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Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Trump is losing the US-China trade war!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-rage-towards-harley-davidson-happens-pick-winners-losers-152524509.html

We stated previously that to win in a trade war, the country would need to have a high saving rate and strong political will.  The USA doesn't have both but China does.

Harley Davidson cannot tolerate the tariff and has to move its production overseas.  This is just a harbinger or the tip of the iceberg.  When Walmart products get expensive, the US citizens will not be able to tolerate the price spikes and vote Trump out.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/04/who-will-win-in-trade-war-us-or-china.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-stock-market-will-start-in-red-next.html

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Mahathir has backed down from the water pact review.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/now-dr-m-says-reviewing-110953014.html

He has discovered that it is not easy to review the water pact as it is registered with the UN.  The UN has to get involved as it is part of the agreement to be separated from Malaysia.

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/09/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.45 1.62 Buy DCF
01/12/17 HSBC Mapletree Commercial 1.47 1.75 Buy
01/24/17 Deutsche Mapletree Commercial 1.47 1.6 Buy
01/26/17 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.48 1.45 Hold DDM
01/26/17 Credit Suisse Mapletree Commercial 1.48 1.73 Outperform
01/26/17 Lim & Tan Mapletree Commercial 1.48 0 Hold
02/09/17 Credit Suisse Mapletree Commercial 1.52 1.73 Outperform
02/28/17 Deutsche Mapletree Commercial 1.495 1.6 Buy
03/17/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.49 1.62 Buy DCF
04/26/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.57 1.62 Buy
04/27/17 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.585 1.7 Add DDM
06/22/17 Deutsche Mapletree Commercial 1.555 1.6 Buy
06/23/17 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.56 1.7 Add
07/28/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.63 1.62 Hold
07/28/17 Credit Suisse Mapletree Commercial 1.63 1.73 Outperform
07/28/17 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.63 1.79 Add DDM
09/13/17 Credit Suisse Mapletree Commercial 1.55 1.73 Outperform
10/27/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.58 1.62 Hold
10/27/17 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.58 1.75 Add DDM
12/11/17 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.58 1.75 Buy
01/02/18 Kim Eng Mapletree Commercial 1.62 1.45 Sell DDM
01/04/18 Deutsche Mapletree Commercial 1.67 1.7 Buy
01/25/18 Lim & Tan Mapletree Commercial 1.67 0 Hold
01/26/18 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.68 1.75 Add DDM
04/25/18 Kim Eng Mapletree Commercial 1.6 1.5 Hold DDM
04/25/18 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.6 1.75 Add DDM
04/25/18 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.6 1.8 Buy DCF, PB1.2x

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.83 0.96 Buy DDM
01/05/17 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.835 0 Buy
01/09/17 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.84 0.93 Buy DCF
02/14/17 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.86 0.95 Buy DCF
02/14/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.86 0.96 Buy DDM
02/28/17 Deutsche Manulife US Reit 0.84 0.95 Buy
03/10/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.84 0.96 Buy
04/07/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.835 0.96 Buy
05/03/17 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.84 1.01 Buy DCF
05/04/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.85 0.96 Buy
05/08/17 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.865 0 Buy
06/21/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.885 0.99 Buy DDM
06/21/17 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.885 0 Buy on weakness
06/22/17 Deutsche Manulife US Reit 0.89 0.95 Buy
07/12/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.915 0.99 Buy
08/10/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.925 1 Buy DDM
08/10/17 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.925 1.07 Buy DCF
08/10/17 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.925 1 Buy
08/10/17 Deutsche Manulife US Reit 0.925 1 Buy
09/04/17 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.965 0 Buy
09/05/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.94 0.98 Buy DDM, Ex-Rights 41-for-100 @ $0.695
11/06/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.905 0.98 Buy DDM
11/29/17 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.99 Buy DCF
12/19/17 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.93 0.98 Buy
01/03/18 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.93 1 Buy
01/04/18 Deutsche Manulife US Reit 0.94 1 Buy
01/05/18 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.935 0.98 Buy
02/06/18 UOB Kay Hian Manulife US Reit 0.92 1.12 Buy DDM
02/06/18 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.92 1 Hold
02/06/18 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.92 0.98 Buy DDM
02/07/18 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.91 1 Buy DCF
02/21/18 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.91 1.008 Buy DDM
04/13/18 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.925 1 Hold
04/16/18 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.82 1 Buy DDM
04/16/18 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.82 1 Buy
04/17/18 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.925 1.01 Buy
05/02/18 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.95 1 Buy DDM
05/02/18 UOB Kay Hian Manulife US Reit 0.95 1.12 Buy
05/08/18 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.945 1.02 Buy
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.86 0.97 Buy DCF

Mandarin Oriental - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/03/17 Nomura Mandarin Oriental 1.275 1.06 Reduce
06/06/17 Nomura Mandarin Oriental 1.71 1.73 Neutral

Stock calls for 26 June 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/26/18 DBS Vickers A-Reit 2.58 3 Buy
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Ascendas Hospitality Trust 0.775 0.98 Buy DCF
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.02 1.25 Buy DDM
06/26/18 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.76 0.8 Hold
06/26/18 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.64 2.12 Buy DCF
06/26/18 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.64 0 Buy
06/26/18 OCBC Capitaland 3.18 4.26 Buy
06/26/18 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.61 2 Buy
06/26/18 OCBC City Developments 11 15.78 Buy
06/26/18 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.66 30.15 Buy GGM, PB1.65x FY18
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.17 2.45 Buy
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.03 1.2 Buy DCF
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 1.35 1.52 Buy DCF
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.86 0.97 Buy DCF
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.13 1.45 Buy DCF
06/26/18 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.22 1.48 Buy
06/26/18 SAC Megachem 0.32 0.5 Buy PER14.9x FY19
06/26/18 CIMB Memtech 1.13 1.47 Add
06/26/18 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.6 14.28 Buy GGM, PER1.46x FY18
06/26/18 OCBC UOL 7.45 10.63 Buy

Monday, June 25, 2018

M1 - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.96 1.76 Sell
01/12/17 CIMB M1 2.06 1.9 Hold DCF, Buy below $1.56
01/12/17 Deutsche M1 2.06 2.6 Buy
01/13/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.08 1.65 Underperform
01/13/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.08 2.09 Hold DCF
01/13/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.08 2.05 Neutral DCF
01/17/17 DIR M1 2.08 2.02 Hold DDM
01/18/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 2.09 2.5 Buy DCF
01/25/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.17 1.55 Underperform
01/25/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.17 1.97 Hold DCF
01/25/17 Kim Eng M1 2.17 1.85 Sell DCF
01/25/17 Lim & Tan M1 2.17 0 Sell
01/25/17 OCBC M1 2.17 2.03 Hold
01/25/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 2.17 2.48 Buy DCF
01/26/17 CIMB M1 2.05 1.8 Reduce DCF
02/24/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 2.03 2.52 Buy DCF
02/24/17 Deutsche M1 2.03 2.5 Buy
03/13/17 DIR M1 2.11 1.93 Hold DDM
03/17/17 OCBC M1 2.03 1.75 Sell
03/20/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.19 1.5 Underperform
03/20/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.19 1.97 Hold
03/20/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.19 2.05 Neutral DCF
03/21/17 OCBC M1 2.17 1.96 Hold EV/EBitda8.5x FY17/18
04/05/17 CIMB M1 2.16 1.8 Reduce
04/05/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.16 1.5 Underperform
04/05/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.16 2.05 Neutral
04/05/17 Kim Eng M1 2.16 1.75 Sell DCF
04/05/17 OCBC M1 2.16 1.96 Hold
04/06/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.12 1.97 Hold DCF
04/18/17 CIMB M1 2.14 1.7 Reduce DCF
04/18/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.14 1.45 Underperform
04/18/17 DIR M1 2.14 1.93 Hold DDM
04/18/17 Lim & Tan M1 2.14 0 Hold
04/18/17 Deutsche M1 2.14 2.3 Buy
05/02/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.17 2.54 Buy EV/Ebitda8.4x FY17
06/02/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.27 2.05 Neutral DCF
07/07/17 OCBC M1 2.11 1.96 Hold
07/14/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.07 2.05 Neutral
07/19/17 OCBC M1 2.1 1.75 Sell
07/19/17 DIR M1 2.1 1.93 Hold DDM
07/19/17 Credit Suisse M1 2.1 1.45 Underperform
07/19/17 DMG & Partners M1 2.1 1.9 Neutral DCF
07/19/17 CIMB M1 2.1 1.7 Reduce DCF
07/19/17 DBS Vickers M1 2.1 1.78 Fully Valued DCF
08/18/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.77 1.98 Buy DCF
08/23/17 DMG & Partners M1 1.785 1.9 Neutral
09/11/17 OCBC M1 1.78 1.65 Hold
09/14/17 Kim Eng M1 1.79 1.59 Sell DCF
09/18/17 Credit Suisse M1 1.795 1.45 Underperform
09/20/17 Deutsche M1 1.79 2.3 Buy
09/25/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.78 1.98 Buy
09/25/17 CIMB M1 1.78 1.8 Hold
09/28/17 DIR M1 1.785 1.74 Hold DDM
10/16/17 DBS Vickers M1 1.815 1.49 Fully Valued DCF
10/17/17 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.805 1.95 Buy DCF
10/17/17 OCBC M1 1.805 1.65 Hold
10/17/17 DMG & Partners M1 1.805 1.9 Neutral
10/17/17 Kim Eng M1 1.805 1.59 Sell
10/17/17 CIMB M1 1.805 1.8 Hold
11/23/17 OCBC M1 1.77 1.65 Hold
11/28/17 Kim Eng M1 1.77 1.59 Sell
01/10/18 DMG & Partners M1 1.79 1.9 Neutral
01/12/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.79 1.95 Hold
01/24/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.87 1.84 Hold DCF, Buy @ $1.7
01/24/18 DMG & Partners M1 1.87 1.95 Neutral DCF
01/24/18 OCBC M1 1.87 1.7 Hold
01/24/18 DBS Vickers M1 1.87 1.49 Fully Valued DCF
01/25/18 CIMB M1 1.87 1.85 Hold DCF
02/21/18 OCBC M1 1.8 1.7 Hold
03/12/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.79 1.84 Hold
03/14/18 Kim Eng M1 1.78 1.63 Sell DCF
03/15/18 CIMB M1 1.78 1.85 Hold
03/15/18 DMG & Partners M1 1.78 1.95 Neutral
03/20/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.79 1.6 Sell DCF
03/27/18 Deutsche M1 1.77 2.3 Buy
04/03/18 Kim Eng M1 1.75 1.63 Hold DCF
04/11/18 DBS Vickers M1 1.72 1.76 Hold DCF
04/17/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.79 1.6 Sell DCF
04/17/18 DMG & Partners M1 1.79 1.95 Neutral DCF
04/17/18 OCBC M1 1.79 1.7 Hold
04/17/18 CIMB M1 1.79 1.85 Hold
05/23/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.76 1.6 Sell
06/04/18 UOB Kay Hian M1 1.71 1.6 Sell DCF

Lippo-Malls Indo - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/17/17 CIMB Lippo-Malls Indo 0.385 0.39 Hold DDM
02/17/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.385 0.43 Buy DDM
04/04/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.395 0.43 Buy
06/01/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.415 0.435 Buy
06/22/17 CIMB Lippo-Malls Indo 0.43 0.41 Hold DDM
06/28/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.44 0.475 Buy DDM
08/07/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.455 0.45 Hold DDM
08/08/17 CIMB Lippo-Malls Indo 0.455 0.43 Hold DDM
08/30/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.43 0.455 Buy
11/06/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.44 0.46 Buy DDM
12/13/17 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.415 0.46 Buy
02/15/18 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.4 0.405 Hold
04/13/18 CIMB Lippo-Malls Indo 0.365 0.33 Reduce DDM
04/13/18 OCBC Lippo-Malls Indo 0.365 0.31 Sell
05/07/18 CIMB Lippo-Malls Indo 0.32 0.33 Reduce DDM

Stock calls for 25 June 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/25/18 Amfrasers DISA 0.008 0.02 Buy DCF, PER23.9x FY21
06/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Ezion 0.09 0.12 Hold
06/25/18 CIMB Jumbo 0.5 0.62 Add PER23x CY19
06/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.76 3.6 Hold
06/25/18 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.76 0 Accumulate
06/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.96 2.05 Hold
06/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.96 1.3 Buy

Here we go again! Mahathir is skinning Singapore further.

Mahathir has been very anti-Singapore after becoming PM again.  He is trying to review our water pact now.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/mahathir-revives-singapore-water-dispute-takes-swipe-trump?utm_source=Singapore+Market+Report&utm_campaign=c37bfa0f29-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_06_24_09_20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46b7beec93-c37bfa0f29-90900869

Let's do a checklist on his anti-Singapore antes.

Dr M has decided to build a maritime base on the middle rocks which is only 44km away from SG.  This will affect SG's security.

Dr M has decided to terminate the KL-SG HSR.  This will affect SG's connection to the BRI.

Dr M has decided to review the CPTTP.  This will affect SG's free trade.

Dr M has decided to use the land acquisition to delay the JB-SG MRT.  This will affect the traffic flow between JB & SG.

Dr M has decided to review the water pact now.  This will affect SG's survival.

See!  Everything he does will harm SG.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Mahathir may delay the JB-SG MRT after the KL-SG HSR termination.

https://www.aseanbreakingnews.com/2018/06/jb-spore-rail-link-johor-needs-to-acquire-more-land/

Oh great! Malaysia has come up with a reason to delay the JB-SG MRT.  Land acquisition usually takes time and Malaysia is using this excuse to delay the JB-SG MRT construction.

Look like Mahathir has upped his ante against SG.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/mahathir-is-trying-to-skin-singapore.html

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Baltic dry index - 1341

Today, Friday, June 22 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 6 points, reaching 1341 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==================
Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 1052

HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. decreased by seven this week to 1,052.
At this time a year ago there were 941 active rigs.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that 862 rigs drilled for oil this week and 188 for gas. Two were listed as miscellaneous.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Alaska gained two rigs and Wyoming added one.
Louisiana lost four rigs and Oklahoma decreased by two. Colorado, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Texas each lost one.
Arkansas, California, New Mexico, Ohio, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.
====================
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, June 22, 2018

Lian Beng - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/23/17 NRA Lian Beng 0.705 1.08 Not Rated RNAV (11.6% discount)
12/06/17 DBS Vickers Lian Beng 0.715 0.85 Not Rated RNAV (50% discount)
04/24/18 DBS Vickers Lian Beng 0.625 0.85 Not Rated Sum of parts

KSH - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/10/17 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.54 0.69 Buy PB0.93x
02/13/17 OCBC KSH 0.54 0.61 Buy
03/08/17 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.54 0.69 Buy
04/11/17 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.775 1.18 Buy RNAV (50% discount)
04/12/17 Lim & Tan KSH 0.78 0 Buy
05/30/17 OCBC KSH 0.935 0.86 Hold
05/31/17 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.915 1.12 Buy Sum of parts
08/14/17 Lim & Tan KSH 0.73 0 Hold
09/27/17 OCBC KSH 0.74 0.69 Hold
10/06/17 Lim & Tan KSH 0.785 0 Buy
11/06/17 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.89 0.87 Hold Sum of parts
11/13/17 Lim & Tan KSH 0.86 0 Hold
11/15/17 OCBC KSH 0.865 0.79 Hold
02/12/18 Lim & Tan KSH 0.705 0 Hold
02/13/18 OCBC KSH 0.695 0.79 Hold
02/22/18 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.76 1.08 Buy Sum of parts
06/01/18 Lim & Tan KSH 0.645 0 Hold
06/04/18 OCBC KSH 0.635 0.98 Buy
06/07/18 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.65 1.04 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 22 June 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 1 0.93 Neutral
06/22/18 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.64 2.11 Buy DDM
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.83 9.66 Buy
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.65 1.07 Buy
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.5 0.63 Buy
06/22/18 Kim Eng Japfa 0.625 0.86 Buy Sum of parts, PER14x FY18
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.345 0.43 Buy
06/22/18 DMG & Partners SGX 7.25 9 Buy PER24x FY19
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1 1.18 Buy
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.77 1.06 Buy
06/22/18 Kim Eng Top Glove 3.81 4.4 Buy

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Lee Hsien Yang has left CAAS!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/edmund-cheng-to-replace-lee-hsien-yang-as-caas-chairman-10455184

I believe the deceased LKY wouldn't expect that his elder son LHL would go after his younger son LHY and his grandson.  He also wouldn't expect that his Lee family would break up like this.

Kimly - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/10/17 Lim & Tan Kimly 0.25 0 Subscribe IPO
03/13/17 Amfrasers Kimly 0.25 0 Do not subscribe No competitive advantage
05/17/17 UOB Kay Hian Kimly 0.44 0.48 Hold DCF
08/08/17 UOB Kay Hian Kimly 0.375 0.46 Buy DCF
12/07/17 UOB Kay Hian Kimly 0.355 0.45 Buy DCF, PER22.8x FY18
04/16/18 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.34 0.43 Buy DCF, PER22.8x FY18
05/09/18 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.345 0.43 Buy DCF, PER22.8x FY18

Kim Heng - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/03/17 OCBC Kim Heng 0.075 0.089 Hold PB0.8x FY17

Stock calls for 21 June 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/21/18 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.65 0.8 Buy
06/21/18 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.55 1.6 Hold
06/21/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.33 0.26 Sell
06/21/18 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.22 1.34 Buy
06/21/18 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.12 3.9 Buy