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Thursday, January 17, 2019

Singapore NODX fell 8.5% in December 2018.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-non-oil-exports-fall-8-6-december-005333196.html
Year on year changes (YOY):
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Chip Eng Seng - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 1.01 1.18 Buy Sum of parts
02/19/18 phillip Chip Eng Seng 0.955 1.21 Buy RNAV (40% discount)
03/20/18 UOB Kay Hian Chip Eng Seng 0.94 1.38 Buy Sum of parts
03/20/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.94 1.18 Buy Sum of parts
05/07/18 phillip Chip Eng Seng 0.93 1.21 Buy RNAV (40% discount)
05/17/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.945 1.18 Buy
06/28/18 UOB Kay Hian Chip Eng Seng 0.84 1.38 Buy
07/09/18 phillip Chip Eng Seng 0.79 1.15 Buy
07/09/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.79 0.75 Fully Valued Sum of parts
08/06/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.795 0.75 Fully Valued
09/17/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.845 0.75 Hold
11/08/18 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.725 0.75 Hold Sum of parts

China Sunsine - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.04 1.5 Add PER9.8x CY19
01/29/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.11 1.6 Buy FCFE, PER10x FY18
01/29/18 Amfrasers China Sunsine 1.11 1.39 Buy PER10x FY18
02/07/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.13 1.5 Add
03/05/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.35 1.62 Add PER9.8x CY19
03/05/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.35 1.6 Buy FCFE
04/05/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.25 1.62 Add PER9.8x FY19
04/27/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.5 1.87 Add PER9.8x FY19
04/30/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.48 1.97 Buy FCFE
07/02/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.55 1.87 Add PER9.8x CY19
08/08/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.49 1.41 Hold PER7.7x CY19
08/13/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.23 1.77 Buy FCFE
11/08/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.04 1.41 Add PER7.7x FY19
11/09/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.08 1.68 Buy FCFE
01/04/19 phillip China Sunsine 1.2 1.68 Buy

China Jinjiang - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/08/18 CIMB China Jinjiang 0.59 0.85 Add DCF

Stock calls for 16 January 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.625 0.675 Buy
01/16/19 phillip First Reit 1.04 0.88 Neutral DDM
01/16/19 Lim & Tan Lian Beng 0.515 0 Buy on weakness
01/16/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.685 0.79 Buy

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

China Everbright - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/02/18 DBS Vickers China Everbright 0.45 0.65 Buy
03/02/18 phillip China Everbright 0.45 0.6 Buy PER12.5x
05/14/18 phillip China Everbright 0.43 0.55 Buy PER11.4x FY18
06/14/18 DBS Vickers China Everbright 0.41 0.65 Buy PER24x
06/14/18 phillip China Everbright 0.41 0.53 Buy PER10.6x
11/14/18 phillip China Everbright 0.35 0.44 Buy PER8.8x
11/14/18 DBS Vickers China Everbright 0.35 0.475 Buy PER15x

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/31/18 DBS Vickers China Aviation Oil 1.65 2.08 Buy PER13x FY18
03/01/18 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.58 2.03 Add PER12.5x CY19
03/01/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.58 1.6 Neutral DCF, PER11.3x FY18
03/01/18 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.58 2.13 Buy PER13.5x FY18
03/02/18 DBS Vickers China Aviation Oil 1.51 1.98 Buy PER13x FY18
03/02/18 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.51 2 Buy PER13.3x
03/20/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.54 1.8 Buy PER12.2x FY18, PEG1x FY18
04/03/18 Edison China Aviation Oil 1.56 1.82 Buy DCF
05/10/18 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.56 2.03 Add PER12.5x FY19
05/10/18 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.56 2.13 Buy PER13.5x FY18
05/11/18 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.58 2 Buy PER13.3x FY18
05/11/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.58 1.8 Buy DCF & PER12.2x FY18 & PEG1x FY18
06/20/18 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.52 2.03 Add PER12.5x CY19
07/03/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.5 1.8 Buy
08/02/18 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.53 2.05 Buy PER13.5x FY18
08/02/18 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.53 2.03 Add PER12.5x FY19
08/02/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.53 1.8 Buy
08/03/18 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.53 2 Buy PER12.8x FY18
08/06/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.54 1.75 Buy Sum of parts, PER11.4x FY18
08/07/18 DBS Vickers China Aviation Oil 1.58 1.98 Buy PER13x FY18
11/02/18 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.38 1.93 Buy PER13.5x FY18
11/02/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.38 1.5 Neutral PER10x & PB1.2x & EV/Ebitda9x & DCF, PER7x FY19 (ex-cash), PEG1.3x FY19
11/02/18 DBS Vickers China Aviation Oil 1.38 1.9 Buy PER13x FY18
11/02/18 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.38 1.83 Add PER12x FY19
11/05/18 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.34 1.76 Buy PER11.5x FY19
11/21/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.22 1.32 Neutral

Centurion - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/18 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.515 0.47 Neutral DCF
03/01/18 Kim Eng Centurion 0.515 0.5 Hold DCF
06/27/18 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.455 0.47 Neutral
08/10/18 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.45 0.47 Neutral

Stock calls for 15 January 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/15/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.55 0.61 Hold
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.27 3.62 Buy
01/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.27 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
01/15/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.405 0.56 Add PER13.5x FY20
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/15/19 Amfrasers IFS Capital 0.225 0.29 Buy PB0.7x FY18
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.77 0.87 Buy DCF
01/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.63 3.2 Buy Sum of parts
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.05 3.59 Buy Sum of parts
01/15/19 OCBC SPH 2.47 2.55 Hold
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.77 2.45 Buy DCF

SG-JB MRT will be postponed!

http://www.asiaone.com/singapore/parliament-rts-link-project-not-progressing-well-opening-likely-be-delayed-beyond-2024

After the SG-KL HSR postponement, the SG-JB MRT will be delayed because the relationship between the 2 nations has turned south after Mahathir became the PM.

Look like Mahathir is skinning SG via the sky, land and sea.

Simmering anti-Malaysia sentiment is rearing its head now.

http://www.asiaone.com/malaysia/singaporeans-cancel-cny-shopping-trips-johor

Mahathir thought there wasn't any price to be paid for being anti-SG because SG was a red dot in his eyes and he could skin SG in many ways.

However, we can also retaliate in our own ways.  We can cut our spendings in Malaysia and also get cozy with China so that China will reduce its investment in Malaysia.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/singapore-seeks-closer-sg-sino-ties.html

The downfall of the Malacca Gateway will be a piece of good news for SG.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Cryptocurrency roundup.

2019 will be a bad year for cryptos because more people will get educated about the cryptos including ICOs.  Consequently, many ICOs will be declared as scams in 2019 as many of them won't be able to materialize as what's stipulated on their whitepapers.  Therefore, many ICO investors will try to salvage whatever values are left on their ICOs and this doesn't bode well for the crypto markets.

The cryptos including bitcoin have not been able to rise above the price levels on the day we publicized our financial analysis below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html

The bitcoin is down to around US$3500 today from US$4500 on our publication date.  When a product is developed with a flawed structural design and bad economics, it is doomed to fail eventually.  Crypto is such a product and the feared outcome will happen.  It is a matter of when, not if.

North America and Europe will slip into recessions faster than Asia.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-fdi-north-america-europe-falls-73-percent-001555773--business.html

Without FDI growth, North America and Europe will slip into recessions faster than Asia.  Why?

Let's look at the tabulation of GDP.

GDP = G + I + C + Net export(X-M)

FDI is I under the GDP tabulation formula and GDP will be affected if there is little or no FDI.  Since China is importing much lesser now, many countries net exports will be affected.  North America and Europe don't have the deep coffers for fiscal stimulus which is under G.  The consumer spendings (C) are also not great in North America and Europe because many people in these countries don't have high spending powers.  Just look at the unemployment rates and yellow vest protests and you will know what I mean.  Furthermore, the US is forcing many countries to buy US goods and reducing their exports to the US.

Singapore has acknowledged that SG-MY relation will turn south.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-says-malaysia-ties-downward-spiral-hopes-amicable-060959548.html

We've just stated this recently and our government is seeking a cozy relationship with China as our backup.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/singapore-seeks-closer-sg-sino-ties.

CEI - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/12/18 CIMB CEI 1 1.02 Hold PER10.48x

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.69 1.88 Buy DDM
01/04/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.69 1.77 Add
01/05/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.72 1.7 Buy
01/29/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.82 1.92 Add DDM
01/29/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.82 1.95 Buy DDM
01/29/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.82 1.95 Buy DDM
01/29/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.82 1.6 Sell
01/29/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.82 2 Buy
02/13/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.95 Buy
02/20/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.68 2 Buy
03/02/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.66 1.95 Buy
03/06/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.82 Buy
03/15/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.69 1.95 Buy
04/03/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.69 1.95 Buy DDM
04/10/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.72 1.92 Add
04/17/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.72 2 Buy DCF
05/02/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.78 1.95 Buy
05/02/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.78 1.95 Buy DDM
05/02/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.78 1.6 Hold
05/02/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.78 1.92 Add DDM
05/08/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.73 2 Buy
06/04/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.68 1.95 Buy DDM
06/08/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.66 1.92 Add DDM
06/26/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.61 2 Buy
07/04/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.53 1.95 Buy
07/06/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.58 2 Buy
07/30/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.42 Sell
07/30/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.86 Buy
07/30/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.78 Add DDM
07/30/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.95 Buy DCF
08/13/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.5 1.42 Hold
08/17/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.54 1.86 Buy
08/24/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.52 1.95 Buy
09/03/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.86 Buy
09/17/18 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.8 Buy DDM
10/03/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.86 Buy
10/04/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.7 Add
10/16/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.53 1.8 Buy DDM
11/01/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.45 1.45 Hold
11/01/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.45 1.8 Buy DDM
11/01/18 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.45 1.83 Buy DDM
11/01/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.45 1.61 Add DDM
11/02/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.44 1.85 Buy DCF
11/30/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.49 1.63 Add DDM
12/11/18 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.52 1.8 Buy
12/21/18 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.51 1.63 Add
01/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.8 Buy
01/02/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.63 Add

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/18 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.69 1.8 Buy DCF
02/01/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.69 1.66 Hold
02/02/18 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.67 1.66 Neutral DDM, PB1.02x
03/19/18 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.58 1.8 Buy
03/28/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Buy
04/27/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Buy
04/30/18 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Accumulate DDM
07/03/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.51 1.64 Buy
07/30/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.57 1.55 Hold
07/31/18 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.57 1.7 Buy DCF
08/30/18 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.45 1.7 Buy
10/17/18 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.4 1.66 Accumulate
10/31/18 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.36 1.63 Buy DCF
11/01/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.37 1.39 Hold
11/21/18 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.35 1.66 Accumulate

Stock calls for 14 January 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/14/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.82 2.11 Buy DDM
01/14/19 DMG & Partners M1 2.07 2.06 Neutral
01/14/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.05 3.22 Neutral
01/14/19 CIMB SPH 2.49 2.64 Hold Sum of parts
01/14/19 Lim & Tan SPH 2.49 0 Hold
01/14/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.77 1.9 Neutral

Deflation will start in Asia soon!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-1-chinas-exports-shrink-040900878.html

China's imports are declining at a rapid pace which doesn't bode well for Asia because China and US will dump goods in Asia at cheaper prices to clear the stocks.  Therefore, Asia can expect some deflation soon.  The weak import figure in China is also showing weak consumer spending which will impact Asia countries that are exporting to China.  Thus, Asia economies will be impacted by this.

China's export figure shows that the US has a problem weaning off China goods which supports the huge US trade deficit because US citizens don't have enough savings or strong purchasing powers to get more expensive alternatives.

In conclusion, Asia won't have fantastic economic growth in 2019.


Saturday, January 12, 2019

Canada is giving a ridiculous defence.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trudeau-says-china-not-respecting-225311669.html

How can an ex-diplomat have diplomatic immunity? This is another event to show that Canada is not a rule of law country.

Diplomatic immunity doesn't last for life and is also not an entitlement when the person is not on official duty.

If a diplomat drives and kills a pedestrian after drinking in a pub with his friends, he is not protected by diplomatic immunity.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/timeline-of-the-hit-and-run-case-involving-former-romanian-diplomat-silviu-ionescu

If not, any diplomat can kill and rape in another country without any regard for the law.