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Thursday, February 6, 2020

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 0.965 0.68 Sell PB0.8x
02/22/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.05 1.12 Hold PER10x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.14 1.22 Hold PB1.5x
03/13/19 Lim & Tan Hi-P 1.75 0 Avoid overvalued
04/09/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.63 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
05/06/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.29 1.22 Hold PB1.5x FY19
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.43 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
08/05/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.34 1.32 Hold PER12x FY20
10/10/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.19 1.21 Hold PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.39 Hold
11/01/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.34 Sell PB1.5x FY20

Stock calls for 6 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/06/20 Tayrona Clearbridge 0.139 0.41 Overweight
02/06/20 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.14 2.45 Buy DCF, PER18.1x FY20
02/06/20 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.78 2.1 Buy
02/06/20 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 1.04 1.12 Buy DDM
02/06/20 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 1.04 1.15 Buy DCF
02/06/20 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 1.04 0 Hold
02/06/20 CIMB SATS 4.46 4.07 Reduce
02/06/20 CIMB SIA 8.59 8.46 Hold

Total reported coronavirus cases in China.

The official figures from the Central Government might have underdeclared the true situation in China.  Let's just take these with a heavy pinch of salt.


Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Haw Par 12.39 0 Buy

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.097 0.19 Buy
03/04/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.112 0.17 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.081 0.08 Neutral DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.069 0.08 Neutral
08/20/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.074 0.08 Neutral DCF
10/08/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.066 0.08 Neutral DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/04/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.25 0.34 Add PER10x FY20
08/19/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.22 0.22 Hold

Stock calls for 5 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/05/20 Phillip ART 1.24 1.53 Buy DDM
02/05/20 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.51 0.68 Buy
02/05/20 UOB Kay Hian Food Empire 0.66 0.89 Buy

The real situation in Wuhan.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-outbreak-video-shows-dead-bodies-in-halls-of-china-hospital/

There is speculation that the true situation in China is 10x more than the official numbers.

The cremation facilities in Wuhan are working 24/7 now to burn the corpses and this has been on-going for the past few days.

 If the death toll is only 490, the cremation facilities will not need to operate 24/7 for the past few days to burn the corpses.  Many corpses are piling up at the cremation facilities now.

China has acknowledged that the coronavirus has mutated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/researchers-say-the-coronavirus-may-be-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html

OMG!  This virus will spread faster and infect more people because it is more potent now.

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for spreading the coronavirus.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-business-meeting-linked-malaysian-054110183.html

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for being a transmission hub now because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia and South Korea.

Look like SG is being famous for the wrong reason now.

Becareful! The stock markets are being artificially supported now!

The stock markets are artificially inflated now.  Why?

Many listed companies will suffer from declining revenues due to the coronavirus outbreak because of reduced human activities.  However, these stock prices stay elevated artificially.

When the numbers of infectious cases and death tolls keep rising, the stock markets also keep rising.  Does this make any sense at all?  This makes no sense at all because the virus outbreak has not reached its peak and there is no sign of the outbreak abating.  This is especially true when China is not providing a true figure about its infectious cases and fatality rates.


US suspended flights to Hong Kong due to local transmission.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/major-us-airlines-add-hong-kong-to-china-flight-suspensions

Singapore also has 4 local transmission cases and 24 infected cases that surpass HK's.

Is the US going to suspend flights to SG because SG is also an air hub too?

Hangzhou is in lockdown now!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hangzhou-and-taizhou-cities-far-from-virus-epicentre-implement-12388714

The virus outbreak is spreading in China as more cities are in lockdown.  Hangzhou is just about 100++km away from Shanghai.

Community transmission is already happening in China!

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-coronavirus-singapore-community-spread-tourists-12389314

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

Singapore is a densely populated country and this poses a high risk for any virus transmission.

I hope that our medical practices and procedures can contain the virus transmission.

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.245 0.36 Buy
03/07/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.235 0.3 Buy PER10x
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy
05/24/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate
07/04/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.225 0.24 Accumulate
08/23/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.188 0.19 Neutral PER10x

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
05/27/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.265 0.27 Hold
05/28/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.26 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.26 0.21 Sell
08/16/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.295 0.22 Sell Sum of parts
08/19/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.29 0.27 Sell
09/30/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.23 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
10/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.21 0.16 Sell PER13x FY20
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.265 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
11/15/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.245 0.26 Hold
11/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Hold
11/22/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.235 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/20/20 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Buy Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 4 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/20 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.13 3.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers ART 1.26 1.5 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.58 1.65 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
02/04/20 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.13 2.38 Neutral DCF
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.84 2.95 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 2.27 2.4 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.21 1.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.78 3 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.85 1.9 Buy
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.49 4.8 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA 8.49 9.1 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.58 3.13 Buy
02/04/20 Amfrasers Soilbuild Reit 0.5 0.55 Neutral
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.715 0.8 Buy DCF
02/04/20 CIMB UMS 0.925 0.96 Hold BVPS
02/04/20 DMG & Partners UOB 25.3 25.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.11x FY20

Guangzhou has fallen!

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-03/Coronavirus-detected-on-doorknob-in-S-China-s-Guangzhou-NMua1LcOWY/index.html

The coronavirus has spread to Guangzhou.

It looks like community transmission has occurred in China.

China is trying very hard to keep Beijing safe now.  All hell will break loose if Beijing cannot be free from the virus outbreak.

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-market-regulator-guidance/china-regulator-urges-fund-managers-not-to-sell-shares-unless-they-face-redemptions-sources-idUSKBN1ZX0C4

China is trying to stabilize its financial sector by asking fund managers not to sell stocks and also pump monetary liquidity into its financial system.  Although China will be able to rein in the financial repercussions from the virus outbreak, the real economy will be badly affected because consumption will drop into the abyss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-oil-demand-plunged-20-231351018.html

China's oil demand had plunged by 20% since the start of the outbreak.

The other sectors like retail, tourism, F&B, transportation, etc, are all badly affected because the Chinese are trying to cut down on human interactions.  When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Any monetary or fiscal policy will be useless in stimulating the economy unless the virus can be contained or eliminated.

The whole world will be severely affected when China starts to reduce its imports significantly due to the rapid deterioration in its local consumption.

Monday, February 3, 2020

Is the January 2020 PMI an aberration?


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The ISM PMI rose to 50.9 in Jan 2020 primarily due to a huge increase in the new order that also led to increases in customers’ inventories and production.

The prices rose to 53.3 due to an increase in imports and a reduction in the local raw material.  This PMI might be a precursor to an improvement in the next US GDP growth.  However, the coronavirus epidemic might also thwart this turnaround.  Therefore, we need to observe the epidemic situation closely to determine if this turnaround in US economic growth will materialize in the foreseeable future or not.


http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-us-ism-pmi-declined-again-in.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
07/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.155 0.15 Neutral
08/29/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.15 0.14 Neutral DCF
09/24/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.148 0.14 Neutral DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19 Citibank Genting 1.07 1.28 Buy
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF
05/10/19 Citibank Genting 0.95 1.16 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.86 1.02 Neutral
06/24/19 CIMB Genting 0.93 1.06 Add
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.9 1.11 Buy
08/06/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.885 0.99 Hold
08/06/19 Citibank Genting 0.885 1.07 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB Genting 0.885 1 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.885 1.2 Buy
08/06/19 Lim & Tan Genting 0.885 0 Hold
10/01/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.88 1.2 Buy
10/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.925 1.11 Buy
11/08/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.96 0.99 Hold EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.96 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.96 1.11 Buy
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.915 0.97 Neutral
01/14/20 DBS Vickers Genting 0.92 1.2 Buy

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.24 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
07/09/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.29 Buy
08/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.215 0 Buy
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
08/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.285 Buy
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy
09/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.23 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.22 0.24 Buy DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.225 0.24 Buy DCF
11/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.225 0 Buy
11/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.235 0.295 Buy
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.27 Buy DCF
12/13/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.25 0 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.255 0.27 Buy
01/15/20 DBS Vickers Fu Yu 0.25 0.35 Buy PER16x FY20
01/15/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.29 Buy DCF