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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/18/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.441.45Hold
04/29/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.481.4Hold
04/29/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.481.6Buy
04/29/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.481.48Hold
04/30/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.471.38Hold
05/02/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.481.39HoldBuy @ $1.26
06/06/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.51.6Buy
07/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.611.85Buy
07/23/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.611.4Hold
07/24/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.611.55Hold
07/25/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.61.39HoldDDM
09/18/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.581.85Buy
10/22/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.661.6Hold
10/22/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.661.41Hold
10/22/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.661.55HoldDDM
11/07/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.691.9Buy
12/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.671.9Buy
01/21/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.811.9BuyDCF
01/21/20OCBCMapletree Logistics1.811.59Hold
01/21/20Lim & TanMapletree Logistics1.810Hold
01/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.821.9BuyDCF
01/22/20CIMBMapletree Logistics1.821.56HoldDDM
01/31/20CIMBMapletree Logistics1.851.59Hold
02/04/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.851.9Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.851.9Hold
03/04/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.892.08BuyDDM
04/08/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.631.85Buy
04/27/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.732.08BuyDDM
04/27/20Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.731.85Hold

Stock calls for 27 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/27/20UOB Kay HianCapitamall Trust1.882.6Buy
05/27/20phillipDasin Retail0.830.91AccumulateDDM
05/27/20Lim & TanFood Empire0.5150.63AccumlatePER12.3x FY20
05/27/20UOB Kay HianFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.252.85Buy
05/27/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial1.952.38Buy
05/27/20DMG & PartnersOxley0.230.29BuyRNAV (55% discount)
05/27/20AmfrasersSoilbuild Reit0.380.48Neutral
05/27/20CIMBTop Glove4.425.37AddRinggit target $15.50, PER36.8x CY21

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/03/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.122.3Buy
04/04/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.112.25BuyDDM
06/19/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.172.03Neutral
06/25/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.182.25Buy
07/11/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.292.32AddDDM
07/11/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.292.4BuyDDM
07/11/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.292.5BuyDCF
07/22/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.312.03NeutralDDM, PB1.36x FY19
07/24/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.32.06Hold
07/24/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.32.37Hold
07/25/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.252.29Hold
07/25/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.251.94Hold
08/26/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.282.03Neutral
09/13/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.32.58BuyDDM
09/17/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.332.29Hold
09/19/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.42.5Buy
09/19/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.42.55Buy
09/24/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.472.03Neutral
09/25/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.492.75Buy
09/26/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.492.44AddDDM
10/10/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.52.69Buy
10/18/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.572.06Neutral
10/24/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.522.55Hold
10/24/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.522.9Buy
10/24/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.522.75Buy
11/21/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.52.7Buy
11/25/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.512.03Neutral
12/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.522.75Buy
01/22/20OCBCMapletree Industrial2.782.87Hold
01/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.783Buy
01/23/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.772.9Buy
02/04/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.783Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.683Buy
03/13/20PhillipMapletree Industrial2.772.03Neutral
03/18/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.142.9Buy
04/17/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.412.7BuyDCF
04/28/20Lim & TanMapletree Industrial2.440Hold
04/29/20Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.532.95BuyDDM
04/29/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.532.85Buy
04/29/20CIMBMapletree Industrial2.532.66AddDDM

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/04/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial1.871.8Hold
04/24/19OCBCMapletree Commercial1.841.85Hold
04/25/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.892BuyDCF
05/28/19CIMBMapletree Commercial1.932.03Add
06/21/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.042.22BuyDDM
07/10/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.052.03Add
07/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.072.25BuyDCF
07/26/19OCBCMapletree Commercial2.11.89Sell
07/26/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.12.22Buy
07/26/19Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.10Hold
07/29/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.072.1HoldDDM
08/22/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.082.24Add
08/28/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.122.22Buy
09/09/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.242.39BuyDCF
09/27/19Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.360Hold
09/30/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM
09/30/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.342.1Hold
09/30/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM
10/16/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM, Buy @ $2.16
10/16/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.342.39HoldDDM
10/16/19OCBCMapletree Commercial2.342.28Hold
10/16/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.342.35HoldDDM
11/08/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.392.6BuyDCF
01/23/20Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.442.45HoldDDM
01/24/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.432.6Buy
01/24/20Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.430Hold
02/03/20OCBCMapletree Commercial2.352.44Hold
03/06/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.32.62BuyDDM
03/18/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.772.6Buy
04/02/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.751.9Buy
04/23/20Lim & TanMapletree Commercial1.770Take Profit
04/24/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial1.762.02BuyDDM
04/27/20Kim EngMapletree Commercial1.762.15BuyDDM

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/25/19Lim & TanManulife US Reit0.870Hold
04/26/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8650.94BuyDDM
04/26/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8650.92Buy
04/26/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651BuyDDM
04/30/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.880.97BuyDDM
05/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.870.96BuyDDM
05/29/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.861BuyDDM
06/06/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8450.96Buy
06/17/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.871BuyDDM
06/25/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651Buy
07/04/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.880.96Buy
07/12/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8750.98BuyDDM
08/15/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.890.98outperform
08/15/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.890.98BuyDDM
08/19/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.891BuyDDM
08/23/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8951.1BuyDCF
09/11/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.9150.98Buy
09/20/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.911.05BuyDDM
09/20/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.911BuyDDM
09/20/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.911.01outperform
10/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8951Buy
10/11/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.9051.1BuyDCF
11/01/19CIMBManulife US Reit0.9151.12AddDDM
11/05/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.921BuyDDM
11/05/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.921.1Buy
11/05/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.921.05Buy
12/02/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.9651.03outperform
12/10/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.021Buy
12/13/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit11.1BuyDDM
01/08/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.991.1Buy
02/06/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.041.12BuyDDM
02/06/20DBS VickersManulife US Reit1.041.15BuyDCF
02/06/20Lim & TanManulife US Reit1.040Hold
02/07/20CIMBManulife US Reit1.071.13AddDDM
02/07/20Kim EngManulife US Reit1.071.15BuyDDM
02/11/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit1.051.11Neutral
03/10/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.981.11Neutral
03/20/20DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.5651.15Buy
03/20/20CIMBManulife US Reit0.5651.15Add
03/25/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.70.88BuyDDM
04/07/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.6650.88Buy
05/11/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.7050.9BuyDDM
05/11/20CIMBManulife US Reit0.7051.05Add

Stock calls for 26 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/26/20phillipComfortdelgro1.541.5NeutralDCF
05/26/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.541.45NeutralDCF
05/26/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.541.5HoldPER15x FY20/21
05/26/20Lim & TanComfortdelgro1.540Hold
05/26/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.541.98BuyDCF
05/26/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.541.5Hold
05/26/20UOB Kay HianElite ComReit0.660.88BuyDDM
05/26/20CIMBFirst Resources1.281.8Buy
05/26/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.281.85BuyPER18x FY20
05/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.281.25NeutralPER14x FY20
05/26/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.281.65Buy
05/26/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.281.7BuyDCF
05/26/20UOB Kay HianRiverstone1.872.53BuyPER23.1x FY20
05/26/20DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.230.25NeutralPER9.8x FY21

Monday, May 25, 2020

The US debt market is going to implode!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

As stated previously, the CMBS market is in a precarious situation.

The MBS market is also in the same situation as CMBS because the existing home sales figure is also falling.


Recently, the car rental giant, Hertz, has filed for bankruptcy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/business/hertz-bankruptcy/index.html

This car rental firm bankruptcy has also brought out the car debt market issue into the open.  The US used car prices are falling and many car derivative products (car debts) created by the banks and financial firms are also in a big trouble as there will be a severe mark down in the used car values.

When the US debt market starts to implode, the US economy will explode because its economic growth is based on debts.  An implosion will cause a big explosion!

Let's watch how this will pan out.

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Baltic dry index - 494

Today, Thursday, May 21 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 17 points, reaching 494 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
========================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 318


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

F22 and F35 are no longer stealth anymore.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26971/Venezuelan_Air_Defence_s_Chinese_made_Radar_Detects_US_F_22_Stealth_Jet#.XsjEyRMzaqA

China's long-range radar JY-27 had proven to be able to detect F22 in Venezuela and the F22 pilot turned back after getting a warning from Venezuela.

JY-27 is not the most recent radar and China has upgraded it to JY-27 3D which is more superior.  Therefore, it is unwise to pay so much for F35 as F22 is more superior than F35 since F22 is not for sale.  The US always keeps the best (F22) for itself.

What will happen to SG if Malaysia gets the JY-27 3D?  All SG F35 will become useless as Malaysia will know all our F35 movements?

Friday, May 22, 2020

Lippo Malls - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/21/20CIMBLippo Malls0.2350.24HoldDDM

Lian Beng - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/14/20Lim & TanLian Beng0.5250Buy

Lendlease Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
10/15/19DIRLendlease Reit0.941.01outperform
12/06/19DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.921.05BuyDCF
02/12/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.911.05Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.480.94Buy
04/02/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.520.94Buy
05/08/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.5750.85Buy

Stock calls for 22 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/22/20UOB Kay HianBRC Asia1.151.52Buy
05/22/20DBS VickersDelfi0.831.08BuyPER18x FY20/21
05/22/20CIMBRiverstone1.942.5Add
05/22/20DBS VickersSingtel2.683.22BuySum of parts
05/22/20DBS VickersSPH1.561.57Hold

US CMBS is in a precarious situation now! - Part 2

Why did I say that CMBS was in a precarious situation?

The CMBX index chart showed that the CMBS prices have been falling since the beginning of 2020.  This pushed the US FED to buy the CMBS as part of the pandemic package because some big banks were stuck with unsellable CMBS in their possessions.  These unsellable CMBS will weigh on the cashflow since the banks cannot outsource their risks by selling them to retail investors.  Many insurance companies also possess such CMBS that they cannot sell to potential clients.

The US FED purchases insofar have not yielded any significant result because the commercial real estate transactions have continued to fall.  Ultimately, these declining transactions will impact the physical real estate prices and subsequently affect the CMBS prices.  In the end, the banks and insurance companies will have to shoulder the CMBS losses.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now.html

Thursday, May 21, 2020

US CMBS is in a precarious situation now!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-real-estate-transactions-u-165441099.html

The US commercial real estate transactions have plunged by 71% and this is a precursor sign that the prices will follow suit.  A declining volume usually causes the price to fall in the future because of the mismatch in buyer-seller expectations.

What's the repercussion?

Well, the collapse in prices will affect the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) which the FED has just bought to salvage the US economy.  This will have a multiplier effect on the wider economy and also affect the banking industry.

Let's see how the real situation will play out.


KSH - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/17/19OCBCKSH0.5350.81Buy
05/31/19Lim & TanKSH0.450Buy
06/03/19OCBCKSH0.450Cease coverage
11/12/19Lim & TanKSH0.4650Buy
01/28/20Lim & TanKSH0.4150Buy on weakness
04/06/20Lim & TanKSH0.290Hold

Koufu - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/08/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.8050.95Buy
05/07/19DBS VickersKoufu0.770.8HoldPER17x FY19
05/09/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.750.95Buy
06/13/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.6750.95Buy
06/28/19DBS VickersKoufu0.6750.85BuyPER17x FY19
07/03/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
08/08/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.95Buy
08/08/19DBS VickersKoufu0.710.88BuyPER17x FY20
10/01/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
10/01/19DBS VickersKoufu0.720.88Buy
11/05/19DBS VickersKoufu0.7550.88BuyPER17x FY20
11/06/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.770.95Buy
12/11/19SAC CapitalKoufu0.7650.87Buy
01/06/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7750.88Buy
02/12/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.7250.83Buy
02/13/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7350.84BuyPER17x FY20
03/02/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7050.84BuyPER17x FY20
03/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.81Buy
03/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.710Hold
04/22/20DBS VickersKoufu0.6150.68Hold
04/24/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.60.69Buy