US housing downturn is brewing again!

The US 30-year mortgage rate is fast approaching 5% and it won't stop rising.

The US home sales have been trending down because of rising interest rates in 2018.

This property downturn doesn't bode well for the USA because it will affect the main street and the wall street.  Property stocks and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be badly affected and we'll have a US financial crisis again.

Fake Singapore dollar alert!

There are fake Singapore dollars appearing in Hougang area.  Please be careful!

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/24/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.92	1.53	Add	Sum of parts, PER11.6x CY17
02/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	1.02	1.26	Buy
03/03/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.9	1.41	Add	Sum of parts
03/06/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.89	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.1x FY17
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.835	1.25	Buy
04/17/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.805	0.69	Reduce	Sum of parts
04/24/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.63	1	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.5x FY17, PER10.5x FY17
05/02/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.605	0.58	Reduce	Sum of parts, PER8.2x CY17, PER7.2x CY18
05/02/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.84	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY17
07/05/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.65	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts
07/31/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.595	0.55	Reduce	Sum of parts
06/22/18	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.625	0.86	Buy	Sum of parts, PER14x FY18
08/01/18	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.745	0.86	Buy	Sum of parts
09/11/18	CIMB	Japfa	0.595	0.8	Add	Sum of parts
10/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.61	0.9	Buy	Sum of parts, PER12.2x FY18

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/17/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.445	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY18
05/29/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.48	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER18.7x FY18
08/04/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF
11/15/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF
02/14/18	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.46	0.54	Buy	DCF
05/07/18	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.505	0.63	Buy	DCF, PER19x FY19
05/22/18	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.485	0.64	Buy	DCF
06/22/18	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.5	0.63	Buy
08/08/18	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.49	0.58	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.6x FY19
08/21/18	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.5	0.64	Buy	DCF

Jadason - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.07	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
06/27/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.088	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
07/03/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.084	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/04/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.103	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/07/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.1	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
09/04/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.102	0.12	Buy	DCF, PER11.4x FY18
09/05/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.095	0.13	Add	PER12.34x FY18
11/09/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.093	0.1	Buy	DCF, PER11.3x FY18
11/13/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.087	0.11	Add	PER12.34x FY19
03/01/18	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.073	0.08	Neutral	DCF
03/07/18	CIMB	Jadason	0.07	0.08	Add	PER12.34x FY19
05/16/18	CIMB	Jadason	0.05	0.077	Add	PB1x CY18
05/18/18	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.05	0.05	Neutral	DCF
06/27/18	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.04	0.05	Neutral
08/17/18	CIMB	Jadason	0.037	0.073	Add	PB1x CY18

Stock calls for 22 October 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/22/18	UOB Kay Hian	Asian Healthcare	0.265	0.33	Buy
10/22/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.43	1.7	Buy	DCF
10/22/18	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.43	1.56	Buy
10/22/18	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.43	1.5	Hold	DDM
10/22/18	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.64	0	Hold
10/22/18	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.535	0.65	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
10/22/18	phillip	SGX	6.93	9.01	Buy	PER25.2x
10/22/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	6.93	8.4	Buy	PER23x FY19
10/22/18	OCBC	SGX	6.93	7.96	Buy	PER22x F19/20
10/22/18	CIMB	SGX	6.93	7.6	Add	PER22.1x FY20

Nuclear arms race is happening again!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-us-withdraw-nuclear-201727884.html

Trump has announced that the US will withdraw from the nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

Great, we will have more nuclear arms that can destroy the earth now!

Russia and US will ramp up their nuclear weapons now.

Xi Jinping and Trump agreed to meet in G20 in November 2018.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2169378/xi-jinping-donald-trump-agree-talks-g20-summit-next-month

This tentative meeting is based upon a friendly agreement.  If there is an unfriendly gesture from the US prior to G20 summit, Xi will definitely cancel the meeting.

Apple urged Bloomberg to retract the fake spy chip story.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ceo-urges-bloomberg-retract-spy-chip-story-230310532--finance.html

Apple felt insulted by the fake Bloomberg's spy chip story and demanded Bloomberg to retract it because there was no way that Bloomberg understood technology better than Apple.

We stated previously that it was impossible to produce such a rice grain size 3-in-1 microchip.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-us-is-embarking-on-anti-china.html

Japan is no longer a member of the UN security council.

Japan is no longer a member of the UN security council in 2018.  The UN security council is made up of 15 members with 5 being permanent members whilst the rest are holding a 2-year renewable member seat.

Baltic dry index - 1576

Today, Friday , October 19 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 11 points, reaching 1576 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 1067

The number of oil rigs in the United States increased by 4 to 873 in the week ending October 19 compared to the previous week, according to the Baker Hughes weekly rig count released on Friday.

The number of gas rigs in the US rose by 1 to 194 during the same week, bringing the total number of rigs in the country to 1,067. On an annual basis, the oil rig count was up 137.

In Canada, the total rig count was down by 4 with the number of oil rigs decreasing by 4 to 123 and gas rigs remaining unchanged at 68. Compared to the previous year, the number of oil rigs in Canada was was down by 11.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Malaysia has no money to build HSR but has money to build a crooked bridge to Singapore.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/johor-revive-crooked-bridge-project-104503225.html

What a joke! A stupid idea is being revived again!

Mahathir has to revive the national car ideology and the crooked bridge so that he can incentivize himself.

Sigh!

ISOTeam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.395	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER14x FY17
01/12/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.405	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/14/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.42	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/15/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.405	0.59	Buy	DCF, PER13.5x FY17
03/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.395	0.6	Buy
05/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.37	0.54	Buy
08/28/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.5	Buy	DCF
11/13/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.46	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18
02/13/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.355	0.45	Buy	PER10.4x FY18
02/15/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.33	0.46	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18
05/17/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.35	0.42	Buy	DCF
06/27/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.335	0.42	Buy

Isec Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/05/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.345	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18
07/13/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.315	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18

ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/17	NRA	ISDN	0.27	0.3	Overweight
03/29/17	NRA	ISDN	0.197	0.32	Overweight	PER14.66x FY17
06/15/17	NRA	ISDN	0.225	0.32	Overweight	PER14.7x FY17
06/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.225	0.35	Buy	PER10.6x FY18
07/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.22	0.35	Buy
07/26/17	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.225	0	Trading Buy
08/08/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.26	0.35	Buy
08/15/17	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.26	0	Sell	Take profit
11/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.245	0.35	Buy
02/20/18	NRA	ISDN	0.22	0.32	Overweight	PER12.5x FY18
02/20/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.22	0.35	Buy
02/20/18	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.22	0	Trading Buy
02/28/18	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.23	0	Take Profit
05/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.21	0.365	Buy
08/13/18	NRA	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Overweight	PER7.3x FY18

Stock calls for 19 October 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/19/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.41	0	Hold
10/19/18	SAC Advisors	Hong Lai Huat	0.2	0.51	Buy	RNAV (40% discount), PB0.8x FY18
10/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.76	6.79	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $6.10
10/19/18	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.76	7.97	Buy
10/19/18	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.76	8.28	Add	Sum of parts
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.73	0.95	Buy
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.7	12.4	Hold
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.585	0.65	Buy	DCF
10/19/18	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.585	0.665	Buy
10/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.96	2.3	Buy	DCF
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.48	31.7	Buy
10/19/18	JP Morgan	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.4	Neutral

SIA's notes coupon is higher than Temasek's bond.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sia-prices-s600m-notes-issue-names-shells-goh-swee-chen-as-board-director

We had stated yesterday that the Temasek's bond was not attractive.

True enough, SIA prices its notes much higher than Temasek.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/temasek-5-year-retail-bond-yield-of-27.html

The US-China trade war will intensify.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economic-policy-toward-china-tougher-economists-reuters-012214372--business.html

This is not surprising as Trump sees no reason not to.  We've stated the rationale for such a scenario below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/jp-morgan-sees-all-out-trade-war.html

China GDP was growing at 6.5% in Q3 2018.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/instant-view-chinas-third-quarter-gdp-rises-6-023650286--business.html

The China economy is slowing down and it will affect the global markets because China contributes around 39% of the world GDP growth.

The global stock markets cannot continue to rise when the global economies are slowing down.