Singtel - To buy or hold?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/02/10 AmFraser Singtel 3.01 3.05 Hold
02/09/10 AmFraser Singtel 3.01 3.05 Hold
02/18/10 AmFraser Singtel 3 3.05 Hold
05/10/10 AmFraser Singtel 2.98 3.05 Hold
05/14/10 AmFraser Singtel 2.97 3.04 Hold

01/25/10 CIMB Singtel 3.01 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/04/10 CIMB Singtel 2.99 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/09/10 CIMB Singtel 2.95 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/10/10 CIMB Singtel 3.03 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
03/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.05 3.3 Underperform
04/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.19 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
04/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.2 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
04/15/10 CIMB Singtel 3.15 3.3 Underperform
04/22/10 CIMB Singtel 3.12 3.3 Neutral Sum of parts
04/29/10 CIMB Singtel 3.01 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
05/12/10 CIMB Singtel 2.98 3.3 Underperform
05/14/10 CIMB Singtel 2.97 3 Underperform Sum of parts

01/25/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.01 3.15 Hold Sum of parts
02/01/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.01 3.5 Buy Sum of parts
02/09/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 2.95 3.5 Buy
02/23/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.02 3.5 Buy
03/15/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.12 3.5 Buy
05/05/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 2.96 3.4 Buy PER12x
05/13/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3 3.4 Buy Sum of parts

02/10/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.02 2.98 Neutral Sum of parts
04/28/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.09 2.98 Neutral
05/10/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 2.98 2.98 Neutral

02/10/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.03 3.42 Buy
03/18/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.2 3.42 Buy
04/01/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.17 3.42 Buy
05/14/10 Kim Eng Singtel 2.97 3.13 Hold PER12x

02/09/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 2.95 0 Neutral
04/29/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 3.01 0 Neutral
05/13/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 3 0 Neutral

02/09/10 OCBC Singtel 2.95 3.51 Buy Sum of parts
04/26/10 OCBC Singtel 3.14 3.51 Buy
05/14/10 OCBC Singtel 2.97 3.4 Buy Sum of parts

02/10/10 phillip Singtel 3.03 3.52 Buy DCF
05/14/10 phillip Singtel 2.96 3.43 Buy DCF

Sell Straits Asia as OCBC doesn't like it.

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/13/10 CIMB Straits Asia 2.6 3.37 Trading Buy DCF
03/08/10 CIMB Straits Asia 1.99 2.09 Neutral DCF

01/19/10 DBS Vickers Straits Asia 2.57 3.35 Buy DCF
02/25/10 DBS Vickers Straits Asia 2.14 3.2 Buy DCF

04/08/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 1.19 1.4 Buy PER15x
04/12/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 2.21 2.08 Neutral DCF
04/29/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 2.04 2.08 Neutral DCF, PER11.4x

01/20/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.57 2.49 Hold
02/25/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.14 1.73 Sell
03/05/10 OCBC Straits Asia 1.97 1.76 Sell
03/10/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.12 1.76 Sell
04/27/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.11 1.76 Sell
04/29/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.04 1.8 Sell

Is Wilmar still worth to buy at this level?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

03/02/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.67 6.55 Hold PER18x
04/08/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.93 7.31 Hold
05/06/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.72 7.3 Hold

04/19/10 CIMB Wilmar 6.93 8.4 Outperform
05/12/10 CIMB Wilmar 6.54 8.4 Outperform PER20x

01/05/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.43 7.3 Buy
03/01/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.67 8 Buy DCF
04/08/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.93 8 Buy

03/02/10 DMG & Partners Wilmar 6.67 7.35 Buy PER18.8x

01/15/10 Kim Eng Wilmar 7.04 8.1 Buy Sum of parts
03/02/10 Kim Eng Wilmar 6.67 8.1 Buy PER20x

03/02/10 OCBC Wilmar 6.67 8.23 Buy PER20x

EU rescue package is just like an adrenaline jab.

EU rescue package of $750b doesn't seem to impress investors and euro keeps sliding down after the announcement.  Why?

Well, for a start, EU has to sell debt to raise the fund and lend it to Greece and investors are not willing to buy EU debt especially asian investors as they are doubtful about EU.  Let me use a rhetoric question to explain the attitude of asian investors. "Would you lend money to a debtor when the debtor can't pay existing debt?"

Selling debt at a time like this is not easy as US and other countries are also selling massive debts to raise fund for their own economies.  What EU has just done is just stalling time but the break-up of the 16 nations looks inevitable. This is just like a critically-ill patient who has just being injected with adrenalin.  Greece can only do so much to cut its deficit as its citizens still need to eat and drink.

In conclusion, it is highly likely that Greece will be the first country to break away from the EU.  Taking on more debts when you can't even pay existing debts would not be the solution to a healthier economy.  EU won't be the same continent anymore after this crisis.

First Ship Lease Trust - Various research report calls

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/26/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.6 0.78 Buy
04/21/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.64 0.78 Buy
05/05/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.545 0.55 Hold 12% Yield

01/26/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.6 0.53 Hold
03/19/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.61 0.53 Hold
04/16/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.65 0.53 Hold
04/22/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.635 0.59 Hold FCFE Model (20% discount)
05/11/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.505 0.48 Hold FCFE Model (25% discount)

Is it time to buy Cosco now?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/23/10 AmFraser Cosco 1.28 1.17 Hold PER17x
03/08/10 AmFraser Cosco 1.21 1.17 Hold PER17x


02/23/10 CIMB Cosco 1.28 0.67 Underperform Sum of parts
03/15/10 CIMB Cosco 1.23 0.87 Underperform Sum of parts


01/08/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.26 0.78 Fully Valued
02/23/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.28 1 Fully Valued Sum of parts
04/07/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.35 1.6 Buy Sum of parts
04/13/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.65 1.8 Buy Sum of parts
04/16/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.75 1.8 Buy
05/07/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.56 1.8 Buy Sum of parts


02/23/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.28 0.81 Sell PB1.7x
03/16/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.25 0.81 Sell
04/21/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.79 1.17 Sell PB2.5x


02/23/10 phillip Cosco 1.28 1.03 Sell BV2.01x
03/16/10 phillip Cosco 1.25 1.45 Buy PB2.8x
05/07/10 phillip Cosco 1.56 1.86 Buy BV3.6x

Greece's debt problem seems to get bigger and bigger.

The rescue package for Greece just seems to get bigger and bigger from the initial Euro $40b and then upped to $110b and upped to $140b over the last few days. This just goes to show that Greece is hiding massive debts from the EU members.  Furthermore, EU has to setup a massive emergency fund to defend euro.  What happens if Spain or Portugal also collapses?  How is EU going to find money to help its member?

EU is setting up a multi-billion stabilization fund to defend EURO.

EU has come together to defend the euro next week and rumour has it that the stabilization fund might be around euro $600b.  Will this scare off currency speculators like George Soros? Let's see.

Countries that need to raise funds urgently.

The following countries that need to raise funds urgently:

Greece
Spain
Portugal
USA
Japan
UK
Russia

When these countries drain huge amount of money from the stock market, there will be a significant drop in liquidity and the stock market won't be able to move up anymore.

Explanation for US big plunge in stock market

The close to 1000 points drop in US market on 6 May was due to computerized trading and may not be due to trader'e error for some who tried to explain the plunge.

The staggered stop-loss levels set by investors/traders triggered the exacerbation of the quick plunge when the Dow Jones index fell to those levels but quickly recovered more than 50% of its loss.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is now at 2988!

Shipping stocks will be badly affected when the world economy is down as BDI will continue to fall and shipments will drop as consumers rein in their spendings.

STI - Singapore stock market is down due to negative market sentiment.

The European-crisis is driving fear in asian markets and Singapore stock market is also affected.  Fundamentally strong stocks will continue to fall and those S-chips are especially vulnerable.

New Century Shipbuilding cancels IPO on SGX

China stocks or S-Chips are really losing integrity big time as this latest cancellation (New Century Shipbuilding) shows that many china stocks are hiding important materials from IPOs and their P&L statements would show huge deteriorations within 2 years of listings.

Many china companies cook their books during IPOs to raise funds from the stock market and they would be suspended and delisted when they have cashflow problems leaving minority shareholders in a dry high situation.

I think it's time we realized that we've to take a pinch of salt from those S-chips and avoid them at all cost as sifting through the good ones are not really worth the effort as we don't know the veracities of their accounts.

OCBC - Research report calls from various research houses

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/22/10 CIMB OCBC 8.54 9.38 Neutral
04/30/10 CIMB OCBC 8.69 9.38 Neutral


02/04/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.35 9.5 Buy
02/22/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.54 9.5 Buy Gordon Growth Model
03/04/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.45 9.5 Buy Gordon Growth Model
04/08/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.91 10.15 Buy BV1.8x
04/15/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 9.16 10.15 Buy PB1.8x
05/03/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.8 10.15 Buy PB1.8x


02/03/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.19 9 Neutral BV1.7x
02/22/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.54 9 Neutral PB1.6x
04/28/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.81 9 Neutral PB1.6x


02/22/10 Kim Eng OCBC 8.54 9.5 Hold PB1.65x
03/08/10 Kim Eng OCBC 8.53 9.5 Hold


02/22/10 phillip OCBC 8.54 8.63 Hold NAV1.54x
05/03/10 phillip OCBC 8.8 8.63 Hold Gordon Growth Model

Good news for Abterra!

Glencore which is a customer of Abterra mulls merger with Xstrata and IPO and Abterra is expected to do more businesses with Glencore and Xstrata.

Baker Tech has fallen more than 10 cents after agreeing to sell PPL to Yangzijiang

I refer to my previous thread on Baker Tech here.

Baker Tech has dropped as expected as investors have bailed out.  Lesson learnt here is never catch a falling knife. I pity those who bought Baker Tech at around 55cents. 3 cheers to those who sold Baker Tech!

DBS research report calls from various research houses

Date/Research House/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/05/10 CIMB DBS 14.2 16.28 Neutral PB1.4x
02/08/10 CIMB DBS 14.04 14.88 Underperform PB1.3x
04/30/10 CIMB DBS 15.3 14.88 Underperform


01/27/10 DMG & Partners DBS 14.7 14 Neutral BV1.3x
02/05/10 DMG & Partners DBS 14.2 14 Neutral
03/31/10 DMG & Partners DBS 14.56 14 Neutral
04/30/10 DMG & Partners DBS 15.3 14 Neutral PB1.3x

02/08/10 Kim Eng DBS 14.04 17.4 Buy PB1.5x
03/08/10 Kim Eng DBS 14.06 17.4 Buy PB1.5x

02/02/10 OCBC DBS 14.16 16.6 Buy PB1.5x
02/08/10 OCBC DBS 14.04 16.6 Buy

01/19/10 phillip DBS 15.14 14.55 Hold NAV1.31x
02/08/10 phillip DBS 14.04 14.55 Hold NAV1.32x, Gordon Growth Model
05/03/10 phillip DBS 15.3 14.55 Hold Gordon Growth Model

UOB - BUY calls from various research houses

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Valuation Method

01/07/10 phillip UOB 19.9 23 Buy NAV2x

01/07/10 CIMB UOB 19.9 23.32 Outperform PB1.96x

01/07/10 Kim Eng UOB 19.9 23 Buy

01/07/10 AmFraser UOB 19.9 23.77 Buy Gordon Growth Model

02/02/10 CIMB UOB 18.24 23.32 Outperform

02/04/10 DBS Vickers UOB 18.54 21.2 Buy

02/27/10 DMG & Partners UOB 18.64 22.3 Buy PB1.9x

03/01/10 Kim Eng UOB 18.64 21.8 Buy PB1.8x

03/01/10 DBS Vickers UOB 18.64 21.2 Buy Gordon Growth Model

03/01/10 phillip UOB 18.64 23 Buy Gordon Growth Model, PB1.94x

03/01/10 AmFraser UOB 18.64 23.95 Buy Gordon Growth Model

03/04/10 DBS Vickers UOB 18.2 21.2 Buy

03/08/10 Kim Eng UOB 17.86 21.8 Buy PB1.8x

04/01/10 DMG & Partners UOB 19.44 22.3 Buy

04/08/10 DBS Vickers UOB 19.8 22.2 Buy BV1.8x

04/15/10 DBS Vickers UOB 20.88 22.2 Buy PB1.8x

04/19/10 CIMB UOB 20.46 23.32 Outperform

04/30/10 CIMB UOB 20.16 23.32 Outperform

05/03/10 DBS Vickers UOB 20.32 22.2 Buy PB1.8x

05/03/10 phillip UOB 20.32 23 Buy Gordon Growth Model

Greece will be saved in a couple of days!

If Greece is allowed to collapse, it will drag down portugal and spain too and the contagion will spread across europe as many banks and funds that bought into the government bonds of these 3 countries will suffer a painful and acrimonious death and EU will have to bail out many financial institutions.  The cost of saving Greece certainly outweighs the cost of not saving Greece. If EU collapses, nobody will be around to buy US treasury bills and US will never be able to stand on its own feet anymore.

Synopsis of Abterra's AGM

Abterra bought 49% of Jiaozhong coal mine (Shanxi) at $188m rmb with a coal reserve of 10m metric tonnes but was later revised up to 64m metric tonnes. However, it was found later that the true minable coal reserve was 50m metric tonnes. During that time, foreigners were not allowed to own more than 50% shares in chinese coal mines and Abterra made a smart move by buying 49%(24.5m metric tonnes) of Jiaozhong coal mine at a super cheap price with a minable coal reserve of 50m metric tonnes. Please note that Abterra did not account for Jiaozhong's earning contribution in its financial statement and therefore, the temporary production shutdown in Shanxi had no effect on Abterra. Abterra's revenue and earning drops were mainly due to its core trading business which suffered from the worldwide financial crisis and the olympic event whereby coal shipments to china came to a virtual stop.

Thereafter, the chinese government started to restructure the mining industry in 2009. No foreigner is allowed to own any chinese mine now and the chairman of Abterra used his guanxi(close relationship) with Shanxi government to retain part of the shareholding by diluting from 49% to 24.01% as the chairman had been investing in Shanxi province for the past 20 years. Although the purchase price of 188m rmb remained the same, the total coal reserve increased to 117m metric tonnes due to Shanxi government injection of its own coals and the production capacity had been increased to 900,000 metric tonnes instead of 150,000 metric tonnes. Therefore, Abterra can be considered to be in ownership of 28m metric tonnes which is slightly more than its previous holding of 24.5m metric tonnes. Jiaozhong coal mine is said to be restarting production this month and Abterra is awaiting formal confirmation in writing from Jiaozhong and abterra will be accounting for jiaozhong earnings on its financial statement this year.

Abterra also announced during the AGM that it had just clinched a S$20m deal from Glencore with a profit margin of 7-12% and all the cylinders will be firing at full speed this year with the expectation of about 300% improvement in its businesses for 2010. GNR also would like to increase its shareholdings in abterra but is only permitted to purchase only 1% every 6-month according to SGX ruling. This move can be seen by the recent purchases by GNR in the SGX announcement.

Abterra sought a credit line of $20m with YA Global because it had to put up money for bank LC for its trading business. In a nutshell, Abterra has to put up about $30k for every $1m of trade. The shareholders passed all the resolutions including issuance of additional shares for future expansion of credit lines and acquisitions. Abterra also has the intention to increase its shareholdings in yongxin from 15% to 20% so that it can equity account for yongxing's earnings under Abterra.

In conclusion, anyone or company that would like to have a hand in the coal mines in China has to acquire companies like Abterra. Furthermore, China does not export any coal and is a net importer of coals which only goes to show that any coal mine under Abterra in China will be selling all the coals to China users easily. In short, there is no demand problem but supply problem in China and the coal price is definitely increasing over time.

Is Genting turning around now or the surge today is just an abberation?

Let's take a look at various research report calls below.

Date/Research House/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

14/01,CIMB,$1.24,$1.50,Outperform,Ebitda 20x
27/01,CIMB,$1.10,$1.50,Trading Buy,SOTP
09/02,CIMB,$1.09,$1.50,Trading Buy,SOTP
18/03,CIMB,$0.97,$1.23,Trading Buy,Not Disclosed
29/04,CIMB,$0.87,$1.23,Outperform,SOTP

22/01,Citigroup,$1.23,$0.80,Sell,Not Disclosed
22/02,Citigroup,$0.97,$0.76,Sell,SOTP & DCF

29/01,DMG,$1.08,$1.22,Trading Buy,Not Disclosed

08/02,DBS Vickers,$1.09,$1.20,Hold,SOTP
22/02,DBS Vickers,$1.04,$1.07,Hold,SOTP
08/03,DBS Vickers,$0.90,$1.07,Hold,PER26x,Ev/Ebitda 14x
19/03,DBS Vickers,$0.97,$1.07,Hold,SOTP

08/02,OCBC,$1.09,$1.39,Buy,Not Disclosed
22/02,OCBC,$0.94,$1.04,Buy,DCF
08/03,OCBC,$0.905,$1.04,Buy,Not Disclosed
18/03,OCBC,$0.97,$1.04,Buy,Not Disclosed

We can see that CIMB has been pushing for a BUY on Genting every month from January to April when Genting has been falling for the past 4 months. The surge in Genting today maybe due to CIMB as it issues a BUY call again on Genting.

Is Yangzijiang worth buying after purchasing PPLH from Baker Tech?

Yangzijiang has just announced its revenue and profit increased by more than 20% respectively.

Please take a look at the various research report calls for this April:

Date/Research House/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method
19/4,DBS Vickers,$1.43,$1.75,Buy,Not Disclosed
19/4,CIMB,$1.43,$2.07,Outperform,PER14x
28/4,DMG,$1.40,$1.80,Buy,PER15x
28/4,OCBC,$1.40,$1.60,Hold,Not Disclosed

Is Golden Agri still worth buying after clashes with greenpeace?

The incident with greenpeace is just a blip and will not tarnish the reputation of Golden Agri as Golden Agri has taken action to prevent escalation of the problem.

Please look below for the various research report calls for this year,:
Date/Reseach House/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/02,CIMB,$0.52,$0.69,Trading Buy,PER18x
26/02,DMG,$0.54,$0.68,Trading Buy,PER15x
02/03,Philips,$0.54,$0.46,Hold,DCF
28/4,OCBC,$0.61,$0.72,Buy,PER17x

US should not persist in making China revalues its yuan upward.

US is having a myopic view by making China revalues its yuan so that it can rebalance its deficit.  First and foremost, US can't rebalance its deficit and bump up its employment. If China revalues its yuan, China will export inflation to the world in this crisis-hit era.  Exports will slow down in China causing retrenchments and closures of factories and prices will shoot up worldwide especially in US as there is no cheap production anymore.

There was a consumer research done a few years ago on price influences in US without using China made products and the ensuing outcome was HIGH PRICES.  I think US is trying to shift focus away from its own problems and conveniently use China as a scapegoat for all the problems.

Nonetheless, this is NOT the time to allow inflation to creep in or we'll be having another BIGGER problem pretty soon in the unforeseenable future.

NOL share price has run ahead of fundamentals!

NOL is getting overpriced as it has sped ahead of fundamentals which is driven by market sentiment.

Looking back at the 12th Global Liner Shipping Conference in London in April 2010, Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, predicted that 2010 freight rates would only reach break-even level at best on the back of a slow recovery in demand and it would only be making a modest profit for the year of 2010.

Therefore, how would the world economy recover so much in a span of just 2 weeks and propel NOL's shares to surge higher?

Where is the cash in China Hongxing?

China Hongxing had been reassuring investors that it had the cash to redeem the bonds but it could not repatriate the money to Singapore due to administrative issues in China.  It has been months since China Hongxing reported the problem but there is still no new outcome on this problem.

Therefore, I'm very doubtful about this counter and will not touch it at all.  Better to invest in another company and sleep well at night.

Is Rickmers worth buying? What about other shipping trusts?

Rickmers has just reported its profit plunges by 51% even though revenue improves by 14%. This shows that its expenses are growing faster than earnings and that it also has to pay compensations for the huge order cancellations (US$918.7m) by cash & interest-bearing convertible loan (US$64m in total).

This, in fact, is a good thing as Rickmers is biting the bullet and it no longer has to find ways to fund the humongous purchase. Lesson learnt here is never bite more than you can chew.  If Rickmers were to persist in the purchase, its loan-to-value (LTV) clause would be invoked and the loan interest would be revised upward and put Rickmers in dire straits.

However, the bad side to this is whether Rickmers will be able to deliver better revenue with its 16 container ships.  Shipping trusts like Rickmers have to constantly acquire more ships to increase its yield as most of the ships have already locked in chartering rates for the long terms (usually 7-10 years).

I, personally, would advise investors to jump ship and invest in Pacific Shipping as it has no LTV compared to Rickmers & First Ship.

Baker Tech has sold PPLH to Yangzijiang.

Baker Tech has sold off the golden goose to Yangzijiang and this company has nothing much to offer in the future.  This company also reported its profit plunged 60% recently. No doubt the next earnings report will look good due to this one-time off sale but the future prospect is dimmer than before.  If not, why would Sembcorp Marine object to the sale? Time to sell out and reinvest in another stock.

Death knell bellowing for Genting (RWS)?

There is a high probability that Genting share price is on a downfall trajectory when MBS's casino is opened at the end of April 2010. In fact, Genting share prices has been falling when the MBS's casino official inauguration date gets nearer and nearer.

As customers are always fond of novelties, majority of them would visit and play at MBS's casino instead to experience which of the two would be the preferred joint for themselves.  Therefore, it is not a surprise for RWS to report a drastic drop in customers of at least 50% after the opening of MBS.

Singapore, afterall, is a small isle and I do not think that it can accomodate 2 casino resorts.  Having 2 casino resorts will not widen the pie but cannibalize each other.

Prudential is seeking secondary listing on SGX

It is good to subscribe for prudential shares on SGX as the primary listing on HKE is expected to perform well.  Generally speaking, AIA life was a golden goose under AIG and if not for the crisis, AIG would not sell AIA life.  Prudential had the foresight and took the opportunity to subsume AIA life under its wings at the right time.

Abterra - Buyers buying!

The chart above dated 22/04/2010 shows that buyers had been buying up Abterra 1 and a half month ago.

Singapore Stock Market - Straits Times Index (STI)

The above chart date 22/04/10 shows that the recent rises in STI is well supported as buyers have been coming into the market.

The real situation in US stock market.

The above chart dated 20/04/2010 shows that the rise in Dow Jones Index was not accompanied by rising trading volumes which can only mean that Dow Jones Index can fall easily as it is not well supported.  If the Dow Jones Index is well supported, buyers will be buying up the index as they feel that the index level is cheap but this is not so.  As the index goes higher and higher, there are lesser buyers buying up. Why?

This could only mean that the buyers felt that the index had moved up ahead of  its fundamental and was no longer cheap to buy.

Will Greece get IMF's help?

Yes, I believe the probability is very high that Greece will get funds from IMF and as usual, IMF will impose strict economic policies for Greece in exchange for its funds.  The air travel impasse caused by the volcanic clouds looks set to exacerbate the exigency.

Is Goldman Sach saga the trigger for market correction?

Well, it depends on how far the US government will want to pursue the path of justice.  If Goldman Sach just gets away with just a multi-million fine, the world market will not spin into a free fall but if this incident leads to a breakup of Goldman Sach which in my view is very remote, then it will be a trigger for a major correction for the world market.

Abterra has the potential to be a multi-bagger.

Abterra is in the business of commodity trading (iron ore, coal & coke) but has also started to expand its business downstream and upstream by acquiring coal mines, logistics company & processing factories. Abterra has businesses in india, australia, indonesia & china presently and will make a foray into thailand in the future.

Judging from the M&A activities around the world, commodity business seems to be a piping hot plate now. Recently, india has also started to jump on the bandwagon to acquire coal mines for its own needs while Noble (another Singapore listed company) is trying to take full control of gloucester coal mine in australia.

Abterra is currently a mid-cap stock and if it executes its strategy right, it will likely catch the eyes of fund managers and/or be acquired by the bigger player. The coke prices have been going up by leaps & bounds after the financial crisis in 2007 and this will benefit abterra tremendously and increase its profit exponentially in 2010.

With china & india relentless economic expansions, there is no turning back for abterra. The last closing price is $0.06 and the 100-day simple moving average on the trading volume shows that investors have started to accumulate this stock. Don't miss the boat now!

The stock market is in a conundrum!

The stock market trading volume, from the 100-day simple moving average, is still at a low level compared to its peak when the sti was around 3500. This shows that the rise in the stock market is not sustainable as the market is propped up by institutional funds only. The market has run ahead of its fundamental as not many companies reported more than 50% increase in their financial statements.

Retail investors won't be able to support the market like this as they have very short time horizon and also lack the money resources. Only institutional funds can support the market under low liquidity. The time will come for the institutions to cash out and hand over the baton to the next buyer. When that time comes, the market will correct.