What will the US Fed do for its September FOMC?

Well, the time has come again for the US Fed to decide on its fed rates.  What will the US fed do in September?

It is already cast in stone that the US Fed will cut its rates.  The only question is either a 25bp or 50bp cut.  Let's take a look at the Fedwatch tool.

The Fedwatch tool is showing a 50-50 probability for 25 & 50bp cut.

What's our take on this? We expect the US Fed to do a 25bp rate cut because the US inflation may rebound later as the 5-year Michigan inflation expectation has risen to 3.1% and the monthly core inflation is also on an upward trend.

Michigan inflation expectation (5yr): 3.1%

Baltic dry index - 1890

Related stock: Seatrium, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 590

Related stock: Seatrium & Cosco.

Ascott Residence Trust (ART) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/01/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.07	1.39	Buy	DDM
06/30/23	CIMB	ART	1.09	1.27	Add
07/03/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.08	1.39	Buy	DDM
07/28/23	DBS Vickers	ART	1.11	1.3	Buy
07/28/23	CIMB	ART	1.11	1.27	Add
07/28/23	Kim Eng	ART	1.11	1.2	Buy
07/31/23	Phillip	ART	1.1	1.2	Accumulate	DDM
08/01/23	OCBC	ART	1.12	1.26	Buy
08/02/23	Lim & Tan	ART	1.12	0	Hold
08/04/23	CIMB	ART	1.03	1.32	Add
08/29/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1	1.35	Buy	DDM
09/15/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.99	1.35	Buy	DDM
09/25/23	DBS Vickers	ART	0.975	1.3	Buy
09/26/23	Lim & Tan	ART	0.98	1.23	Accumulate
10/05/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.915	1.27	Buy
10/06/23	Lim & Tan	ART	0.92	1.23	Accumulate
10/09/23	DBS Vickers	ART	0.895	1.3	Buy
10/12/23	Citi Research	ART	0.905	1.1	Buy
10/16/23	Phillip	ART	0.92	1.2	Accumulate
10/30/23	Lim & Tan	ART	0.93	1.19	Accumulate
10/31/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.915	1.25	Buy	DDM
10/31/23	DBS Vickers	ART	0.915	1.2	Buy	DCF
11/01/23	Kim Eng	ART	0.9	1	Buy
11/01/23	CIMB	ART	0.9	1.32	Add
11/01/23	Phillip	ART	0.9	1.04	Buy	DDM
11/07/23	Lim & Tan	ART	0.94	1.13	Accumulate
12/01/23	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.925	1.25	Buy
12/06/23	DBS Vickers	ART	0.95	1.2	Buy
12/12/23	CIMB	ART	0.96	1.32	Add
12/19/23	Lim & Tan	ART	0.96	1.13	Accumulate
12/19/23	Phillip	ART	0.96	1.04	Buy
01/02/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.99	1.25	Buy
01/03/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.99	1.4	Buy
01/22/24	Phillip	ART	0.945	1.04	Buy
01/30/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.95	1.3	Buy	DCF
01/30/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.95	1.45	Buy	DDM
02/06/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.93	1.3	Buy	DCF
02/09/24	Phillip	ART	0.92	1.04	Accumulate	DDM
03/13/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.905	1.45	Buy	DDM
03/28/24	Lim & Tan	ART	0.94	1.18	Accumulate
03/28/24	Citi Research	ART	0.94	1.12	Buy
04/03/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.95	1.45	Buy	DDM
04/03/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.95	1.3	Buy	DCF
04/05/24	CIMB	ART	0.94	1.17	Add	DDM
04/15/24	Phillip	ART	0.93	1.04	Accumulate	DDM
04/25/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.905	1.4	Buy	DDM
05/20/24	Phillip	ART	0.915	1.04	Accumulate
05/20/24	OCBC	ART	0.915	1.13	Buy
06/04/24	Lim & Tan	ART	0.895	1.18	Accumulate
07/05/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.87	1.3	Buy	DCF
07/22/24	Phillip	ART	0.9	1.04	Accumulate	DDM
07/26/24	Lim & Tan	ART	0.9	1.21	Accumulate
07/29/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.9	1.15	Buy	DCF
07/29/24	Kim Eng	ART	0.9	1.1	Buy	DDM
07/29/24	Citi Research	ART	0.9	1.12	Buy	DDM & RNAV
08/22/24	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.885	1.3	Buy
08/26/24	Phillip	ART	0.895	1.04	Buy	DDM
08/26/24	DBS Vickers	ART	0.895	1.15	Buy	DCF