Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 13

I've received an email from a viewer asking me to update my opinion about the impending financial crisis that I had projected in 2022.  Since it's been a long time since I posted my opinion on this, I would gladly oblige the request.

The first time that I brought up this issue was in July 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html

Previously, my earlier projection was based on the following:

Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)

Excessive monetary policies

Imploding debts

Covid virus

Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html

I will update my analyses now with the following:

• Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
• QE tapering will end in March 2022
• Major covid virus outbreak in 2022 (omicron)
• Natural disasters
• ECB emergency program (PEPP) will end in March 2022.
• US Fed interest rate hikes in 2022 (3x)
• US GDP growth will decline in 2022
• US 10-year treasury yield will exceed 2% in 2022.

Thus, we will continue to maintain our stance that there will be an impending financial crisis in the US in 2022.

Baltic dry index - 2379

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 579

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/06/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	1.32	1.51	Buy
01/13/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.34	1.39	Buy
02/26/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	1.26	1.55	Buy
02/26/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.26	1.39	Buy	PB1.6x FY21
03/02/21	CIMB	Frencken	1.27	1.4	Add
03/02/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.27	1.39	Buy	PB1.6x FY21
03/09/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	1.2	1.72	Buy
03/09/21	Lim & Tan	Frencken	1.2	0	Accumulate on weakness
03/10/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	1.26	1.52	Buy
03/15/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.39	1.74	Buy	PER14.5x FY21
04/14/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	1.59	1.77	Buy	PER14x
05/14/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.42	1.73	Buy
05/14/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	1.42	1.72	Buy
05/14/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	1.42	1.98	Buy	PER14.7x FY21
05/18/21	Lim & Tan	Frencken	1.51	0	Accumulate on weakness
05/31/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.77	2	Buy
06/15/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	1.7	1.98	Buy
06/22/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	1.69	2.13	Buy
07/05/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.84	2	Buy
07/14/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	1.8	2.02	Buy	PER15.2x FY21
08/04/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	1.92	2.13	Buy
08/05/21	CIMB	Frencken	1.91	2.38	Add	PER15.3x FY22
08/13/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	2.16	2.65	Buy	PER15.5x FY22
08/13/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	2.16	2.3	Buy
08/17/21	CIMB	Frencken	2.25	2.5	Add
08/24/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	2.16	2.52	Buy	PER16x
08/26/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	2.17	2.63	Buy	PER15.5x FY22
09/08/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	2.33	2.65	Buy
09/08/21	Lim & Tan	Frencken	2.33	2.57	Hold
09/15/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	2.32	2.62	Buy
09/29/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	2.37	2.55	Buy
09/29/21	CIMB	Frencken	2.37	2.49	Add
10/11/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	2.16	2.63	Buy
10/14/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	2.09	2.62	Buy
11/12/21	DBS Vickers	Frencken	2.31	2.65	Buy	PER15.5x FY22
11/15/21	CIMB	Frencken	2.44	2.44	Hold
11/15/21	DMG & Partners	Frencken	2.44	2.64	Buy
11/18/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	2.25	2.62	Buy	PER16.7x FY22
12/02/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	2.12	2.5	Buy	PER15.5x FY22