Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0	Buy on weakness
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	Hold	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.35	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
02/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.26	1.42	Add	DDM
01/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.33	1.39	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.4	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.3	Hold	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.44	Add	DDM
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.3	Hold
03/07/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.44	1.45	Hold
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26

Stock calls for 4 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
06/04/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.38	3.03	Buy	Sum of parts
06/04/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.39	1.99	Buy	PB1.8x FY20

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy.

We have put in the above PMI numbers on our PMI flow chart to give our viewers a clearer picture.


The PMI headline number has decreased from 52.8 (April) to 52.1 (May).

Let's suss out the real situation in the US.

The new order increased by 1 because of the new export order (+1.5) but the local order decreased.  In other words, this showed that the local consumption had decreased in May which meant that the US citizens were holding back their purchases.  The new export order increased because Trump forced other smaller nations to buy more from the US with tariff threats.

Although the new order increased by 1 in May, the production sub-index decreased by 1.  This showed that the manufacturers didn't expect the increase to continue and they were just producing to meet their existing orders.  This was substantiated with the increase in customers' inventories and a decline in backlog of orders (-6.7).  The inventories and supplier's deliveries also declined because of the production cut.  The employment sub-index looked set to decline if the production cut persisted because manufacturers would cut inventories first before laying off workers.

The prices sub-index increased by 3.2 because the manufacturers switched to local raw materials which were costlier.  Moreover, the tight labour market also induced the manufacturers to pay higher salaries.

Since local consumption makes up close to 70% of the US economy, the US GDP is likely to decline further as the US citizens are not spending like before as prices have increased.  The US-China trade war is beginning to hurt the US economy now.

Singapore PMI is in a contraction mode (49.9)

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pmi-drops-below-50-for-first-time-in-almost-3-years-024900712.html

Any number below 50 is a contraction phase and PMI is a leading indicator of the GDP.  However, comparing the month-on-month PMI headline numbers is not the right way to interpret the PMI.  It looks like our next GDP number won't look good from the PMI.

Please look at our previous post if you want to learn about the interpretation of PMI.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Why must we be vigilant of the political arena in the financial market?

The reason is very simple.  We will get caught in the whirlpool if we are not vigilant of our surroundings.

A youtube video below aptly depicts the gravity of the situation when one is not vigilant.

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.04	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.1	Add	DDM
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	2.22	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19	DIR	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	1.78	Underperform
01/24/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.2	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	1.94	Hold	Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	2.04	Hold
02/15/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.03	Neutral
02/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	1.98	Hold
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.3	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.12	2.3	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.11	2.25	Buy	DDM

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Hold
01/24/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Add	DDM
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	2	Buy	DCF
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.6	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	2	Buy
02/08/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	1.9	Add
03/20/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.83	1.94	Add	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.87	1.8	Hold
04/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Commercial	1.84	1.85	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.89	2	Buy	DCF
05/28/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.93	2.03	Add

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.92	Buy
01/02/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.88	Buy	DCF
02/12/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0	Hold
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.94	Buy	DDM
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.92	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.835	0.95	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.85	0.94	Buy
03/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0	Hold
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.92	Buy
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.97	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0.96	Buy	DDM
05/29/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.86	1	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 3 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	DBS	24.29	27.64	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.149	0.15	Neutral
06/03/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate
06/03/19	OCBC	KSH	0.45	0	Cease coverage
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/03/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.2	3.66	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.49	1.62	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/03/19	CIMB	UOB	23.5	29.58	Add
06/03/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.605	0.63	Hold	PER8x CY20
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)

Omg! Boeing has a wing problem now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-737-max-planes-may-192001217.html

We've taken for granted that the US FAA would do a proper aviation safety certification for planes.  It is proven that the FAA is an irresponsible entity and is no longer an independent organization.

If every aviation safety authority starts to check on Boeing, I believe more problems can be found.  We must not trust the FAA anymore.

The US defense secretary is fear-mongering about China threat in Singapore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/acting-us-defense-secretary-calls-053048457.html

If China's military defence budget of US$176B for 2019 is a threat, then what about the US's military budget of US$686B for 2019? US military budget is 3.9x more than China but China population is 4.7x greater than the USA.

Which one is more of a threat? Spending US$176B to protect 1.4B people or US$686B to protect 300M people?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The US is really treating Asians as stupid people.

Baltic dry index - 1097

Today, Thursday, May 30 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 10 points, reaching 1097 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 984

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms. - Part 2

https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/huawei-reinstated-in-sd-association/

IEEE, SD and Wifi associations have started to reinstate Huawei after the removal.

It looks like China's blacklist is working wonders.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-will-create-blacklist-for.html

If the China blacklist is upheld to the US standards of the entity list, the blacklist will disrupt the supply chains for foreign companies on the list.

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/shangri-la-china-face-off-not-strategic-inevitability-pm-lee-11585858

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again.  No wonder he keeps siding with the USA because he belittles China too much.

Yes, China cannot take down the US but the US also cannot take down China.  Just look at Russia!

The US cannot take down Russia even though the US economy and military prowess are much bigger.  Why? This is because both countries have large nuclear arsenals and going to war with each other is self-annihilating.  It will be an internecine war with China too.

China's economy will overtake the US in less than a decade if China GDP is still growing at the current rate.  The earliest will be in 2025 and the latest by 2030.  If we use PPP to measure the GDP, China is already the largest GDP in the world as compiled by PWC.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/02/china-is-worlds-largest-economy-based.html

China is just as resilient as the US because it has the support of 1.4B people.  The large local market size is able to revitalize China economy when there is an economic war with the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

ECB's simulation also showed that China would win the trade war.  How did our PM Lee derive his conclusion?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/09/ecb-simulation-showed-that-china-would.html

Look like our PM Lee has lost touch with the China situation.  I'm very worried about SG future now after reading his speech.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-blacklist-us-unreliable-firms-huawei-trade-war-11585662

This will force companies to choose to do businesses either in the US or in China.  Who started this? USA!

Look like Google and Microsoft will be on the blacklist.  Many semiconductor manufacturers will be on the list too.

The business climate has changed.  Ceos have to choose between the USA and China now.

At the end of the day, all businesses will have a much smaller pie now because they cannot do businesses in both countries (US and China).

China has reaffirmed the friendship with Malaysia with a communique.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/a-day-after-mahathir-voiced-support-for-huawei-chinas-ambassador-to-malaysia-says-the-countries-will-be-friends-forever/

Communique - "Friendship Forever China-Malaysia"

This lengthy public article with 1,171 words was published on the embassy's FB signified an extraordinary milestone that Singapore couldn't achieve with China.  I am kinda worried about the strengthened relationship between China and Malaysia because SG will be marginalized by this strong bonding that SG has forsaken.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

India got backstabbed by the USA!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-says-end-of-india-trade-preference--done-deal--11583058

We've been warning that the US is not a reliable and credible country.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/india-pays-high-price-to-get-cozy-with.html

India and SG must learn from history.

When you take history seriously, history will repeat itself.