Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 6

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/us/hanna-storm-texas.html

The US typhoon season has started and will last till November 2020.  We did this to ourselves because we created global warming which changed the climate.  Serious floodings have occurred in China, Japan, India, Nepal. South Korea and Russia.  I expect the US to suffer the same fate too.  All these will cause high food inflation as farms are being destroyed.

We did warn you that the financial crisis constellation is aligning below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_75.html

With a stronger US typhoon season this year and the COVID outbreak, the financial tsunami will become inevitable due to the double whammy.  It is a matter of when and not if now.

Sit tight and brace yourself this time!  Remember that we warned you much earlier than others.

Baltic dry index - 1317

Today, Friday, July 24 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 71 points, reaching 1317 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 946

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy
08/13/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.66	0.9	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.66	0.82	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy	PER8.5x
08/22/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.73	0.95	Add
08/22/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.73	0.81	Neutral	PER10x FY20
09/11/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.675	0.81	outperform	PER10x FY20
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.675	0.82	Buy
11/07/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.72	0.94	Add	PER10x FY20
11/07/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.72	0.93	outperform	PER10x FY20
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.72	0.95	Buy	PER9x FY20
11/11/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.76	0.82	Buy	DCF
11/18/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.92	0.93	Neutral	PER10x FY20
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.905	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.89	0.93	outperform	PER10x FY20
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.94	0.92	Neutral	DCF
01/24/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.91	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
02/28/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.865	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
02/28/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.865	1.01	outperform
03/02/20	CIMB	Frencken	0.83	1.06	Add
03/09/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.83	1.05	Buy	DCF
03/10/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.75	1.01	outperform	PER10x FY20
04/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.565	0.74	Buy
04/15/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.71	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.82	0.92	Buy	PER10.4x FY20
06/02/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.81	1.01	outperform	PER10x FY20
06/22/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	0.86	1.15	Buy
07/01/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.88	1.02	Buy	PER10.4x FY21
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.91	0.9	Buy
07/13/20	Kim Eng	Frencken	0.915	1.2	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB1.6x FY20

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/18/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.82	2.05	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
05/14/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.19	1.7	Buy	RNAV (50% discount)
05/14/20	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.19	1.7	Add	RNAV (45% discount)

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.23	0	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.25	Hold
08/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.2	1.27	Add
08/21/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.2	1.22	Hold
11/06/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.25	0	Hold
11/07/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.28	Hold
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.4	Buy	DCF
11/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.31	Add
12/03/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.24	1.31	Add
02/10/20	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.27	1.37	Hold
02/10/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.27	1.32	Add
05/04/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.3	Add
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.15	1.4	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.21	1.4	Buy
07/14/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.43	Add	DDM

Stock calls for 24 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/24/20	CIMB	A-Reit	3.43	3.12	Hold
07/24/20	Jefferies	A-Reit	3.43	3.8	Buy
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.43	4	Buy	DCF
07/24/20	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.43	3.7	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	OCBC	A-Reit	3.43	3.92	Buy
07/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.43	3.65	Buy
07/24/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.68	4.24	Outperform
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.23	1.4	Buy	DCF
07/24/20	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.76	1.98	Add	DDM
07/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.76	1.66	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
07/24/20	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.03	2.33	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.03	2.35	Buy
07/24/20	CIMB	Elite ComReit	0.695	0.761	Add	DDM
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.74	2.35	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.715	0.8	Buy	DDM

The latest US unemployment data is a fudge. - Part 3

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/covid-19-us-jobless-claims-rise-to-1-42-million-amid-surge-12958166

We had stated in June 2020 that the US unemployment figure was fudged by the US government and this jobless claim had proven us right.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-latest-us-unemployment-data-is.html

What’s my take on the possible US-China military confrontation?

Trump has increased the US-China tension recently by expelling China consulate in Houston after the US military exercise in South China Sea. Consequently, China will retaliate by expelling one US consulate in China too.

As for the US-China military confrontation, I think it is unlikely to happen after observing the recent US military exercise. Why? This was because the US military exercise excluded the military scenario of China using its DF missiles against the US. This should be a compulsory military scenario because the DF missiles can destroy a US carrier and also the military base in Guam.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dongfeng_(missile)

I anticipate that China will be using DF21D and DF17 to destroy the US aircraft carriers and destroyers to make the US stay away from South China Sea while DF26 will be used to destroy the military base in Guam. The latest US military exercise excluded all these scenarios because the US was still conducting the military exercise in South China Sea. The US military exercise only proved to be a farce without any real intention to have a military confrontation with China. Trump is truly a showman!

The latest Pentagon simulations also showed that the US would lose the war in South China Sea.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1589788329-us-would-lose-all-out-war-against-china-in-the-pacific-pentagon-simulation-shows

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1181080/South-China-Sea-World-War-3-news-Beijing-US-naval-war-simulation-Kyle-Mizokami

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/

If the US insists on going to a war with China, this war will end once China sinks a US aircraft carrier because this will make the other aircraft carrier stay away from South China Sea. In a nutshell, China will try to end this war by sinking a US aircraft carrier rather than to destroy the military base in Guam so that the war won’t escalate further since both countries have nuclear weapons.

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.72	0.77	Hold	DCF
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.715	0.77	Hold
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Hold	DCF
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
01/28/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.715	0.78	Hold	DCF
02/17/20	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.69	0.8	Buy
04/21/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.5	0.65	Buy
05/12/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.475	0.65	Buy	PB0.9x
07/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.47	0.58	Buy	DDM

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.68	1.65	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.7	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.7	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.6	1.7	Hold	DCF
10/23/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.65	Neutral	DDM
10/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.76	Hold
10/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.71	Add	DDM
12/03/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.71	1.68	Take Profit	PB1.05x
12/03/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.71	1.71	Add

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.25	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.95	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/22/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.36	Neutral
07/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.66	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.8	Buy	DDM
07/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.69	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.79	Add	DDM
07/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	0	Hold
07/26/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.63	2.51	Neutral
07/29/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate	DDM
08/22/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.79	Add
08/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate
08/30/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.9	Add	DDM
08/30/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.55	Neutral	DDM
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.8	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.71	2.77	Accumulate
10/02/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.95	Buy
10/18/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.77	2.77	Accumulate
10/24/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	2.55	Neutral	DDM
10/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	2.75	Hold
10/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	3.05	Buy
10/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	0	Hold
10/25/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.75	3.11	Accumulate	DDM
11/18/19	Citibank	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	3	Buy
11/25/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.76	3.11	Accumulate
11/25/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.76	2.89	Add
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.55	Neutral
12/16/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.67	3.11	Buy
12/19/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.95	Buy
01/23/20	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.8	2.85	Hold	DDM
01/23/20	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.8	0	Hold
01/23/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.8	3.05	Buy
01/24/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.86	2.95	Buy
01/29/20	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.86	3.11	Accumulate	DDM
02/03/20	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.88	2.93	Hold
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.84	2.95	Buy
03/09/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.97	3.35	Buy
03/13/20	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.73	3.11	Accumulate
03/16/20	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.56	3.07	Buy
03/31/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.18	3.1	Add
04/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.1	2.05	Hold
04/14/20	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	1.93	2.23	Buy
04/23/20	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.1	2.55	Neutral
04/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.06	2	Hold	Buy @ $1.82
04/27/20	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	1.98	2.24	Accumulate
04/27/20	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	1.98	2.07	Neutral	DDM
04/27/20	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	1.98	2.3	Buy	DDM
05/11/20	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.08	2.39	outperform
05/27/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.25	2.85	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.43	2.65	Buy	PB1.2x
06/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.58	2.85	Buy
06/23/20	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.07	Neutral
07/01/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.31	2.49	Add	DDM
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.32	2.95	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.45x
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.32	2.85	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.34	2.95	Buy

Stock calls for 23 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/23/20	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.76	0	Hold
07/23/20	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.02	2.03	Neutral	DDM
07/23/20	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.02	2.55	Buy
07/23/20	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.02	2.29	Buy
07/23/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.77	0.8	Hold	DCF
07/23/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.535	0.57	Buy	DDM
07/23/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.535	0	Hold
07/23/20	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.97	3.1	Buy

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.525	0.73	Buy	PER13x FY19
11/12/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.54	0.73	Buy
11/21/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.6	0.83	Buy	PER12x FY20
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.6	0.73	Buy
01/17/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.705	0.83	Buy	PER12x FY20
02/05/20	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.66	0.89	Buy
02/26/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.735	0.88	Buy	PER12x FY20
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.735	0.92	Buy	PER12.6x FY20
05/14/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.505	0.75	Buy	PER12x FY20
05/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.49	0.63	Buy	PER12.6x FY20
05/27/20	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	0.515	0.63	Accumlate	PER12.3x FY20
06/09/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.55	0.75	Buy	PER12x FY20

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/26/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.31	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/02/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.6	1.93	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	1.82	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.53	1.6	Hold	Buy @ $1.45
08/15/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.57	1.8	Buy	PER17x FY20
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.57	1.45	Neutral	PER14x FY20
08/15/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.57	1.76	Add
08/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.5	1.6	Hold	Buy @ $1.45
08/21/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.5	1.8	Buy	DCF
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.6	1.9	Buy	PER18x FY20
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.73	1.9	Buy	PER15x FY20
11/12/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.73	1.95	Buy	PER18x FY20
11/13/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.78	1.86	Hold	PER18x FY20
11/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.78	1.85	Buy
11/13/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.78	1.95	Buy	DCF
12/10/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.83	2.1	Buy	DCF
01/20/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.77	2.3	Buy	PER18x FY20
02/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.78	2.1	Buy
02/26/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.66	2	Buy	PER17x FY20
02/28/20	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.63	1.99	Buy	DCF
02/28/20	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.63	1.85	Buy	PER18x FY20
03/24/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.04	1.2	Buy	Sum of parts, PER12x FY20
04/13/20	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.27	1.99	Buy
05/26/20	CIMB	First Resources	1.28	1.8	Buy
05/26/20	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.28	1.85	Buy	PER18x FY20
05/26/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.28	1.25	Neutral	PER14x FY20
05/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.28	1.65	Buy
05/26/20	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.28	1.7	Buy	DCF
06/26/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.33	1.35	Neutral	PER14x FY21