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Friday, July 3, 2020

Stock calls for 3 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/03/20DBS VickersART1.021.1Buy
07/03/20DMG & PartnersAvi-Tech0.410.5Buy
07/03/20DBS VickersCapitaCommercial1.751.95Buy
07/03/20DBS VickersCapitamall Trust2.032.4Buy
07/03/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.471.68Buy
07/03/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.665.1Buy
07/03/20phillipDBS21.2820.6Neutral
07/03/20DBS VickersFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.342.95Buy
07/03/20DBS VickersFrasers Logistics1.211.4Buy
07/03/20DMG & PartnersFrencken0.910.9Buy
07/03/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2350.28Buy
07/03/20CIMBIfast Corp1.451.65AddSum of parts
07/03/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7150.75Buy
07/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.7150.78Buy
07/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.7150Hold
07/03/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.680.85Buy
07/03/20phillipOCBC9.189.14Neutral
07/03/20DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.240.24Neutral
07/03/20AmfrasersSingapore o&g0.260.32NeutralPER16x
07/03/20DBS VickersSingtel2.513.09Buy
07/03/20Kim EngSPH Reit0.8850.8HoldDDM
07/03/20Lim & TanSPH Reit0.8850Hold
07/03/20DBS VickersThai Beverage0.6750.9Buy
07/03/20phillipUOB20.6120.7Neutral
07/03/20DMG & PartnersValuetronics0.560.5Sell
07/03/20DMG & PartnersVenture16.4815.1Neutral
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Thursday, July 2, 2020

The ISM PMI has turned around in June.



The PMI prices sub-index increased to 51.3 the producers were able to raise prices due to huge increases in employment and new orders. The government stimulus cheques were greasing the consumer spendings which were reflected by a huge spike in new local order. This increasing consumption was causing the production to increase to meet the spiking demands.

Is this improvement sustainable or just an aberration?

If the US cannot contain the 2nd wave of outbreak, this will not be sustainable.  We are starting to see the 2nd outbreak in the US now.
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Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/29/19DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.421.55Buy
10/25/19DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.551.65BuyDDM
12/19/19DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.531.65Buy
02/04/20DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.581.65Buy
02/07/20DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.651.85Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.651.85Buy
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Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19DBS VickersAscendas Hospitality Trust1.041.21BuyPegged to ART
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Ascott Residential Trust (ART) - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19OCBCART1.281.31Hold
07/04/19CIMBART1.281.15HoldDDM
07/04/19UOB Kay HianART1.281.46Buy
07/05/19PhillipART1.311.36AccumulateDDM
07/31/19CIMBART1.31.31HoldDDM
07/31/19UOB Kay HianART1.31.54Buy
07/31/19DBS VickersART1.31.45Buy
08/02/19DIRART1.321.34Outperform
08/02/19Kim EngART1.321.3Hold
08/02/19PhillipART1.321.36AccumulateDDM
08/27/19UOB Kay HianART1.31.54Buy
09/24/19PhillipART1.311.36Accumulate
10/09/19DBS VickersART1.321.45Buy
10/11/19PhillipART1.311.42Accumulate
10/22/19OCBCART1.371.31Hold
10/31/19UOB Kay HianART1.41.66BuyDDM
11/01/19Kim EngART1.381.35HoldDDM
11/04/19CIMBART1.371.34Hold
11/04/19OCBCART1.371.41Hold
11/22/19UOB Kay HianART1.311.66BuyDDM
11/25/19PhillipART1.321.36Accumulate
11/25/19DBS VickersART1.321.45Buy
12/19/19Kim EngART1.351.4HoldDDM
01/31/20Kim EngART1.271.4HoldDDM
01/31/20DBS VickersART1.271.5Buy
02/03/20UOB Kay HianART1.261.57Buy
02/04/20DBS VickersART1.261.5Buy
02/05/20PhillipART1.241.53BuyDDM
02/19/20OCBCART1.261.4Buy
03/13/20PhillipART11.53Accumulate
03/16/20OCBCART0.951.11Buy
03/20/20UOB Kay HianART0.721.24BuyDDM
04/13/20Lim & TanART0.8550Hold
04/21/20DBS VickersART0.8851.1Buy
05/05/20UOB Kay HianART0.861.16BuyDDM
05/08/20PhillipART0.861.17BuyDDM
06/01/20DBS VickersART0.961.1Buy
06/08/20CIMBART1.051.21Add
06/08/20UOB Kay HianART1.051.16Buy
07/02/20UOB Kay HianART11.16Buy
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Stock calls for 2 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/02/20UOB Kay HianART11.16Buy
07/02/20UOB Kay HianCapitamall Trust22.6Buy
07/02/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.481.65BuyDCF, PER16x FY21
07/02/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.50.62Buy
07/02/20DBS VickersFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.322.95BuySum of parts, PB1.45x
07/02/20UOB Kay HianFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.322.85Buy
07/02/20UOB Kay HianGenting0.7650.8HoldBuy @ $0.68
07/02/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.111.3Buy
07/02/20CIMBKoufu0.6950.86AddPER19x FY21
07/02/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.93.25BuyDCF
07/02/20Lim & TanSingtel2.470Buy
07/02/20DBS VickersWilmar4.14.6BuySum of parts, PER19.6x FY20
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Why is China slowing its monetary easing!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-signaling-slowing-210000899.html

China is cognizant of the impending risks of monetary easing and it is slowing its monetary easing to prevent the economic malaise (overinflation) that we've envisioned.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/emerging-markets-have-to-watch-out-for.html

We've seen this played out many times.  The SG and HK property markets are good examples of such consequences.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hong-kong-protestors-know-nothing.html
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Emerging markets have to watch out for overinflated assets!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/portfolio-inflows-emerging-markets-continue-143622938.html

As stated in our previous posting, emerging market inflows increase many folds because monies flow to high-interest yielding countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

These emerging markets will have to watch out for overinflated assets such as the stock markets and properties because the western investors will cash out from these emerging markets in the future leaving the local investors with overpriced assets.  In other words, these local investors will be saddled with tremendous losses in the future.
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Who proposed the 10m population in Singapore?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vivian-balakrishnan-slams-chee-soon-juan-over-false-statement-of-10-million-population-plan-171015707.html

It was Liu Thai Ker who proposed the 10m population in SG.  Why didn't the government debunk the false claim by Liu Thai Ker?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/top-stories/singapore-should-plan-for-population-of-10m

The population whitepaper projected a 6.9m population in Singapore by 2030.  Please look at my screenshot taken from the government whitepaper.


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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

ARA Logistics - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.7850.83Buy
07/19/19DBS VickersARA Logistics0.780.75HoldDCF
07/22/19phillipARA Logistics0.7850.75Neutral
07/26/19Kim EngARA Logistics0.7650.9BuyDDM
07/26/19DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.7650.8BuyDDM
07/26/19CIMBARA Logistics0.7650.76HoldDDM
08/26/19phillipARA Logistics0.7250.75Neutral
09/24/19phillipARA Logistics0.7350.75Neutral
10/18/19phillipARA Logistics0.730.75Neutral
10/30/19OCBCARA Logistics0.720.72Hold
11/25/19phillipARA Logistics0.710.75Neutral
12/10/19DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.720.8Buy
01/24/20Kim EngARA Logistics0.7250.8BuyDDM
01/28/20DBS VickersARA Logistics0.7250.75HoldDCF
01/31/20OCBCARA Logistics0.7150.74Hold
03/02/20DBS VickersARA Logistics0.6850.75Hold
03/10/20DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.640.74BuyDDM
03/17/20Kim EngARA Logistics0.5150.8Buy
04/23/20DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.5350.74Buy
04/29/20DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.5250.64BuyDDM
04/29/20DBS VickersARA Logistics0.5250.56HoldDCF
04/30/20CIMBARA Logistics0.530.71Hold
06/12/20UOB Kay HianARA Logistics0.540.69Buy
06/16/20DBS VickersARA Logistics0.5250.7BuyDCF
06/23/20DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.570.64Buy
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ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/16/19UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.8851.15Buy
08/01/19UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.8851.21BuyDDM
10/02/19AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.870.96OutperformDDM
11/07/19UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.861.16BuyDDM
11/07/19AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.860.99OutperformDDM
12/02/19AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.8550.99OutperformDDM
02/20/20AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.860.95Outperform
02/20/20UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.861.25Buy
03/10/20AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.550.95Outperform
04/16/20UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.4450.7BuyDDM
06/12/20UOB Kay HianARA Hospitality0.4250.69BuyDDM
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APTV - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/19/19PhillipAPTV0.170.165NeutralEV/Ebitda9.5x
11/12/19PhillipAPTV0.1710.165NeutralEV/Ebitda9.5x
02/12/20PhillipAPTV0.1670.165NeutralEV/Ebitda10x
04/29/20PhillipAPTV0.1290.15BuyEV/Ebitda10x
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Stock calls for 1 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/01/20DBS VickersA-Reit3.173.45Buy
07/01/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.451.46HoldPER13.1x FY21
07/01/20CIMBDBS20.8518.8Hold
07/01/20CIMBFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.312.49AddDDM
07/01/20DBS VickersFrencken0.881.02BuyPER10.4x FY21
07/01/20DMG & PartnersGenting0.760.73NeutralEV/Ebitda6x FY21
07/01/20CIMBOCBC98.37Hold
07/01/20DMG & PartnersSGX8.349.2Buy
07/01/20DMG & PartnersSuntec Reit1.411.78BuyDDM
07/01/20CIMBUOB20.2319.04Hold
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

APAC Realty - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/15/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.5450.65BuyDCF
08/06/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5250.65BuyDCF
08/06/19DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.5250.48HoldPER10x FY20
08/08/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.5150.58BuyDCF
08/13/19CIMBAPAC Realty0.510.6AddPER10x FY20
09/12/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.4950.65Buy
11/14/19CIMBAPAC Realty0.5150.66AddDCF
11/14/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5150.6BuyDCF
11/14/19DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.5150.46HoldPER12x FY20
11/18/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.50.55AccumulateDCF
12/16/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5050.6Buy
02/25/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.470.6BuyDCF
02/25/20DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.470.52HoldPER12x FY20
02/25/20CIMBAPAC Realty0.470.61Add
02/26/20PhillipAPAC Realty0.490.55AccumulateDCF
05/29/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.350.6Buy
06/03/20CIMBAPAC Realty0.4050.538AddDCF
06/11/20DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.420.41HoldPER19x FY21
06/15/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.3950.5BuyDCF
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Amara - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
12/11/19DMG & PartnersAmara0.450.88Buy
03/04/20DMG & PartnersAmara0.40.78BuyRNAV (44% discount)
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AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/19/19DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.461.5BuyDCF
07/25/19Lim & TanAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.470Hold
07/26/19Kim EngAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.471.6BuyDDM
11/07/19DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.41.5BuyDCF
01/31/20Lim & TanAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.430Hold
02/03/20Kim EngAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.461.6BuyDDM
03/02/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.41.5BuyDCF
03/05/20MacquarieAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.421.55Outperform
05/15/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.181.4BuyDCF
05/28/20MacquarieAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.221.45Outperform
06/02/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.261.4Buy
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Stock calls for 30 June 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
06/30/20DBS VickersAEM2.933.53BuyPER10.4x FY21
06/30/20CIMBElite ComReit0.71.3Add
06/30/20DBS VickersIHH Healthcare1.782.05BuySum of parts
06/30/20CIMBIHH Healthcare1.782.03AddSum of parts, Ringgit $6.25 target price
06/30/20AminvestmentIHH Healthcare1.782.14BuyDCF, Ringgit $6.58 target price
06/30/20Kim EngIHH Healthcare1.781.97BuyRinggit $6.05 target price
06/30/20DBS VickersJapfa0.670.82BuySum of parts, PER10.5x FY21
06/30/20DBS VickersSGX8.067.4Fully Valued
06/30/20CIMBSGX8.068Hold
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SUTD made a bizarre epidemic prediction from its data analysis. - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/who-coronavirus-infection-rate-warning-160011546.html

It looks crystal clear that SUTD has proven itself to be a 3rd rated university because the covid-19 outbreak won't end in July 2020 for Singapore.  In fact, there will be more reported cases in July because the government has started COVID testing for students and citizens above 13 years old.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/sutd-made-bizarre-epidemic-prediction.html

SUTD had made an incomplete data analysis, a.k.a a flawed analysis, with a singularity mindset instead of using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies.  This singularity analysis will have a big margin of error which is exactly what is happening in SUTD COVID publication.

The UK ex-PM, Teresa May, also made the same mistake by relying on flawed data analysis to call for a Brexit referendum because the flawed data analysis showed that the majority would vote against Brexit.  In the end, the British voted for Brexit.

Here's a simple example of a singularity analysis of data.


If we just look at the data above, we can see that the countries with lower infected cases have reported more deaths than Singapore.  This will give the impression that SG is fudging its COVID statistics if we just study the data and apply only quantitative analysis.  However, if we also apply qualitative analysis on the data, we will be able to justify the low death number because the COVID virus strain in SG is less lethal than the west and Malaysia.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-are-scientific-analyses-for-origin.html

A complete data analysis which involves qualitative and quantitative methodologies will reveal that the COVID outbreak won't end in July 2020 in Singapore because SG has a less lethal but more infectious virus strain.  Furthermore, there is likely to be a 2nd wave of outbreak when the economy reopens because of this infectious strain.


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The US debt market is going to implode! - Part 2

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-buying-more-auto-makers-bonds-than-wall-street-expected-51593446342?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

The US FED is buying more auto-makers bonds now! We did warn about the US car debts in May 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

Why is the US FED buying auto-maker bonds?

Well, the US FED wants to support the auto-makers so that they don't need to meet their cashflow needs by discounting their new car prices since doing so will impact the secondary car market (used car prices).  If the auto-makers rush to slash their new car prices, the US car debts will suffer massive markdowns and this will expedite a crash in the car debt market.
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Monday, June 29, 2020

No need to vote Indranee Rajah into our parliament.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/no-need-for-opposition-m-ps-to-have-opposition-presence-in-parliament-indranee-rajah-050749941.html

Have you guys ever wondered where the phrase, "Absolute power corrupts", came from?

There was a psychological experiment conducted to substantiate this phrase and this experiment was called the Lucifer Effect.  It was named after a fallen angel called Lucifer who turned into a devil.

https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/bad-apples-or-bad-barrels-zimbardo-on-the-lucifer-effect

This experiment was supposed to last a few weeks but was terminated in just 6 days because it went out of control when the participants (guards) were given absolute powers to do many things in the prison.  Basically, there was no supervisory of the guards and self-supervision didn't work.

The participants (guards) were selected based on their good social standings but they turned evil after they had a taste of absolute power.  Hilter also succumbed to the Lucifer Effect in the same way.

Therefore, we must not allow having only a 1-party system in Singapore without opposition.  For your information, nominated MPs have no voting rights in the parliament because they were not elected to represent us.  When a minister has such thinking, we will suffer in the future if such a minister is voted into the parliament.

Please think twice before you vote as you will be voting for the future political structure in Singapore.


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