Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.06	Sell	Sum of parts
03/19/19	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.158	Hold	PB0.48x CY18

Stock calls for 6 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.67	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.665	0.62	Neutral
06/06/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.46	2.33	Hold
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.61	1.77	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.48	0.61	Buy
06/06/19	phillip	DBS	24.27	29	Accumulate
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.56	1.53	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.25	Neutral
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.51	1.7	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.24	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.86	1.02	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.069	0.08	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.71	0.94	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.23	0.29	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.43	0.4	Neutral
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.74	0.8	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.23	0.23	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.845	0.96	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.5	1.6	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.076	0.1	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.825	0.9	Buy
06/06/19	phillip	OCBC	10.63	12.7	Accumulate
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.04	5.44	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.25	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.53	0.65	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.385	0.48	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.21	3.35	Neutral
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.21	3.55	Buy
06/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.31	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4	4.45	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	4	4.5	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.735	0.78	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.49	1.72	Neutral
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.84	0.92	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.84	0.91	Buy
06/06/19	phillip	UOB	24	30.9	Accumulate
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	24	30.8	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.3	3.94	Buy

Trump is threatening China again with more tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/trump-says-tariffs-on-china-could-be-raised-by-another-300-billion.html

China is prepared for a full-scale trade war with the US now.  The state media is using the term "trade war" now instead of "trade conflict" in China.

Do not pin any hope that the US and China can reach a trade deal in the G20 summit in June 2019.

Is G20 still relevant today?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-weak-growth-test-063632729.html

The cold hard fact is G20 is no longer relevant today.  Why?  This is because it is G2 that decides the world economic growth and not G20.  The G18 never tries to stop the G2 trade war but joins in the trade war by fighting against the G2.

Cambodia and Vietnam condemn PM Lee's remarks.

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/05/diplomatic-rift-mounting-between-cambodia-and-sg-over-pm-lees-remark-on-fb/

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/05/vietnam-joins-in-to-condemn-pm-lees-online-remark/

It is a fact that our PM Lee doesn't understand history as well as his father.  His ignorance caused Cambodia and Vietnam to condemn SG and make SG lose face. Sigh!

Just look at PM Lee's stance on Japan's heinous war crimes.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/whats-wrong-with-singapores-mindset.html

Even our PAP MP doesn't understand ASEAN history well.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/singapore-has-no-future-when-weve.html

How does a Cambridge professor view China?

An impartial and objective opinion from a Cambridge Professor about China.

China is right to support Venezuela.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/xi-says-china-play-constructive-015417369.html

The UN only recognizes the elected President of Venezuela and not any self-proclaimed President which is endorsed by the western countries.

Maduro is the legitimate and the only elected President and China is right to support him.

With China and Russia's support, the US will have limited influences in Venezuela and Venezuela will be more stable without the US intervention.

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates because of the trade war? - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-wall-street-surges-powells-161900316.html

The US stock market's surge last night was caused by Fed Powell speech which hinted that he would cut interest rates.  However, the US stock market is just having some dead cat bounce and the US economy is still deteriorating.  At the end of the day, the US stock market still must reflect the true economic condition.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

This interest rate reduction had been predicted by us in our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

We indicated that the US Fed would be willing to cut interest rates by analyzing the 4 US Fed interest rates.

China has issued a travel alert to USA.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-warns-companies-u-travel-091736491.html

China is trying to reduce its services trade deficit with the US by discouraging China tourism in the US.

This US-China trade war will escalate further and may balkanize the world into 2 (US vs China).  We'll have to choose to adopt US technology or China technology in the future.

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0	Buy on weakness
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	Hold	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.35	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
02/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.26	1.42	Add	DDM
01/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.33	1.39	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.4	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.3	Hold	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.44	Add	DDM
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.3	Hold
03/07/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.44	1.45	Hold
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26

Stock calls for 4 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
06/04/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.38	3.03	Buy	Sum of parts
06/04/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.39	1.99	Buy	PB1.8x FY20

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy.

We have put in the above PMI numbers on our PMI flow chart to give our viewers a clearer picture.


The PMI headline number has decreased from 52.8 (April) to 52.1 (May).

Let's suss out the real situation in the US.

The new order increased by 1 because of the new export order (+1.5) but the local order decreased.  In other words, this showed that the local consumption had decreased in May which meant that the US citizens were holding back their purchases.  The new export order increased because Trump forced other smaller nations to buy more from the US with tariff threats.

Although the new order increased by 1 in May, the production sub-index decreased by 1.  This showed that the manufacturers didn't expect the increase to continue and they were just producing to meet their existing orders.  This was substantiated with the increase in customers' inventories and a decline in backlog of orders (-6.7).  The inventories and supplier's deliveries also declined because of the production cut.  The employment sub-index looked set to decline if the production cut persisted because manufacturers would cut inventories first before laying off workers.

The prices sub-index increased by 3.2 because the manufacturers switched to local raw materials which were costlier.  Moreover, the tight labour market also induced the manufacturers to pay higher salaries.

Since local consumption makes up close to 70% of the US economy, the US GDP is likely to decline further as the US citizens are not spending like before as prices have increased.  The US-China trade war is beginning to hurt the US economy now.

Singapore PMI is in a contraction mode (49.9)

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pmi-drops-below-50-for-first-time-in-almost-3-years-024900712.html

Any number below 50 is a contraction phase and PMI is a leading indicator of the GDP.  However, comparing the month-on-month PMI headline numbers is not the right way to interpret the PMI.  It looks like our next GDP number won't look good from the PMI.

Please look at our previous post if you want to learn about the interpretation of PMI.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Why must we be vigilant of the political arena in the financial market?

The reason is very simple.  We will get caught in the whirlpool if we are not vigilant of our surroundings.

A youtube video below aptly depicts the gravity of the situation when one is not vigilant.

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.04	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.1	Add	DDM
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	2.22	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19	DIR	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	1.78	Underperform
01/24/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.2	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	1.94	Hold	Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	2.04	Hold
02/15/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.03	Neutral
02/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	1.98	Hold
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.3	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.12	2.3	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.11	2.25	Buy	DDM

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Hold
01/24/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Add	DDM
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	2	Buy	DCF
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.6	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	2	Buy
02/08/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	1.9	Add
03/20/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.83	1.94	Add	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.87	1.8	Hold
04/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Commercial	1.84	1.85	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.89	2	Buy	DCF
05/28/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.93	2.03	Add

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.92	Buy
01/02/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.88	Buy	DCF
02/12/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0	Hold
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.94	Buy	DDM
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.92	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.835	0.95	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.85	0.94	Buy
03/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0	Hold
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.92	Buy
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.97	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0.96	Buy	DDM
05/29/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.86	1	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 3 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	DBS	24.29	27.64	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.149	0.15	Neutral
06/03/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate
06/03/19	OCBC	KSH	0.45	0	Cease coverage
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/03/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.2	3.66	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.49	1.62	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/03/19	CIMB	UOB	23.5	29.58	Add
06/03/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.605	0.63	Hold	PER8x CY20
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)

Omg! Boeing has a wing problem now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-737-max-planes-may-192001217.html

We've taken for granted that the US FAA would do a proper aviation safety certification for planes.  It is proven that the FAA is an irresponsible entity and is no longer an independent organization.

If every aviation safety authority starts to check on Boeing, I believe more problems can be found.  We must not trust the FAA anymore.

The US defense secretary is fear-mongering about China threat in Singapore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/acting-us-defense-secretary-calls-053048457.html

If China's military defence budget of US$176B for 2019 is a threat, then what about the US's military budget of US$686B for 2019? US military budget is 3.9x more than China but China population is 4.7x greater than the USA.

Which one is more of a threat? Spending US$176B to protect 1.4B people or US$686B to protect 300M people?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The US is really treating Asians as stupid people.

Baltic dry index - 1097

Today, Thursday, May 30 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 10 points, reaching 1097 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 984

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms. - Part 2

https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/huawei-reinstated-in-sd-association/

IEEE, SD and Wifi associations have started to reinstate Huawei after the removal.

It looks like China's blacklist is working wonders.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-will-create-blacklist-for.html

If the China blacklist is upheld to the US standards of the entity list, the blacklist will disrupt the supply chains for foreign companies on the list.

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/shangri-la-china-face-off-not-strategic-inevitability-pm-lee-11585858

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again.  No wonder he keeps siding with the USA because he belittles China too much.

Yes, China cannot take down the US but the US also cannot take down China.  Just look at Russia!

The US cannot take down Russia even though the US economy and military prowess are much bigger.  Why? This is because both countries have large nuclear arsenals and going to war with each other is self-annihilating.  It will be an internecine war with China too.

China's economy will overtake the US in less than a decade if China GDP is still growing at the current rate.  The earliest will be in 2025 and the latest by 2030.  If we use PPP to measure the GDP, China is already the largest GDP in the world as compiled by PWC.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/02/china-is-worlds-largest-economy-based.html

China is just as resilient as the US because it has the support of 1.4B people.  The large local market size is able to revitalize China economy when there is an economic war with the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

ECB's simulation also showed that China would win the trade war.  How did our PM Lee derive his conclusion?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/09/ecb-simulation-showed-that-china-would.html

Look like our PM Lee has lost touch with the China situation.  I'm very worried about SG future now after reading his speech.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-blacklist-us-unreliable-firms-huawei-trade-war-11585662

This will force companies to choose to do businesses either in the US or in China.  Who started this? USA!

Look like Google and Microsoft will be on the blacklist.  Many semiconductor manufacturers will be on the list too.

The business climate has changed.  Ceos have to choose between the USA and China now.

At the end of the day, all businesses will have a much smaller pie now because they cannot do businesses in both countries (US and China).

China has reaffirmed the friendship with Malaysia with a communique.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/a-day-after-mahathir-voiced-support-for-huawei-chinas-ambassador-to-malaysia-says-the-countries-will-be-friends-forever/

Communique - "Friendship Forever China-Malaysia"

This lengthy public article with 1,171 words was published on the embassy's FB signified an extraordinary milestone that Singapore couldn't achieve with China.  I am kinda worried about the strengthened relationship between China and Malaysia because SG will be marginalized by this strong bonding that SG has forsaken.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

India got backstabbed by the USA!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-says-end-of-india-trade-preference--done-deal--11583058

We've been warning that the US is not a reliable and credible country.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/india-pays-high-price-to-get-cozy-with.html

India and SG must learn from history.

When you take history seriously, history will repeat itself.

Turkey's economy has worsen!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-turkish-economy-shrinks-2-075823691.html

The Turkish economy has shrunk by 2.6% in Q1.  This is really a piece of bad news as a weakening economy will lead to a weakening lira and create a vicious cycle.  Ultimately, this will cause a collapse in the Turkish stock market.

Watch out for Turkish development as this may lead to the European Financial Crisis (EFC).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/1997-asian-financial-crisis-is.html

M1 - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.09	1.63	Sell
01/04/19	Phillip	M1	2.08	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/08/19	OCBC	M1	2.06	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	M1	2.07	2.06	Neutral	Offer $2.06
01/29/19	CIMB	M1	2.06	2.06	Hold	Offer $2.06
02/12/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.04	1.77	Sell
03/07/19	OCBC	M1	2.05	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.515	0	Buy on weakness

KSH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/19/18	OCBC	KSH	0.525	0.81	Buy
11/19/18	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.525	0	Buy
02/15/19	OCBC	KSH	0.52	0.81	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	KSH	0.535	0.81	Buy
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy

Stock calls for 31 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/31/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.585	0.7	Buy
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.79	2.07	Buy	Ringgit $6.30 target price, PER32.8x FY2020
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
05/31/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.6	0.62	Hold
05/31/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.625	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.625	0.8	Buy

Microsoft has banned Huawei from its ecosystem.

https://marketrealist.com/2019/05/microsoft-joins-google-in-cutting-off-huawei/

Microsoft is already a US state agent many years ago and I'm not surprised by this.

We've reported on MS before (See the posts below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/stop-using-microsoft-windows-and-you.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-going-to-impose-blanket-ban.html

Hahaha! Canada has to deal with its own waste now.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/cargo-ship-arrives-philippines-return-canadian-trash-151417611.html

Canada cannot ship its waste to the Philippines and Malaysia now.  Hahaha!

It is forced to deal with its own waste now by finding its own landfill, building its own waste burning furnace, etc.  The bottom line is the air won't be as clean as before in Canada anymore.

The US stock markets are getting precarious.

The risk-free (10y bond yield) rate is at 2.22% and it is below the Fed's interest rates bandwidth of 2.25%-2.5%.  This will increase the Fed's pressure to reduce its interest rates as the current rates are no longer relevant and effective to manage the market expectation.  This exposes the fragility of the risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  Furthermore, there are some yield curve inversions which denote a forthcoming recession.

Is a recession coming soon?

A recession is highly likely to happen in our view. Why?

The US corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is giving a red light warning now.

Whenever there was a credit cycle peak in the past, there would be a US recession.  The credit cycle peaks happened in 1990 (oil shock recession), 2000 (tech bubble burst), 2008 (US housing collapse, Lehmans bro minibonds) and 2018 (forthcoming recession).

The credit cycle had peaked in 2018 and the US-China trade war started in 2018 too.  The world economies have started to slow down now due to the trade war.  Consequently, the US bond markets are showing the low-risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  With so many negative factors in this global environment now, a recession is inevitable.

Koufu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.63	0.8	Buy	PER17x FY19
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy	PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.27	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.24	Neutral	DCF
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF