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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Singapore O&G - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/20/18 phillip Singapore O&G 0.385 0.42 Accumulate PER23.2x
05/15/18 phillip Singapore O&G 0.38 0.42 Accumulate PER23.2x
08/14/18 phillip Singapore O&G 0.36 0.42 Accumulate PER23.2x
01/23/19 phillip Singapore O&G 0.34 0.42 Buy
02/21/19 phillip Singapore O&G 0.355 0 Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 27 March 2017


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 CIMB Biolidics 0.27 0.32 Add EV/Sales 12x
03/27/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.27 1.6 Buy DCF, PER10x, PB1.2x, Ev/Ebitda6.5x
03/27/19 Lim & Tan MIT 0.36 0.405 Buy Mid-point of $0.4-0.41
03/27/19 Phillip Netlink 0.825 0.89 Accumulate DCF

Boeing 737-Max may not be able to fly to china for at least 1 year.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-not-taking-boeing-737-max-8-airworthiness-certificate-11382038

China won't give certification to Boeing 737-Max now and it may take up to 15 months to get the certification in China.

Therefore, no Boeing 737-Max will be able to fly in and out of China since it doesn't have the airworthiness certification.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Singapore Medical - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/24/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.605 0.79 Buy
01/26/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.63 0.83 Buy PER26.8x FY18, PEG0.3x
02/06/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.58 0.79 Buy DCF, PER27x FY18
03/01/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.56 0.83 Buy PER26.8x FY18
03/02/18 DBS Vickers Singapore Medical 0.56 0.73 Buy
03/02/18 Kim Eng Singapore Medical 0.56 0.7 Buy PER27x FY18
03/02/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.56 0.68 Buy DCF, PER26x FY18
03/19/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.51 0.74 Buy PER25.8x FY18
05/16/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.505 0.74 Buy PER26.8x FY18
05/16/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.505 0.68 Buy DCF
05/16/18 DBS Vickers Singapore Medical 0.505 0.73 Buy PER25x FY19
06/06/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.495 0.74 Buy
06/27/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.46 0.68 Buy
07/31/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.425 0.56 Buy DCF, PER21.5x
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.43 0.56 Buy DCF
08/16/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.425 0.74 Buy
11/07/18 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.4 0.74 Buy PER22.2x FY19
11/08/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.41 0.56 Buy DCF
12/14/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.405 0.56 Buy
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.4 0.56 Buy
02/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.47 0.65 Buy PER23x FY19
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.47 0.54 Buy DCF

Sing Holdings - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/18 Amfrasers Sing Holdings 0.42 0.68 Buy RNAV (30% discount), PB1x FY17

Silverlake - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/25/18 CIMB Silverlake 0.53 0.58 Add DCF
05/16/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.55 0.65 Buy DCF, PER21x FY19
05/16/18 CIMB Silverlake 0.55 0.56 Add DCF
05/24/18 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.545 0.65 Not Rated PER22x FY19
06/20/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.52 0.65 Buy DCF, PERf21x FY19
07/27/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.515 0.65 Buy DCF, PER23x FY19
08/27/18 CIMB Silverlake 0.455 0.56 Add DCF
08/28/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.46 0.57 Buy DCF
09/07/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.445 0.57 Buy
09/14/18 CIMB Silverlake 0.42 0.56 Add DCF
11/14/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.41 0.65 Buy DCF
11/14/18 CIMB Silverlake 0.41 0.56 Add Sum of parts, PER17.6x FY20
12/14/18 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.415 0.65 Buy
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.415 0.65 Buy DCF
01/03/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.405 0.6 Buy PER21x FY19
01/07/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.425 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
02/01/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.485 0.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.515 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
03/01/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.57 0.62 Add Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.555 0.65 Buy

Stock calls for 26 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.92 2.16 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.44 3.56 Add
03/26/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.8 Add
03/26/19 CIMB City Developments 8.87 10.66 Add
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.54 0.62 Buy
03/26/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.54 0.61 Buy DCF
03/26/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.54 0.6 Add
03/26/19 OCBC DBS 25.12 29.31 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
03/26/19 CIMB HRnetGroup 0.765 1.03 Add
03/26/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.17 8.41 Add
03/26/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.315 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.99 13.85 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.06 5.6 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Singtel 2.97 3.3 Add Sum of parts
03/26/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.75 4.08 Add
03/26/19 CIMB Starhub 1.51 1.65 Hold DCF (10% discount)
03/26/19 OCBC UOB 24.95 28.3 Buy

Global inflation or deflation? - Part 2

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/global-inflation-or-deflation.html

Our latest analysis is that inflation will rear its head in the 2nd half of 2019.

What caused the sudden change from our previous analysis whereby Asia would face deflation?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/asian-deflation-is-happening.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/deflation-will-start-in-asia-soon.html

Well, our change stemmed from the US political will to depreciate the USD to create inflation which ran counter tour previous deflation analysis.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html

Furthermore, the pork prices in China will appreciate in the 2nd half of 2019 because of swine disease.  This forces China to import pigs in huge numbers which will boost the pork prices as pork is a staple food in China.  It also forms part of the CPI calculation.

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/chinas-pork-imports-double-2019-rabobank-analyst-predicts

As the USD is expected to depreciate and worldwide food prices (including China) are expected to increase, we have decided to change our stance from deflation to inflation in the 2nd half of 2019.

China has cut back on Boeing planes after 737-Max saga.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-seals-long-awaited-aircraft-163320433.html

China has just ordered a US$35b deal from Airbus which is a blow to Boeing.

It is ridiculous to solve a defective structural design with new anti-stall software.  Buying more from Airbus means buying less from Boeing.  Nobody will buy from both manufacturers at the same time!

The market rout is not over yet.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-refuses-to-concede-on-us-demands-to-ease-curbs-on-tech-11374034

The investors have not factored in the breakdown of the US-China trade talk.  Insofar, the investors have been optimistic about the outcome and are buying because of the fear of missing out of the market rally.

If the US demands get too outrageous, China will walk away from the trade deal.

Monday, March 25, 2019

SIIC - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/15/18 DBS Vickers SIIC 0.28 0.32 Hold PER13x
01/21/19 DBS Vickers SIIC 0.29 0.32 Hold PER13x FY19

SIA Engineering - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.26 4 Buy DCF, PER24.9x FY18
02/05/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.33 4 Buy DCF
02/05/18 phillip SIA Engineering 3.33 3.51 Accumulate DCF
02/05/18 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 3.33 3.5 Hold PER21x FY19
02/05/18 CIMB SIA Engineering 3.33 3.13 Reduce DCF
02/05/18 Lim & Tan SIA Engineering 3.33 0 Hold
02/05/18 OCBC SIA Engineering 3.33 3.7 Buy DCF
02/05/18 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 3.33 3.86 Buy
03/09/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.25 4 Buy
05/11/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.31 4 Buy DCF, PER20.8x FY18
05/16/18 Lim & Tan SIA Engineering 3.33 0 Hold
05/17/18 phillip SIA Engineering 3.31 3.57 Accumulate DCF
05/17/18 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 3.31 3.92 Buy Sum of parts
05/17/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.31 3.8 Buy PER19.6x ex-cash
05/17/18 OCBC SIA Engineering 3.31 3.7 Buy
06/11/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.17 3.8 Buy
07/20/18 phillip SIA Engineering 3.19 3.56 Accumulate DCF, PER22x FY19
07/20/18 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 3.19 3.92 Buy Sum of parts
07/23/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 3.2 3.4 Hold DCF, PER21.8x FY19, Buy @ $3-3.1
08/01/18 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.98 3.31 Add DCF
09/10/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.93 3.4 Hold
11/12/18 phillip SIA Engineering 2.83 2.81 Neutral DCF, PER20.6x FY19
11/12/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.83 2.7 Hold DCF, Buy @ $2.40 or PER15x FY19
11/12/18 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.83 2.94 Hold Sum of parts
11/12/18 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.83 3.11 Add DCF, PER19.6x CY19
11/26/18 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.51 2.64 Hold DCF
12/06/18 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.49 3 Buy DCF
01/07/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Buy DCF
02/11/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.52 2.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.52 2.47 Hold
02/11/19 phillip SIA Engineering 2.52 2.66 Neutral DCF
02/11/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.52 2.55 Hold
02/12/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.39 3.11 Add DCF
02/12/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Hold DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x

SIA - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 10.67 11.9 Buy PB0.9x FY18
01/03/18 OCBC SIA 10.67 10.5 Hold
01/31/18 DBS Vickers SIA 11.31 10.55 Hold
02/09/18 Kim Eng SIA 10.86 10.95 Hold PB0.93x FY18
02/14/18 CIMB SIA 10.62 12.05 Add PB1x CY18
02/14/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 10.62 11.9 Buy PB0.9x FY18
02/14/18 DBS Vickers SIA 10.62 12 Buy PB1x FY19
02/15/18 OCBC SIA 11.15 10.85 Hold PB0.9x FY18
02/15/18 Credit Suisse SIA 11.15 10.7 Neutral
03/09/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 11.01 11.9 Buy
03/15/18 Lim & Tan SIA 11.2 0 Neutral
05/07/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 11.03 11.9 Buy PB0.9x FY18
05/18/18 Lim & Tan SIA 11.14 0 Hold
05/18/18 CIMB SIA 11.14 11.75 Add PB1.05x
05/21/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 11.56 12.6 Buy Sum of parts, PB1x FY19
05/21/18 OCBC SIA 11.56 11.3 Hold
05/21/18 DBS Vickers SIA 11.56 13.7 Buy PB1.2x FY19
06/05/18 DBS Vickers SIA 11.48 13.7 Buy
06/11/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 11.43 12.6 Buy
06/19/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 11.2 11.9 Hold PB0.95x, Buy @ $10.9
06/21/18 OCBC SIA 11.01 11.3 Hold
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 10.42 11.9 Hold PB0.9x, Buy @ $10.50-10.60
07/27/18 Lim & Tan SIA 10.8 0 Hold
07/27/18 OCBC SIA 10.8 11.01 Hold
07/27/18 Kim Eng SIA 10.8 9.65 Sell PB0.82x FY18
07/30/18 CIMB SIA 10.22 11.75 Add PB1.05x CY18
07/30/18 DBS Vickers SIA 10.22 12.4 Buy PB1.1x FY19
07/31/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 10.1 11.1 Hold PB0.8x, Buy @ $9.80
09/10/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.62 11.1 Hold
09/18/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.57 10.4 Hold PB0.75x, Buy @ $9.10
10/16/18 Macquarie SIA 9.2 11.7 Outperform EV/Ebitda7x FY19, Cut from $12.50
10/17/18 OCBC SIA 9.15 10.71 Buy PB0.9x
11/09/18 Kim Eng SIA 9.65 9.8 Hold PB0.82x FY20
11/12/18 CIMB SIA 9.52 10.1 Hold PB0.9x CY19
11/14/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.42 10.4 Hold PB0.75x FY19, Buy @ $9.20-9.30
11/14/18 DBS Vickers SIA 9.42 10.2 Hold PB0.85x FY19
11/15/18 OCBC SIA 9.41 10.71 Buy PB0.85x FY19
11/15/18 Lim & Tan SIA 9.41 0 Hold
11/30/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.65 10.2 Hold
01/17/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.5 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
01/24/19 CIMB SIA 9.5 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 CIMB SIA 9.87 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.87 11 Buy PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19 Lim & Tan SIA 9.87 0 Hold
02/18/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.76 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19 OCBC SIA 9.76 10.71 Buy
03/19/19 CIMB SIA 9.83 10.25 Hold
03/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.83 10.1 Hold Buy @ $9

Stock calls for 25 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy DDM
03/25/19 CIMB Y Venture 0.06 0.15 Add

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Huawei won the fight in Europe against the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/exclusive--eu-to-drop-threat-of-huawei-ban-but-wants-5g-risks-monitored---sources-11371674

How did Huawei win the fight?

Huawei was able to win the fight because of its 10,000+ patents.  The EU realized that it would contravene Huawei's patents in 5G and couldn't develop the same 5G speed without Huawei.  Furthermore, excluding Huawei's components and parts in the EU would increase the 5G costs tremendously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/wipo-showed-that-china-didnt-steal.html

Well done Huawei!

What caused the US stock markets to plunge yesterday?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-why-stock-market-falling-141730433.html

The following contributing factors:

1.The global environment especially the recent Germany PMI data.  Germany is the bellwether of Europe and it will drag the whole Europe down when it is having a recession.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/germany-will-enter-into-recession-in.html

2.The chaotic US treasury market is signalling a recession is in the offing.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-us-treasurys-situation-is-getting.html

3. The dovish fed policy is creating an artificially low interest rate environment which will make the banking and financial industry less profitable.  In a nutshell, the banks and financial firms will find it difficult to earn more incomes in a low rate environment.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/03/what-stocks-to-buy-in-interest-rate.html



Baltic dry index - 690

Today, Friday, March 22 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 5 points, reaching 690 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1016

Total rig count 1016 versus 1026 last week

The Baker Hughes rig count is coming in lower for the 5th week in a row
  • Oil rigs, 824 versus 830 estimate. That is also down from 833 last week
  • Gas rigs, 192 versus 193 last week
  • Total rigs, 1016 versus 1026 last week
The price of crude oil was trading at $58.47 right before the report. It is currently trading at $58.59.

======================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Germany will enter into a recession in the 2nd half of 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-manufacturing-sinks-deeper-contraction-083000514.html

The PMI is at 44.7 now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-firm-solid-u-011607182.html

The German bund 10-year yield is negative.

The PMI is a harbinger and the country usually enters into a recession 6 months later.  Therefore, it is likely that Germany will enter into a recession around September 2019.  There are many telltale signs now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/germany-almost-got-into-recession.html

SHS - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/25/18 phillip SHS 0.23 0.29 Buy PER10x FY19
08/23/18 phillip SHS 0.24 0.29 Buy PER10x FY19
11/19/18 phillip SHS 0.215 0.24 Accumulate PER10x FY19
01/29/19 phillip SHS 0.197 0.24 Accumulate PER10x FY19
03/08/19 phillip SHS 0.191 0.194 Neutral PB0.7x