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Monday, June 10, 2019

Stock calls for 10 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/10/19 Novus 800Super 0.89 0.9 Accept offer offer $0.90
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.27 1.46 Buy
06/10/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 8.47 9.2 Neutral
06/10/19 DBS Vickers City Developments 8.47 9.5 Hold
06/10/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 8.47 0 Buy
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.71 Buy
06/10/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 6.05 7.33 Buy Sum of parts, Cut from $7.92

Saturday, June 8, 2019

This is what will happen when the US conducts its sea navigation in international water.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-russia-blame-other-near-144834895.html

Without the US, this won't happen at all.  The US Navy likes to conduct Fon in "international water" and cause near collisions with others.

Is international water safer with the US Navy around or more dangerous now?

The recalcitrant PAP refused to back down. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-recalcitrant-pap-refused-to-back.html

PM Lee's FB post has gone awry and MFA damage control only fans the fire more.  Singapore proclaimed that it had no sympathy for Khmer Rouge but it seemed to send an innuendo that Cambodia had some sympathy when its millions of people were killed.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-had-no-sympathy-for-khmer-rouge-values-ties-with-cambodia-and-vietnam-mfa-135329618.html

The victim, Cambodia, has accused PAP of supporting the Khmer Rouge and wished for its return.  This showed that Cambodia took the PAP's message to heart in a very bad way.

Vietnam and Cambodia denounced the PAP wrong interpretation of their histories and PM Lee had stirred up their painful past.

Vietnam and Cambodia are both ASEAN members.  They will oppose SG in the future in the ASEAN summit if they don't forgive SG.

Baltic dry index - 1138

Today, Friday, June 07 2019, the Baltic Dry Index showed no change, remaining at 1138 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
=====================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 975

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Coso.

Friday, June 7, 2019

The recalcitrant PAP refused to back down.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/cambodia-pm-hun-sen-pm-lee-comments-an-insult-to-sacrifice-of-vietnam-military-volunteers-090405166.html

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vietnams-objection-to-pm-lees-remarks-doesnt-change-past-as-many-view-it-tan-chuan-jin-075804335.html

Look here! The only 2 countries that knew the truth were Cambodia and Vietnam, not SG and other countries.  These 2 countries are condemning SG now.

PAP is accusing Vietnam of being the invader and Cambodia the victim.  Let's put this in a satirical perspective (Vietnam-rapist, Cambodia-victim).  SG is accusing Vietnam of raping Cambodia in the past.  However, the rapist and victim denied the rape.  SG, being the bystander, insisted that Vietnam raped Cambodia.  Does this make sense?  Cambodia, being the victim, won't deny the rape if it did happen. 

Just look at the Japanese invasion!

South Korea, China and the rest of the world did not deny that their women were raped and forced to become comfort women. These countries insisted that it did happen!

History is not defined by politicians or else it will become a fake history when it is interpreted by politicians.

What good can SG derive out of this political squabble?  SG will only offend the 2 ASEAN nations for nothing.

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.06 0.11 Buy
02/13/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.082 0.11 Buy DCF
03/05/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.077 0.11 Buy DCF
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.081 0.095 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.076 0.1 Buy

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.3 0.33 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.3 0.37 Add Sum of parts
02/21/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.3 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
03/26/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.315 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
05/31/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.24 0.34 Buy Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.245 0.26 Hold

MIT - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 Lim & Tan MIT 0.36 0.405 Buy Mid-point of $0.4-0.41

Stock calls for 7 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/07/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.51 0.67 Add
06/07/19 CIMB Propnex 0.49 0.64 Add
06/07/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.38 0.48 Buy DCF
06/07/19 CIMB UOL 6.8 8.45 Add

Google has just realized its future is in danger.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/google-flags-u-national-security-044420067.html

It has just dawned on google now that it made a mistake on Huawei ban.

Hahaha! We had already stated this in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/google-has-just-killed-its-own-future.html

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.655 0.87 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.66 0.83 Buy DCF

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.67 1.7 Accumulate PER15x FY19
05/02/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.63 1.63 Neutral PER15x FY20

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/19/19 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.06 Sell Sum of parts
03/19/19 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.158 Hold PB0.48x CY18

Stock calls for 6 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.5 0.67 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.665 0.62 Neutral
06/06/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.46 2.33 Hold
06/06/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.77 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.48 0.61 Buy
06/06/19 phillip DBS 24.27 29 Accumulate
06/06/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.56 1.53 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.25 Neutral
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.51 1.7 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.24 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.86 1.02 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.069 0.08 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.71 0.94 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.23 0.29 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.43 0.4 Neutral
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.74 0.8 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.23 0.23 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.845 0.96 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.5 1.6 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.076 0.1 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.825 0.9 Buy
06/06/19 phillip OCBC 10.63 12.7 Accumulate
06/06/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.68 0.76 Take Profit
06/06/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.04 5.44 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.1 1.25 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.53 0.65 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.385 0.48 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.21 3.35 Neutral
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.21 3.55 Buy
06/06/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.31 2.86 Buy Sum of parts
06/06/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 4 4.45 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 4 4.5 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.735 0.78 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.49 1.72 Neutral
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.84 0.92 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.84 0.91 Buy
06/06/19 phillip UOB 24 30.9 Accumulate
06/06/19 DMG & Partners UOB 24 30.8 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.3 3.94 Buy

Trump is threatening China again with more tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/trump-says-tariffs-on-china-could-be-raised-by-another-300-billion.html

China is prepared for a full-scale trade war with the US now.  The state media is using the term "trade war" now instead of "trade conflict" in China.

Do not pin any hope that the US and China can reach a trade deal in the G20 summit in June 2019.


Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Is G20 still relevant today?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-weak-growth-test-063632729.html

The cold hard fact is G20 is no longer relevant today.  Why?  This is because it is G2 that decides the world economic growth and not G20.  The G18 never tries to stop the G2 trade war but joins in the trade war by fighting against the G2.

Cambodia and Vietnam condemn PM Lee's remarks.

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/05/diplomatic-rift-mounting-between-cambodia-and-sg-over-pm-lees-remark-on-fb/

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/05/vietnam-joins-in-to-condemn-pm-lees-online-remark/

It is a fact that our PM Lee doesn't understand history as well as his father.  His ignorance caused Cambodia and Vietnam to condemn SG and make SG lose face. Sigh!

Just look at PM Lee's stance on Japan's heinous war crimes.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/whats-wrong-with-singapores-mindset.html

Even our PAP MP doesn't understand ASEAN history well.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/singapore-has-no-future-when-weve.html


How does a Cambridge professor view China?

An impartial and objective opinion from a Cambridge Professor about China.

China is right to support Venezuela.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/xi-says-china-play-constructive-015417369.html

The UN only recognizes the elected President of Venezuela and not any self-proclaimed President which is endorsed by the western countries.

Maduro is the legitimate and the only elected President and China is right to support him.

With China and Russia's support, the US will have limited influences in Venezuela and Venezuela will be more stable without the US intervention.

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates because of the trade war? - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-wall-street-surges-powells-161900316.html

The US stock market's surge last night was caused by Fed Powell speech which hinted that he would cut interest rates.  However, the US stock market is just having some dead cat bounce and the US economy is still deteriorating.  At the end of the day, the US stock market still must reflect the true economic condition.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

This interest rate reduction had been predicted by us in our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

We indicated that the US Fed would be willing to cut interest rates by analyzing the 4 US Fed interest rates.

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

China has issued a travel alert to USA.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-warns-companies-u-travel-091736491.html

China is trying to reduce its services trade deficit with the US by discouraging China tourism in the US.

This US-China trade war will escalate further and may balkanize the world into 2 (US vs China).  We'll have to choose to adopt US technology or China technology in the future.

Memtech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.03 0 Buy on weakness
02/28/19 CIMB Memtech 1.03 1.08 Hold PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.985 1.33 Buy PER11x FY19
04/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.96 1.33 Buy
05/15/19 CIMB Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.35 Buy
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
02/09/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.31 1.45 Buy
05/02/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.4 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.6 Buy DCF

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.26 1.42 Add DDM
01/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.33 1.39 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.4 Buy
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.3 Hold DDM
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.44 Add DDM
02/28/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.3 Hold
03/07/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.42 1.5 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.44 1.45 Hold
04/29/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.4 Hold
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.6 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.48 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.47 1.38 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.39 Hold Buy @ $1.26

Stock calls for 4 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/04/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.245 0.26 Hold
06/04/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.38 3.03 Buy Sum of parts
06/04/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.39 1.99 Buy PB1.8x FY20

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy.


We have put in the above PMI numbers on our PMI flow chart to give our viewers a clearer picture.


The PMI headline number has decreased from 52.8 (April) to 52.1 (May).

Let's suss out the real situation in the US.

The new order increased by 1 because of the new export order (+1.5) but the local order decreased.  In other words, this showed that the local consumption had decreased in May which meant that the US citizens were holding back their purchases.  The new export order increased because Trump forced other smaller nations to buy more from the US with tariff threats.

Although the new order increased by 1 in May, the production sub-index decreased by 1.  This showed that the manufacturers didn't expect the increase to continue and they were just producing to meet their existing orders.  This was substantiated with the increase in customers' inventories and a decline in backlog of orders (-6.7).  The inventories and supplier's deliveries also declined because of the production cut.  The employment sub-index looked set to decline if the production cut persisted because manufacturers would cut inventories first before laying off workers.

The prices sub-index increased by 3.2 because the manufacturers switched to local raw materials which were costlier.  Moreover, the tight labour market also induced the manufacturers to pay higher salaries.

Since local consumption makes up close to 70% of the US economy, the US GDP is likely to decline further as the US citizens are not spending like before as prices have increased.  The US-China trade war is beginning to hurt the US economy now.

Singapore PMI is in a contraction mode (49.9)

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pmi-drops-below-50-for-first-time-in-almost-3-years-024900712.html

Any number below 50 is a contraction phase and PMI is a leading indicator of the GDP.  However, comparing the month-on-month PMI headline numbers is not the right way to interpret the PMI.  It looks like our next GDP number won't look good from the PMI.

Please look at our previous post if you want to learn about the interpretation of PMI.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Monday, June 3, 2019

Why must we be vigilant of the political arena in the financial market?

The reason is very simple.  We will get caught in the whirlpool if we are not vigilant of our surroundings.

A youtube video below aptly depicts the gravity of the situation when one is not vigilant.


Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 1.97 2.04 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.1 Add DDM
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 1.98 2.22 Buy PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19 DIR Mapletree Industrial 1.98 1.78 Underperform
01/24/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 1.96 2.03 Neutral DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 1.96 2.2 Buy DDM
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.03 1.94 Hold Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 2.03 2.04 Hold
02/15/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.03 Neutral
02/19/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 1.99 1.98 Hold
02/20/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.3 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.12 2.3 Buy
04/04/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.11 2.25 Buy DDM

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/24/19 OCBC Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.79 Hold
01/24/19 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.79 Add DDM
01/24/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.72 2 Buy DCF
01/24/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.6 Hold
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.81 2 Buy
02/08/19 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.81 1.9 Add
03/20/19 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.83 1.94 Add DDM
04/04/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Commercial 1.87 1.8 Hold
04/24/19 OCBC Mapletree Commercial 1.84 1.85 Hold
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.89 2 Buy DCF
05/28/19 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.93 2.03 Add

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.77 0.92 Buy
01/02/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.77 0.88 Buy DCF
02/12/19 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.855 0 Hold
02/12/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.855 0.94 Buy DDM
02/12/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.855 0.92 Buy DCF
02/26/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.835 0.95 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.85 0.94 Buy
03/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy DDM
04/25/19 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.87 0 Hold
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.92 Buy
04/26/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy DDM
04/30/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.88 0.97 Buy DDM
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.87 0.96 Buy DDM
05/29/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.86 1 Buy DDM

Stock calls for 3 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/03/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.5 0.65 Buy DCF
06/03/19 CIMB DBS 24.29 27.64 Hold
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
06/03/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate
06/03/19 OCBC KSH 0.45 0 Cease coverage
06/03/19 Phillip Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy DCF
06/03/19 CIMB OCBC 10.57 12.59 Hold
06/03/19 phillip Propnex 0.5 0.63 Buy DCF
06/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.07 5.05 Hold Buy @ $4.70
06/03/19 Phillip Singtel 3.2 3.66 Buy EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19 Phillip Starhub 1.49 1.62 Accumlate EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/03/19 CIMB UOB 23.5 29.58 Add
06/03/19 CIMB Valuetronics 0.605 0.63 Hold PER8x CY20
06/03/19 DBS Vickers Yoma 0.33 0.4 Buy RNAV (60% discount)

Omg! Boeing has a wing problem now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-737-max-planes-may-192001217.html

We've taken for granted that the US FAA would do a proper aviation safety certification for planes.  It is proven that the FAA is an irresponsible entity and is no longer an independent organization.

If every aviation safety authority starts to check on Boeing, I believe more problems can be found.  We must not trust the FAA anymore.

Saturday, June 1, 2019

The US defense secretary is fear-mongering about China threat in Singapore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/acting-us-defense-secretary-calls-053048457.html

If China's military defence budget of US$176B for 2019 is a threat, then what about the US's military budget of US$686B for 2019? US military budget is 3.9x more than China but China population is 4.7x greater than the USA.

Which one is more of a threat? Spending US$176B to protect 1.4B people or US$686B to protect 300M people?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The US is really treating Asians as stupid people.

Baltic dry index - 1097

Today, Thursday, May 30 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 10 points, reaching 1097 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
========================
Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 984

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms. - Part 2

https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/huawei-reinstated-in-sd-association/

IEEE, SD and Wifi associations have started to reinstate Huawei after the removal.

It looks like China's blacklist is working wonders.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-will-create-blacklist-for.html

If the China blacklist is upheld to the US standards of the entity list, the blacklist will disrupt the supply chains for foreign companies on the list.