Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.745	0.92	Buy
02/09/21	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.71	0.9	Buy	DCF
02/09/21	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.71	1.1	Buy	DDM
02/09/21	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.71	0.87	Buy
02/09/21	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	0.71	1	Add
02/09/21	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.71	0.83	Buy
02/10/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.715	0.84	Buy	DDM
04/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.73	0.87	Buy	DDM
04/09/21	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.735	0.82	Buy
04/13/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.74	0.84	Buy
05/12/21	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	0.74	0.962	Add	DDM
05/12/21	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.74	0.87	Buy
05/12/21	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.74	1	Buy
05/12/21	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.74	0.82	Buy
05/14/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.735	0.84	Buy	DDM
05/17/21	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.73	0.87	Buy
06/30/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.795	0.84	Buy
08/13/21	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.765	0.88	Buy	DCF
08/13/21	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.765	1	Buy	DDM
08/13/21	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.765	0.84	Buy	DDM
08/25/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.73	0.84	Accumulate
09/07/21	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.73	0.82	Outperform	DDM, Cut from $0.86
09/07/21	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.73	0.9	Buy
11/05/21	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	0.695	0.918	Add	DDM
11/05/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.695	0.84	Accumulate	DDM
11/05/21	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.695	1	Buy	DDM
11/08/21	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.72	0.83	Buy
11/10/21	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.71	0.84	Buy	DDM
12/01/21	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	0.71	0.918	Add	DDM
12/03/21	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.685	0.87	Buy	DDM
12/06/21	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.695	0.84	Accumulate	DDM
12/15/21	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.66	0.9	Buy
02/09/22	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.645	0.87	Accumulate on weakness
02/10/22	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.63	0.95	Buy
02/10/22	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	0.63	0.89	Add
02/10/22	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.63	0.86	Buy
02/10/22	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.63	0.88	Buy
02/11/22	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.65	0.8	Buy
02/17/22	Phillip	Manulife US Reit	0.665	0.86	Buy	DDM
03/15/22	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.63	0.8	Buy	DDM

Livingstone - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/22	SAC Capital	Livingstone	0.147	0.168	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 11 April 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Aztech	0.945	1.55	Buy	PER13.3x FY22
04/11/22	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.47	1.95	Buy	Sum of parts
04/11/22	DBS Vickers	EC World Reit	0.655	0.85	Buy	DCF
04/11/22	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.85	2.96	Add	Sum of parts
04/11/22	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.51	1.51	Neutral	PER19x FY22

US ISM MPI decreased to 57.1 in March 2022.

The prices subindex had increased significantly to 87.1 (+11.5) because of imported high inflation (eg, EU-are inflation) and rising employment costs.  In view of the rising inflation caused by the Ukraine war, the producers increased their inventories to 55.5 (+1.9) by purchasing more local raw material (Est’d +5.5) and reducing imports (51.8, -3.6).

The supplier’s deliveries eased to 65.4 (-0.7) which meant faster deliveries because of lesser imports.  The producers still had difficulties finding workers because of a huge job mismatch between job demand and supply but they still managed to increase their employment to 56.3 (+3.4).  Subsequently, the producers would continue to try to increase their workers in the future as shown by the table below (%Higher & %Same increased but %Lower decreased in March).

The producers reduced their production (54.5, -4) because of declines in new orders (53.8, -7.9), new export orders (53.2, -3.9) and new local orders (Est’d -4).  Consequently, the declines in the orders caused customers’ inventories to rise to 34.1 (+2.3) and the backlog of order to decrease to 60 (-5) since there were lesser unfilled orders.

Therefore, all these factors caused the PMI to decrease to 57.1 (-1.5) in March 2022.  The front-loading orders phenomenon which was caused by the skyrocketing inflation seemed to be over as the consumers had cut back on their spending.  Overall, the US PMI is expected to have a downward trajectory in 2022 because of decreasing new orders.

Baltic dry index - 2055

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 689

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Fed Bullard predicted the US interest rate to be 3.5% by the end of 2022. How did he derive that rate?

https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2022/04/07/bullard-discusses-is-the-fed-behind-the-curve

How did Fed Bullard derive his 3.5% interest rate in 2022?

Bullard derived his 3.5% by tweaking the original Taylor rule.

Let's compute the target rate by using the original Taylor Rule before we work on Bullard's formula.

Neutral rate: 2.4%

GDPe: 3%

GDPt: 2.3%

Ie: 3.6% (Trimmed mean inflation as stated by Bullard)

It: 2% (As stated by Fed)

Original Taylor Rule: We derive the interest rate to be 3.55% in 2022 using the Taylor rule which is very close to Bullard's rate of 3.5%.

Bullard's formula: The neutral rate is replaced by the real interest rate (-0.5%) & inflation target (2%).  The parameter values are also changed to 0 and 1.25 respectively in the modified Taylor rule formula.

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/15/21	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.485	0	Reject offer	offer price $0.50

LHN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/07/21	Phillip	LHN	0.295	0.54	Buy	PER9.5x FY21
09/28/21	Amfrasers	LHN	0.315	0.49	Outperform	PER6x FY22
11/29/21	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.365	0	Take Profit
12/01/21	Phillip	LHN	0.335	0.49	Buy	PER7x FY22
12/23/21	Amfrasers	LHN	0.3	0.44	Outperform