Friday, January 23, 2026

The latest US Q3 GDP estimate had only a nuanced revision.

US Q3 GDP (2nd Estimate): 4.4%


Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.
GDP growth = G + I + C + NE
Q3 GDP (First estimate) = 0.39 + (-0.02) + 2.39 + 1.59 = 4.35 (4.3)
Q3 GDP (2nd estimate) = 0.38 + 0.03 + 2.34 + 1.62 = 4.37 (4.4)

The 2nd estimate had only a nuanced revision from the 1st estimate because of the government shutdown that affected the tabulation.  We need to look at the final estimate to get past the government shutdown effect.

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