South East Asia may have oversupply port facilities in the future.

Singapore is building the Tuas mega port and Malaysia is also building the Carey island port.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/10/our-pm-lee-still-thinks-that-tuas-mega.html

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/Malaysia-s-Transport-Minister-Says-Carey-Island-Port-Development-To-Continue-Report

Singapore and Malaysia have yet to take into the consideration of the new Arctic sea lane in their port assessments and continue to increase their port facilities.  Beside the sea lanes, China is also developing rail routes to move containers across borders under the BRI.

The road and sea freight services will definitely cannibalize one and another.

Thailand has just lost many golden decades in the future for not developing its Kra Canal.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2017/09/northern-sea-route-completely-ice-free-and-shipping-thrives

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/10/china-wants-to-open-major-arctic-shipping-route.html

The northern sea route is completely ice free and shipping will start to thrive in the future.  China has completed its studies on this new northern sea route and will begin to open this arctic shipping lane which will bypass the Strait of Malacca completely.  This arctic sea lane will compete with South East Asia for shippers in the future.  Therefore, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore will be greatly affected economically due to lesser shipping businesses.

Once the opportunity is gone, it is lost forever.  China's interest in the Kra Canal has diminished and Thailand has lost many golden decades in the future for not developing its Kra Canal which can transform Thailand into the Panama of South East Asia. Consequently, this Kra Canal development is no longer feasible due to climate change as there is a cheaper way to bypass the Strait of Malacca now.

China is definitely gladdened to see the emergence of this Arctic sea lane because it no longer feels threatened by a single sea lane that passes through Strait of Malacca.

The biggest loser is Thailand because of its failure to recognize the opportunity to transform itself into the Panama of South East Asia.  This mistake will cost Thailand billions of economic losses in the future.

We did report on this Arctic sea lane in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/04/new-arctic-shipping-route.html

Is Japan food safe for consumption? - part 2

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/cms_ia/importalert_621.html

Japan food is still not safe for consumption as stated by USA FDA on 29 Sep 2017 because FDA will detain food products from Japan without inspection.

However, SG is importing a lot of Japan food.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/is-japan-food-safe-for-consumption.html

China has replaced Singapore with Philippines as the facilitator between China and ASEAN.

Philippines knew what Trump was up to with this ASEAN visit.  Therefore, the Philippines protested against Trump prior to his visitation.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/11/12/philippine-protest-ahead-summit

China Premier stayed behind in the Philippines after the ASEAN summit to discuss and sign 14 agreements between China & Philippines.  Furthermore, Philippines had proposed to China that it's willing to be the facilitator between China and ASEAN.  However, this point was not highlighted in the news but caught the attention of some news channel.  I learnt about this from some Chinese media channel.  Therefore, we can foresee that the Philippines will play a more proactive role in forging the bridge between China and ASEAN and Singapore will lose its importance over time in ASEAN.

https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/chinese-premier-china-philippines-relations-as-warm-as-manilas-weather/

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/15/1759226/14-agreements-between-china-and-philippines-signed

No wonder Duterte rejected Trump as the mediator in South China Sea because the Philippines wanted to be the ASEAN facilitator.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/11/trump-offered-to-mediate-on-south-china.html

China and Philippines are the biggest winners for this ASEAN summit as China has settled the South China Sea issue with Philippines and Vietnam.

Sigh! USA destroyer collided in Japan sea. This is the 5th time this year.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/us-warship-collides-japanese-tug-boat-latest-mishap/story?id=51242298

The USA destroyer is very good at causing damages to commercial vessels.

I think the USA destroyer is built for destroying commercial vessels, not other military vessels as proclaimed.

It had collided with a container ship, oil tanker, tug boat, etc.

Well done!

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

02/09/17	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.335	0	Buy
03/29/17	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.4	0.52	Buy	DCF, PER5.7x FY18, Ex-cash
05/15/17	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.44	0.52	Buy	DCF
08/07/17	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.51	0.52	Buy
08/21/17	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.47	0.59	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
08/21/17	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.47	0	Buy
11/14/17	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.525	0.59	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18

Auric Pacific - Stock calls.

11/10/16	CIMB	Auric Pacific	1.18	1.96	Add	Sum of parts (25% discount), Up from $1.69
12/06/16	CIMB	Auric Pacific	1.38	1.96	Add
02/08/17	CIMB	Auric Pacific	1.65	1.96	Add	Sum of parts (25% discount), PER10.9x FY16, Reject $1.65 offer

Astaka - Stock calls

08/24/17

NRA

Astaka

0.092

0.13

Overweight

RNAV (56% discount)

Baltic dry index - 1371

Today, Friday, November 17 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 1371 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==========================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 915

HOUSTON (AP) - The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by eight this week to 915.

That's up from the 588 rigs that were active a year ago.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 738 rigs sought oil and 177 explored for natural gas this week.

Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas gained seven rigs, Louisiana added four and Ohio and Utah were up one apiece.

Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming declined by one each.

Arkansas, California, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

===========================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Robot is getting more human like now.

Can you do a backflip like this robot?

Alibaba Jack Ma's movie 功守道

Enjoy!

China has responded finally to Singapore invitation to part take in the HSR tender.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/china-gears-up-to-woo-singapore-in-bid-for-high-speed-rail-9415766

Look like our PM Lee's visit to China has paid off.  China has reciprocated by responding to SG's invitation albeit much later than Japan (August 2017).  This is a goodwill gesture by China.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/why-is-china-so-blase-about-singapore.html

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/japan-courts-singapore-in-bid-for-high-speed-rail-project-to-kl-9163550#cxrecs_s

Saudi Arab has a huge budget deficit that it is trying to fill.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-officials-reportedly-offer-freedom-095000659.html

Saudi's national budget is based on around USD$80 oil but the oil prices have been hovering at around USD$55 now.  Therefore, there is a significant shortfall in the budget.

How is Saudi going to make up for the shortfall?

By imposing a 70% confiscation of wealth on the arrested parties.

Fitch downgraded Noble Group after DBS dumped Noble.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-lowers-noble-group-rating-says-default-appears-095447764--finance.html

Default risk is definitely much higher than before now especially when more banks start to dump Noble.

Aspen - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/29/17	CIMB	Aspen	0.23	0.29	Add
10/20/17	DMG & Partners	Aspen	0.22	0.31	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
11/14/17	CIMB	Aspen	0.22	0.29	Add	RNAV (45% discount)

Asiaphos - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/18/16	NRA	Asiaphos	0.089	0.225	Overweight	PB2.3x FY15
05/09/16	NRA	Asiaphos	0.092	0.225	Overweight	Sum of parts
08/16/16	NRA	Asiaphos	0.088	0.195	Overweight
11/15/16	NRA	Asiaphos	0.082	0.195	Overweight
09/14/17	NRA	Asiaphos	0.095	0.167	Overweight

Stock calls for 17 November 2017

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/17/17	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.53	0	Buy
11/17/17	phillip	China Everbright	0.445	0.59	Buy	PER17.4x FY18
11/17/17	Kim Eng	Guocoland	2.19	2.9	Buy
11/17/17	Kim Eng	Ho Bee	2.53	3	Buy
11/17/17	CIMB	Keppel Corp	7.28	8.58	Add
11/17/17	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.138	0.14	Hold	PB0.6x
11/17/17	Phillip	RE & S	0.22	0	Subscribe	IPO

Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) - Part 7

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/quick-takes-singapores-export-rebound-could-mask-slowing-electronics-output

Year on year changes:

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
Dec 2016: 9.1%
Nov 2016: 15.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/10/singapore-non-oil-domestic-exports-nodx.html

Chinese bike-sharing firm has gone bankrupt.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/1116/c90000-9293509.html

This is not surprising even though China has 1.4B people because the shared bike business model is a flawed concept.

We reported this before.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/08/shared-bikes-business-model-is-flawed.html