Pacific Radiance - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/17	Amfrasers	Pacific Radiance	0.153	0.17	Hold
03/01/17	DBS Vickers	Pacific Radiance	0.153	0.16	Hold	PB0.35x FY17
05/18/17	DBS Vickers	Pacific Radiance	0.12	0.1	Fully Valued	PB0.2x FY17
05/19/17	CIMB	Pacific Radiance	0.115	0.11	Reduce	PB0.22x FY17
08/15/17	CIMB	Pacific Radiance	0.085	0.073	Reduce	PB0.15x
08/15/17	DBS Vickers	Pacific Radiance	0.085	0.07	Fully Valued	PB0.15x FY17
01/12/18	CIMB	Pacific Radiance	0.108	0.07	Reduce

Stock calls for 15 November 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/15/18	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.49	0.61	Hold
11/15/18	OCBC	Capitaland	3.08	3.96	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.08	3.62	Buy	RNAV (25% discount)
11/15/18	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.08	4	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
11/15/18	CIMB	Capitaland	3.08	3.55	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/15/18	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.17	0.17	Hold	PB0.8x
11/15/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.925	1.23	Buy	DCF, EV/Ebitda9x
11/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.550	0.77	Buy	DCF
11/15/18	CIMB	HMI	0.550	0.73	Add	DCF, EV/Ebitda15.2x FY20
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Finance	2.57	3.2	buy	GGM, PB0.7x FY19
11/15/18	CIMB	Jadason	0.03	0.073	Add	PB1x FY18
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.094	0.1	Hold	PB0.5x
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.37	0.5	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY19
11/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.56	0.65	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
11/15/18	OCBC	SIA	9.41	10.71	Buy	PB0.85x FY19
11/15/18	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.41	0	Hold
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.28	0.32	Hold
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.5	4.15	Buy	Sum of parts
11/15/18	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.5	4.35	Buy	DCF
11/15/18	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.5	3.94	Add	Sum of parts
11/15/18	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.19	3.59	Buy

Canada has given Trump a tight slap in the face.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trudeau-says-canada-china-eventual-free-trade-deal-050049932--business.html

The "poison" clause in the new NAFTA amongst the 3 countries (US, Mexico & Canada) doesn't allow any party to sign a FTA with a non-market economy defined under WTO and China has a non-market economy status.

Any party who signs a FTA with a non-market economy will render the new NAFTA void in 6 months time.  Look like Canada is going to void the new NAFTA and piss Trump off.

Yeah! SG PM Lee has been invited to attend OBR 2019 summit by China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/pm-lee-attend-china-apos-035508247.html

As PM Lee changes his anti-China mentality, SG-China relationship has reverted back to the good old days.  PM Lee has been invited by China to attend the OBR 2019 summit.

Hopefully, SG can retake its ASEAN facilitator role back from the Philippines when SG-China relationship gets cozy again.

The chairman for ASEAN 2019 will be Thailand and Thailand is a pro-China country.  Thus, I believe China-ASEAN relationship will get better in 2019.

US-China trade war will hurt the Hong Kong economy badly.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-housing-prices-could-055600239.html

If HK property prices were to crash 25% as predicted in the article above, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) would crash heavily too because of the heavy property composition in the HSI.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/danger-is-lurking-in-hong-kong-property.html

The Germany economy shrinks for the 1st time since 2015.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-industry-association-bdi-cuts-2018-export-forecast-094538270--sector.html

These are telltale signs that the Germany economy is slowing down.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-economy-shrinks-first-time-085505460.html

The Germany economy shrinks for the 1st time since 2015.

Just this week alone, Japan, HK, and Germany economies have reported a slowdown.

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/13/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.335	0.41	Buy
02/22/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.365	0.42	Buy	PB0.8x
02/22/17	OCBC	PACC Offshore	0.365	0.33	Sell	PB0.7x
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.34	0.42	Buy
04/12/17	OCBC	PACC Offshore	0.35	0.335	Hold	PB0.7x
05/08/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.32	0.41	Buy	PB0.8x
05/09/17	OCBC	PACC Offshore	0.325	0.335	Hold	PB0.7x FY17/18
05/31/17	OCBC	PACC Offshore	0.305	0.325	Hold
08/02/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.285	0.41	Buy	PB0.8x
11/14/17	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.345	0.41	Buy	PB0.8x
01/23/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.43	0.51	Buy	PB1x
02/13/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.37	0.51	Buy
02/22/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.39	0.48	Buy	PB1.4x
04/04/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.35	0.32	Hold	PB1x
05/10/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.345	0.32	Hold	PB1x FY18
08/10/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.305	0.32	Hold	PB1x FY18
11/05/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.24	0.25	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/17	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.43	0.85	Buy
10/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.56	0.67	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
11/22/17	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.655	0.74	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
12/01/17	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.6	0.74	Buy
03/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.56	0.74	Buy
04/04/18	Soochow SSD	Oxley	0.495	0.63	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
04/24/18	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.485	0.68	Not Rated	RNAV (35% discount)
06/04/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.46	0.56	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
07/09/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.345	0.34	Hold
07/12/18	NRA	Oxley	0.36	0.435	Overweight
08/27/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.35	0.36	Hold
09/06/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.345	0.36	Hold

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.73	Buy
01/09/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.72	Buy	DCF
01/26/17	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.71	Add	DDM
01/26/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.7	Neutral	DDM
01/26/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.75	Buy
01/27/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.75	Buy	DCF
01/31/17	Credit Suisse	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.78	Neutral
02/08/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.675	0.75	Buy
02/28/17	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.65	Hold
03/10/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.675	0.7	Neutral
03/16/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.75	Buy
04/03/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.76	Buy	DDM
04/17/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.71	0.75	Buy
05/05/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.76	Buy	DCF
05/05/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.76	Buy	DDM
05/05/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.75	Buy
05/15/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.705	0.78	Buy	DDM
06/09/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.75	Buy
06/22/17	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.65	Hold
07/04/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.755	0.75	Buy
07/12/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.76	0.78	Buy
08/02/17	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.76	0.82	Add	DDM
08/02/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.76	0.83	Buy	DDM
08/02/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.76	0.82	Buy
08/02/17	Lim & Tan	OUE Hospitality	0.76	0	Hold
08/03/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.77	0.8	Buy	DCF
09/21/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.79	0.83	Buy
09/21/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.79	0.82	Buy
11/02/17	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.81	0.84	Add	DDM
11/02/17	Credit Suisse	OUE Hospitality	0.81	0.78	Neutral
11/02/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.81	0.82	Hold
11/02/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.81	0.85	Buy	DCF
11/03/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.815	0.88	Buy	DDM
12/01/17	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.815	0.82	Hold
12/06/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.85	Buy
12/19/17	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.835	0.88	Buy
01/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.855	0.91	Buy	DDM
01/04/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.65	Sell
01/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.89	Add	DDM
01/05/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.875	0.83	Hold
01/31/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0.93	Buy	DCF
01/31/18	Lim & Tan	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0	Hold
02/20/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.845	0.95	Buy
04/04/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.795	0.95	Buy
04/10/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.92	Add
04/17/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.815	0.93	Buy
05/03/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.92	Add	DDM
05/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.95	Buy	DDM
05/03/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.84	Hold	Buy @ $0.78 or lower
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.765	0.93	Buy
07/30/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.89	Add	DDM
07/30/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.9	Buy	DCF
07/31/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.805	0.79	Hold
09/20/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.65	Sell
10/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
10/10/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.79	Buy
10/16/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.8	Buy	DDM
11/08/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Add	DDM
11/08/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.8	Buy
11/08/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.85	Buy	DCF
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy

Stock calls for 14 November 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.42	0.88	Buy
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold	PER10x FY19
11/14/18	OCBC	Capitaland	3.08	4.09	Buy
11/14/18	phillip	China Everbright	0.35	0.44	Buy	PER8.8x
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.35	0.475	Buy	PER15z
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.19	1.59	Buy	DCF
11/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.245	0.2	Sell	PER11x FY19
11/14/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.245	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (20% discount)
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy	Sum of parts
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.68	0.91	Buy	DCF
11/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.42	10.4	Hold	PB0.75x FY19, Buy @ $9.20-9.30
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.42	10.2	Hold	PB0.85x FY19
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.41	0.65	Buy	DCF
11/14/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.41	0.56	Add	DCF
11/14/18	Macquarie	Singtel	3.03	3.14	Outperform
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.215	0.32	Buy	PER12x FY19
11/14/18	CIMB	UMS	0.715	0.75	Hold	PB1.72x
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.715	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
11/14/18	CIMB	UOL	6.18	8.45	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
11/14/18	OCBC	UOL	6.18	8.41	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
11/14/18	Lim & Tan	UOL	6.18	0	Buy
11/14/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.28	2.13	Buy
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.35	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)

Hong Kong is expected to slow down significantly!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kongs-third-quarter-gdp-growth-seen-cooling-031106075--business.html

After Japan announced its slowdown, HK is the next to declare that its economic growth will slow down significantly.

Furthermore, HK has to follow the US in hiking interest rates to contain its HKD fall since it is pegged to the USD.

A higher interest rate will cause HK to slow down further.

US skyrocketing debt will cause the next great recession!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-debt-payments-soon-exceed-160557722.html

The US economic growth is based entirely on credit and this credit bubble will burst one day.  There is no way for the US government to repay its colossal debt and its citizens have virtually no savings.

However, many people still have blind faith in the USA but the day of reckoning will come.  It is a matter of when, not IF.  In fact, some financial head honchos are warning about this credit bubble now.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/blackrock-larry-fink-deficit-budget/2018/11/09/id/890133/

Just look at the federal government! The federal government is also on the verge of bankruptcy with no money to pay its own government employees.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-us-government-has-shut-down-on.html

This federal government will face the money problem next year again.

Japan economic growth is slowing down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-economy-contracts-natural-disasters-trade-frictions-hit-002124696--business.html

Japan's economy contracts 1.2% annually in Q3 and will continue to slow down when the US-China trade war intensifies.

The only bright spot in the world now is Asia and the western countries such as Europe and the US are dumping their goods in Asia when they cannot sell goods to China which is the largest market.  Japan will also start to divert its goods to Asia when its exports to China falter since Japan is an export-oriented nation.

Many developing Asia economies are still growing at above 5% which are much higher than in Europe and the US.  However, Asia won't be able to hold up the global economic growth and will also falter over time because of the slowdown in China.

Bank of Japan's balance sheet is larger than Japan's GDP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/graphic-bank-japans-balance-sheet-083941933.html

When a central bank is bigger than its own country GDP, it is facing tremendous stress in managing its assets because of the different risks it faced in different markets.

What does this mean for the market?

This means the stock market is artificially being held up and the bond market is also flushed with fake liquidity.

When there is a global recession, BOJ will suffer from a massive dilution in asset values.  The BOJ will also suffer great losses in its bond assets in an interest rate rising environment because the bond price and interest yield move in an inverse relationship.

The BOJ will be cash-strapped when it is holding a lot of assets and will face cash flow problems when it is needed to perform its origin duties as a central bank.  It cannot cash out easily because it will disrupt the stock and bond markets.

Foreign buyers are snubbing US treasuries auctions in November 2018.

3-year bonds
https://www.ft.com/content/f3f56754-e12a-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad

Quote:

Primary dealers, responsible for bidding on a pro-rata share of each auction to ensure the debt is sold, walked away with 47.9 per cent of the securities, above a recent auction average of 44.1 per cent, as other investors backed away.

End Quote.


30-year bonds
https://www.ft.com/content/752b0a68-e2bb-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad

Quote:

The weak demand left primary dealers, who are responsible for bidding on a pro-rata share of each auction to ensure the debt is sold, taking home 38.1 per cent of the sale, above a recent average of 27.3 per cent.

End Quote.


How do we know that there are fewer buyers participating in the US bonds auction? Well, we just need to look at the pro-rata share of the auction to determine the increase or decrease of foreign buyers.

This is just a simple mathematics logic.

When the denominator (the number of buyers) gets smaller, the pro-rata figure will get bigger.  Therefore, a high the pro-rata figure denotes a lacklustre buyer's interest because fewer buyers participate in the auction.

Example:
1/100 = 1%
1/50 = 2%
1/25 = 4%

From the figures above, if the number of buyers reduces from 100 to 25, the pro-rata figure will increase from 1% to 4% because the denominator gets smaller.

Former Fed Chair Yellen revealed the truth behind the US trade deficit.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/yellen-says-fed-more-to-blame-for-wider-trade-deficit-than-china#gs.KWJawKg

Quote:

"I do not see unfair trade practices in China, or anywhere in the world, as what is responsible for the U.S. trade deficit,” Yellen said.

End Quote:

Finally, former Fed chair Yellen has spoken the truth.

A 1947 map showed that South China Sea islands & Taiwan belonged to China.

This map was produced by Rand McNally company (founded in 1868) and could be found in the 1947 Collier's World Atlas and Gazetteer.

The map was produced by the west right after WW2 to indicate the true ownership of the South China Sea islands, a.ka Paracel islands (China), and Taiwan (China).  Taiwan was known as Formosa back then.

The west recognized that China owned the South China Sea islands and Taiwan in 1947 but the west flip-flopped on its stance later after the discovery of natural resources in the South China Sea.

Apple fell further yesterday and affected other technology stocks.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-asia-suppliers-fall-amid-fears-weak-iphone-023212593--sector.html

We had been warning about Apple and its suppliers in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/apple-iphone-sales-disappoint.html

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/09/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.695	0.74	Hold	DCF
01/27/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.7	0.65	Hold
03/10/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.685	0.65	Hold
05/08/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.7	0.67	Hold	DCF
05/08/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.7	0.65	Hold
05/08/17	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.7	0.71	Hold
08/03/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.73	0.68	Hold	DDM
08/04/17	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.725	0.68	Hold	DDM
08/04/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.725	0.69	Hold
10/04/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.715	0.67	Hold
11/03/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.67	Hold
11/03/17	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.68	Hold	DDM
11/10/17	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.71	0.73	Hold	DCF
12/05/17	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.71	0.67	Hold
01/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.67	Hold
02/01/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.75	Hold	DDM
02/01/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.69	Hold
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.755	0.73	Hold	DCF
03/19/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.715	0.73	Hold
03/23/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.75	Hold	DDM
05/11/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.68	Hold
08/02/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.695	0.73	Hold
08/03/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.75	Hold	DDM
08/03/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.67	Hold	DCF
09/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.6	Hold	DDM
09/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.67	Hold
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.475	0.48	Hold
11/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.47	Hold	DCF
11/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.57	Hold	DDM

OUE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/20/17	DIR	OUE	1.95	3.05	Buy	Sum of parts
02/20/17	OCBC	OUE	1.95	2.17	Buy
04/12/17	Deutsche	OUE	2.06	2.2	Buy
04/12/17	OCBC	OUE	2.06	2.17	Buy
05/12/17	Deutsche	OUE	2	3	Buy
05/12/17	DIR	OUE	2	3	Buy	Sum of parts
06/22/17	Deutsche	OUE	1.985	3	Buy
10/20/17	Deutsche	OUE	2.02	3	Buy
11/07/17	OCBC	OUE	2.02	2.47	Buy
02/26/18	OCBC	OUE	1.93	2.28	Buy
05/14/18	OCBC	OUE	1.81	2.25	Buy
09/06/18	OCBC	OUE	1.57	2.25	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE	1.54	3	Buy
11/13/18	OCBC	OUE	1.37	2.25	Buy