0.92	Buy
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.26	0.3	Buy
02/26/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.26	0.35	Buy	PER11.8x FY20
02/26/20	CIMB	Penguin	0.71	0.82	Add	PB1x FY20
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Penguin	0.71	0.85	Buy
02/26/20	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.01	0.99	Neutral	DCF
02/26/20	CIMB	UMS	0.965	1.08	Add	GGM, PB2.16x FY20
02/26/20	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.965	1.12	Buy	PER15x FY20

The US yield curve inversion has happened again in 2020! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-us-yield-curve-inversion-has.html

The US risk-free rate (10-year yield) is at 1.33% which is lower than 1-m, 2-m, 3-m and 6-m.  Moreover, the risk-free rate is lower than the Fed's set rates of 1.5%-1.75%.

Why is the inversion a chaotic condition?  Please read our previous post below for the explanation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-us-treasurys-situation-is-getting.html

Many western media like to paint a bad picture about Asia but statistics don't lie.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-contagion-spreads-beyond-china-023325202.html

Yes, economic contagion will spread beyond China to the rest of the world and not just Asia.  Europe and the US won't be spared too!

In fact, economic fissures have started to appear in the US due to the covid-19 outbreak.

The largest port in the US (Los Angeles) is projected to have a 25% drop in container volume in Feb 2020 due to the covid-19 outbreak.

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/port-los-angeles-expects-25-drop-feb-container-volumes-due-coronavirus

If the US GDP is still showing a good number, it will only mean that its imports are dropping more than its exports and this phenomenon is distorting the GDP growth.  Since import denotes future consumer demand, a declining import figure means that the local consumption is falling.  Please click on the link below for more explanation on GDP.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-upcoming-us-gdp-will-be-better.html

Becareful! The stock markets are being artificially supported now! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/becareful-stock-markets-are-being.html

We did warn about the stock markets in early February because our analysis showed that the virus outbreak won't reach its peak so fast.

After the 1000 points drop in DJIA recently, a few prominent analysts are also giving the same warning about the stock markets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/jim-cramer-buying-any-bounce-after-market-plunge-is-a-suckers-game.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-coronavirus-outbreak-increasingly-likely-and-could-drag-markets-jefferies-says.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/mohamed-el-erian-continues-to-warn-against-buying-coronavirus-dips.html

Japan and Russia alleged that covid-19 originated in the US.

https://www.ccn.com/did-coronavirus-originate-in-america-chinese-media-pushes-conspiracy/

"Japan’s TV Asahi Corporation claims that some of the 16,000 Americans who died of influenza during the flu season may have unknowingly contracted the Wuhan coronavirus."

Some Japanese analysts used big data in the US to conclude that covid-19 originated in the US.  This was because the average death toll from flu in the US was about 8,000 but the 2020 death toll had reached more than 16,000 which was more than double the average.  Therefore, the Japanese analysts concluded that US doctors labelled the cause of death as influenza instead of covid-19.

Coincidentally, the Chinese scientists studied the covid-19 genome sequence and discovered that the Wuhan virus didn't contain H38 which was found in the US covid-19 case.  Therefore, Chinese scientists concluded that Wuhan virus was imported because H38 was an ancestral haplotype.

https://gnews.org/123001/

Russia also alleged that covid-19 came from the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/russia-linked-disinformation-campaign-fueling-covid-19-alarm-us-12461174

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.35	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
02/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.38	1.43	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.42	1.5	Add	DDM
08/14/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.28	1.43	Buy
09/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.33	1.65	Buy	DCF
10/29/19	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.26	0	Hold
10/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF
10/31/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.43	Buy
11/12/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.23	1.6	Buy
12/05/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.16	1.41	Buy
12/06/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.15	1.3	Buy	DCF
12/09/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.18	1.36	Buy
01/20/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.37	Buy
01/20/20	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	0	Hold
01/22/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.31	Add	DDM
01/22/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.35	Buy	DCF