SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/21	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.86	0.8	Hold	DDM
01/18/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.87	1.06	Add
01/18/21	OCBC	SPH Reit	0.87	0.88	Hold
02/02/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.83	0.8	Hold
03/04/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.83	1.06	Add
03/31/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.88	0	Accumulate
03/31/21	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.88	0.8	Hold	DDM
05/21/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.84	0.8	Hold
07/13/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.925	1.03	Accumulate
07/16/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.945	1.06	Add
07/16/21	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.945	0.8	Hold	DDM
08/03/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.905	0.92	Hold	DCF
08/03/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.905	0	Hold
08/27/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.89	1.04	Add	DDM
08/27/21	OCBC	SPH Reit	0.89	0.92	Hold
10/05/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.93	0.92	Hold
10/05/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.93	0.95	Hold
10/06/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.94	1.03	Add	DDM
01/10/22	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.98	0.92	Hold
01/10/22	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.98	1.03	Add	DDM
01/11/22	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.965	0	Neutral
01/12/22	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.975	0.95	Hold
01/12/22	OCBC	SPH Reit	0.975	0.95	Hold

SPH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/21	CIMB	SPH	1.13	1.1	Hold	Sum of parts
01/20/21	CIMB	SPH	1.21	1.31	Hold	Sum of parts
01/21/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.22	1.22	Hold	Buy @ $1.05
03/30/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.5	1.74	Buy
03/31/21	CIMB	SPH	1.5	2.09	Add	Sum of parts
03/31/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.5	1.85	Buy	Sum of parts
03/31/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.5	0	Accumulate
04/06/21	OCBC	SPH	1.77	1.92	Buy	Sum of parts
05/07/21	CIMB	SPH	1.79	2.09	Add	$1.94 target, Sum of parts (20% disc)
05/07/21	OCBC	SPH	1.79	1.92	Hold
05/10/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.52	1.85	Buy	Sum of parts
06/18/21	CIMB	SPH	1.83	2.19	Add	PB
07/21/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.8	2	Buy	Sum of parts
07/21/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.8	0	Accumulate
08/03/21	DBS Vickers	SPH	1.88	2.1	Accept offer	offer price $2.099
08/03/21	CIMB	SPH	1.88	2.19	Buy	Sum of parts
08/03/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.88	0	Accept offer	offer price $2.099
08/05/21	OCBC	SPH	1.92	1.92	Hold
08/05/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.92	2.1	Buy	Sum of parts (5% disc)
10/06/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.98	0	Hold
10/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.98	2.1	Accept offer	Sum of parts
11/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.12	2.15	Accept offer
11/11/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.16	2.35	Accept offer	offer price $2.35
11/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.33	2.4	Accept offer
12/23/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.34	0	Accept offer	Accept Cuscaden & Reject Keppel

Stock calls for 31 January 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/22	Kim Eng	ART	1.01	1.3	Buy	DDM
01/31/22	Kim Eng	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	1.94	2.55	Buy	DDM
01/31/22	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	1.94	2.2	Buy
01/31/22	Lim & Tan	CapitaRetail China	1.14	0	Accumulate
01/31/22	Lim & Tan	DBS	34.82	38.41	Accumulate
01/31/22	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.64	Buy	DDM
01/31/22	CIMB	Frencken	1.6	2.07	Add
01/31/22	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.69	2.35	Buy	DDM

What the factors contributing to US inflation in 2022?

 
The employment cost index had surged to 4.4% in Q4 2021 and would continue its upward trajectory in 2022.

What are other factors that will contribute to US inflation in 2022?

Besides the employment cost, the other primary inflation factors will be energy price, housing cost including rental, food cost, and imported supplies (imported inflation).

US Personal spending fell 0.6% in December 2021.

 
The decline (-0.6%) in US personal spending is expected because of the persistently high inflation.  The US retail sales also declined in December 2021.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-retail-sales-declined-19-in-december.html

The declines in US personal spending and retail sales don't bode well for the US GDP in 2022 because consumer spending constitutes 70% of the US GDP.

Baltic dry index - 1381

 

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 610

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

What are the risks in 2022? - Part 2

The Bank of America (Boa) has the most hawkish rate hikes of 7 times (0.25% per time) and this projection means that the US FED will hike a total of 1.75% in 2022.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-says-expects-seven-144612171.html

Furthermore, Boa has cut the US GDP growth to 3.6% in 2022.  Conversely, China has maintained a 5.5% GDP growth in 2022.

What are the risks in 2022?

The economists' survey showed that inflation was the biggest risk and concern while the covid pandemic was the lowest risk.

Thus, the traders are projecting at least 4 FED rate hikes for 2022, starting in March.

Consequently, the ECB will expire its PEPP (pandemic emergency program) in March 2022 and start to taper its APP in July 2022.

In a nutshell, the US and EU will be doing quantitative tapering while China will be conducting quantitative easing in 2022.

US core PCE inflation had hit 4.9% in December 2021.

 The US core PCE inflation reached 4.9% in December 2021 and this had approximately hit our year-end projection of 5% in 2021. 

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-core-pce-inflation-has-hit-47-in.html

We're happy to have predicted the US core PCE inflation more accurately than the US FED and US treasury.  Cheers!