US Q1 2025 GDP update! - Part 2

Let's break down the latest US Q1 2025 GDP result (-0.2%).

The previous Q1 2025 GDP:

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = (-0.25) + 3.6 + 1.21 + (-4.83) = -0.27 (-0.3)

Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-0.12) + 3.98 + 0.8 + (-4.9) = -0.24 (-0.2)

As we compare the 2 estimates, we can see that govt spending (G) is still contracting, the Investment (I) is still expanding because of front-loading, the Consumption (C) is still declining and Net Export (NE) is also still decreasing due to front-loading (Import > Export).

As wholesalers and retailers stock up to avoid more tariffs, this will boost investment but cause net export to fall.  However, we can see that the US consumption is in a free fall now.