SMRT has MRT door safety issue!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/smrt-station-manager-suspended-train-moves-off-door-open-033702093.html

Look like the door issue is a common safety problem for MRT.  Even the new MRT has this door safety issue.

We had highlighted this before.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/smrt-safety-is-in-doubt-again.html

Singapore is heading towards a political collision course with Malaysia in the future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/malaysias-mahathir-says-he-will-side-with-china-over-us-scmp.html

Malaysia has chosen to side with China when the inevitable occurrence comes.  What about Singapore? Whose side will we be on?

SG is very likely to side the USA in our view. Why?

This is because most of our military weapons are US-based including our fighter jets.  Our F15, F16 and F35 won't have the spare parts to fly if we side with China.  Our missiles defense systems also cannot work when we are not in the same camp as the US since we are using GPS and not Beidou.

Without our military defense, we will be very vulnerable and Malaysia can just walk over us.  If our government doesn't diversify our military defense, we will be locked down forever by the USA.

However, we will be at war with Malaysia when we are not in the same camp as Malaysia.

It is time to purchase Russian and Chinese military defense systems.

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.855	0.91	Buy	DDM
01/04/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.65	Sell
01/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.89	Add	DDM
01/05/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.875	0.83	Hold
01/31/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0.93	Buy	DCF
01/31/18	Lim & Tan	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0	Hold
02/20/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.845	0.95	Buy
04/04/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.795	0.95	Buy
04/10/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.92	Add
04/17/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.815	0.93	Buy
05/03/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.92	Add	DDM
05/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.95	Buy	DDM
05/03/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.84	Hold	Buy @ $0.78 or lower
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.765	0.93	Buy
07/30/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.89	Add	DDM
07/30/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.9	Buy	DCF
07/31/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.805	0.79	Hold
09/20/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.65	Sell
10/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
10/10/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.79	Buy
10/16/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.8	Buy	DDM
11/08/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Add	DDM
11/08/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.8	Buy
11/08/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.85	Buy	DCF
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy
11/19/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	665	0.77	Buy
12/06/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.77	Buy
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.67	Hold
02/01/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.75	Hold	DDM
02/01/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.69	Hold
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.755	0.73	Hold	DCF
03/19/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.715	0.73	Hold
03/23/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.75	Hold	DDM
05/11/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.68	Hold
08/02/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.695	0.73	Hold
08/03/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.75	Hold	DDM
08/03/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.67	Hold	DCF
09/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.6	Hold	DDM
09/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.67	Hold
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.475	0.48	Hold
11/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.47	Hold	DCF
11/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.57	Hold	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy

OUE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/18	OCBC	OUE	1.93	2.28	Buy
05/14/18	OCBC	OUE	1.81	2.25	Buy
09/06/18	OCBC	OUE	1.57	2.25	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE	1.54	3	Buy
11/13/18	OCBC	OUE	1.37	2.25	Buy
11/19/18	Deutsche	OUE	1.41	3	Buy
02/28/19	OCBC	OUE	1.66	2.32	Buy

Stock calls for 11 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.57	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
03/11/19	CIMB	DBS	25.06	29	Add
03/11/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PER10x F20
03/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.05	12	Hold
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts
03/11/19	OCBC	Singtel	2.94	3.79	Buy
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.94	3.09	Neutral	Sum of parts
03/11/19	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.94	0	Hold
03/11/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.5	1.53	Hold	Ringgit target $4.60, PER24x CY20
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.205	0.32	Buy	PER10x FY20
03/11/19	CIMB	UOB	24.91	29	Add

What is Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)?

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/tltro/html/index.en.html

TLTRO is basically a quantitative easing policy.

The 1st TLTRO started in June 2014 and ended in June 2018.  After the 1st TLTRO ended, the stock markets fared badly at the end of 2018.  Therefore, we could see that TLTRO had a great impact on the stock markets.

The 2nd TLTRO started in March 2016 and would end in March 2020.  After seeing the repercussion for the end of the 1st TLTRO, the ECB has decided to launch a 3rd TLTRO to prevent a repeat of the previous outcome for the end of the 2nd TLTRO.

Why? This is because the 2nd TLTRO is much bigger than the first one.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-explainer/explainer-what-is-the-fuss-about-european-central-bank-tltro-loans-idUSKCN1QL1HP

The total outstanding credit amount stood at EUR$761b as at end March 2017.

George Soros has just ditched crypto (bitcoin).

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/09/precious-metals-firm-drops-crypto-is-the-bitcoin-digital-gold-narrative-in-trouble/

When George Soros won't accept crypto like bitcoin, he is signaling to others that bitcoin has no future.

Even the Japanese giant, Mizuho, has developed a digital token based on the QR code system and not blockchain.

https://www.coinspeaker.com/japan-mizuho-j-coin-cryptocurrency/

We had stated previously that reputable financial firms won't use any public blockchain because of security, private and confidential issues.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html

HKMA has intervened in HKD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-steps-defend-peg-224736691.html

The HKMA has to either intervened in the currency market or up the interest rates.  As the interest rate hikes will disrupt the property market, it is safer to intervene in the currency market.

If you want to know more about the HKD depreciation, please read our previous post below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/hong-kong-dollar-has-been-depreciating.html

Baltic dry index - 657

Today, Thursday, March 07 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 7 points, reaching 657 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

===================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1038

The US drilling rig count is down 9 units to 1,038 rigs working for the week ended Mar. 1, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is up 57 units from the 981 rigs working this time a year ago.

Week-over-week, 11 fewer rigs were drilling on land, bringing that count 1,015. Three additional rigs were counted offshore, bringing the total number of units drilling to 22. Inland waters dropped a single unit, leaving 1 rig working for the week.

US oil-directed rigs dropped 10 units from last week to 843 units working but remained up from the 800 rigs drilling for oil this week a year ago. Gas-directed rigs were up a single unit at 195, and up from the 181 units drilling for gas a year ago.

Among the major oil and gas-producing states, California, with 15 rigs working for the week, saw the largest increase. The only other addition was a single-unit gain in Louisiana, bringing the state’s total to 65 rigs drilling.

Five states were unchanged this week: Pennsylvania, 44; Colorado, 34; West Virginia, 19; Ohio, 18; and Utah, 8.

Texas, at 503 rigs, dropped 5 units from last week. Oklahoma, 115, and Alaska, 11, each dropped 2 units.

Three states dropped a single unit this week: New Mexico, 107; North Dakota, 56; and Wyoming, 36.

Canada dropped a single unit for the week ended Mar. 1. With 211 rigs working, the count is less than the 302 units drilling this week a year ago.

The number of oil-directed rigs in Canada fell by 4, bringing the count to 140 rigs for the week. Gas-directed rigs were up 3 to 71 units.

=====================

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Old Chang Kee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.745	0.98	Buy	DCF
03/19/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.76	0.98	Buy
04/16/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.775	0.98	Buy
05/31/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.755	0.98	Buy	DCF, PER22.6x FY19

Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/18	DBS Vickers	Olam	2.25	2.31	Hold	DCF & PER16.1x
04/03/18	DBS Vickers	Olam	2.32	2.31	Hold

OKP - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/20/18	Amfrasers	OKP	0.35	0.39	Hold

Stock calls for 8 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/08/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.74	Add	DCF
03/08/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.43	0.45	Neutral
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x
03/08/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.078	0.16	Buy	PER30x

EU economic situation is getting dire.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/draghi-slashes-ecb-outlook-officials-135649913.html

The ECB has revived the TLTRO policy to stimulate the EU economies because the situation is getting dire.

We did warn about this in our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-and-europe-will-slip-into.html

Furthermore, Italy has decided to join China's OBR initiatives despite some resistance from other EU members because of its poor economy.  Italy wants to make use of China to revive its economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/06/italy-set-to-support-chinas-belt-and-road-program-ft-report-says.html

As we can see, many EU members want to take advantage of China's economic growth but still want to contain China's developments simultaneously.  How despicable is that?

Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB.

China A50

CNY (RMB)

From the 2 charts above, we can see that there is an inverse relationship between RMB and China A50.  Therefore, investors who are interested in China A50 have to monitor RMB movements as it will affect the trajectory of China A50 on SGX.  If you can predict the future RMB trajectory, you can determine the China A50 trajectory too.

OCBC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.39	13.56	Buy	GGM, PB1.44x FY18
01/05/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	12.95	14	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY18
01/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.95	14.88	Buy	GGM, PB1.58x FY18
01/09/18	Deutsche	OCBC	12.99	13.6	Hold
01/09/18	JP Morgan	OCBC	12.99	14.2	Neutral	Up from $12.5
01/10/18	phillip	OCBC	12.91	13.48	Buy
02/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.26	14.88	Buy
02/05/18	Macquarie	OCBC	12.81	14	Outperform
02/05/18	JP Morgan	OCBC	12.81	14.5	Overweight
02/12/18	phillip	OCBC	12.19	13.48	Buy
02/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.26	14.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.56x FY18
02/15/18	Kim Eng	OCBC	12.26	13.5	Hold	PB1.4x FY18
02/15/18	Credit Suisse	OCBC	12.26	14.7	Outperform
02/15/18	CIMB	OCBC	12.26	14	Add	GGM, PB1.4x FY18, PER11.7x FY19
02/15/18	Jefferies	OCBC	12.26	14	Buy
02/15/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	12.26	14	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY18
02/22/18	UBS	OCBC	13	14.5	Buy
02/22/18	phillip	OCBC	13	13.94	Buy	GGM, PB1.46x
02/22/18	Jefferies	OCBC	13	15.2	Buy
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.21	14.9	Buy
03/08/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.21	14.95	Buy	GGM, PB1.54x FY18
03/20/18	Kim Eng	OCBC	13.18	14.83	Buy
03/22/18	Lim & Tan	OCBC	13.42	0	Buy
04/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.77	14.95	Buy
04/16/18	Credit Suisse	OCBC	13.08	15.75	Buy
04/20/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.74	16.02	Buy	GGM, PB1.64x FY18
04/20/18	CIMB	OCBC	13.74	15	Add	GGM, PB1.5x FY18
04/27/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	13.76	15.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY18
05/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.86	16.02	Buy
05/08/18	Macquarie	OCBC	13.17	14.5	Outperform
05/08/18	CIMB	OCBC	13.17	14	Hold	GGM, PB1.5x FY18
05/08/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.17	16.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.66x FY18
05/08/18	Credit Suisse	OCBC	13.17	15.1	Outperform
05/08/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	13.17	15.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY18
05/08/18	Deutsche	OCBC	13.17	14	Hold
05/09/18	phillip	OCBC	13.08	14.9	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.6x FY18
05/09/18	Kim Eng	OCBC	13.08	14.6	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY18
06/01/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.54	16.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.68 FY18
06/04/18	phillip	OCBC	12.53	14.9	Accumulate
06/26/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.6	14.28	Buy	GGM, PER1.46x FY18
07/02/18	phillip	OCBC	11.64	14.9	Accumulate
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.51	14.28	Buy
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.5	12.2	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x FY18
07/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.15	13.52	Buy	GGM, PB1.41x FY18
08/01/18	phillip	OCBC	11.57	14.9	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.5x
08/06/18	Macquarie	OCBC	11.35	14.5	Outperform
08/06/18	Jefferies	OCBC	11.35	14	Buy
08/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.58	13.68	Buy	GGM, PB1.42x FY18
08/07/18	Credit Suisse	OCBC	11.58	14.65	Outperform
08/07/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.58	12.4	Hold	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
08/07/18	CIMB	OCBC	11.58	14	Add
09/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.3	13.68	Buy	GGM, PB1.42x FY18
09/25/18	CIMB	OCBC	11.36	14	Add	GGM
09/26/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.45	12.4	Hold
10/02/18	phillip	OCBC	11.45	14.9	Buy
10/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.31	13.68	Buy
10/11/18	Jefferies	OCBC	10.95	14	Buy
10/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.75	14.05	Buy	GGM, PB1.37x FY19
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.7	12.4	Hold
11/01/18	phillip	OCBC	10.74	14.9	Buy
11/01/18	Lim & Tan	OCBC	10.74	0	Buy
11/02/18	CIMB	OCBC	11.15	14	Add	GGM
11/02/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.15	13.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
11/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.15	14.05	Buy	GGM, PB1.37x FY19
11/12/18	Macquarie	OCBC	11.46	13	Outperform
11/12/18	JP Morgan	OCBC	11.46	13.5	Overweight
12/04/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.6	13.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
12/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.6	14.05	Buy
01/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.1	14	Add	PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.05	Buy
01/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.37	13.82	Buy
01/31/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.95	Hold	DDM
02/01/19	phillip	OCBC	11.51	13.7	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.49	13.82	Buy
02/13/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.41	10.95	Hold
02/25/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12	Hold	PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	13.85	Buy
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.39	12.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.73	Hold	DDM
02/27/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.2	13	Outperform	PB
03/04/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	13.7	Buy
03/07/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.22	10.73	Hold

Noble - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/18	Lim & Tan	Noble	0.172	0	Avoid	Suspension alert
04/06/18	Lim & Tan	Noble	0.067	0	Avoid

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/12/18	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	835	0.93	Buy
01/26/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.83	0.95	Buy	DCF
02/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.82	0.93	Buy	DCF
02/07/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.97	Buy	DCF
03/12/18	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.82	0.93	Buy
03/14/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.82	0.91	Buy	DDM
05/15/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.815	0.91	Buy
05/16/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.82	0.9	Buy
05/16/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.97	Buy	DCF
07/02/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.74	0.87	Buy	DCF
08/07/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.78	0.9	Buy
08/07/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.78	0.87	Buy
09/10/18	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy	DDM
09/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.785	0.95	Buy	DCF
10/02/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.785	0.87	Buy
10/11/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.785	0.9	Buy
10/26/18	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.78	0.93	Buy
11/05/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.775	0.87	Buy
11/07/18	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.78	0.93	Buy	DDM
11/07/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.78	0.9	Buy
11/21/18	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.77	0.99	Buy	DCF
12/10/18	OCBC	Netlink	0.765	0.9	Buy
12/17/18	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.76	0.93	Buy	DDM
12/20/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.77	0.87	Buy
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.765	0.99	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.765	0.93	Buy
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.77	0.87	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy	DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.79	0.87	Buy	DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.79	0.99	Buy
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.805	0.92	Buy	DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.805	0.9	Buy