Wednesday, August 26, 2026

The US GDP growth has remained in a stalemate.


GDP growth = G + I + C + NE
NE=Export - Import
Q1 GDP (Final) = 0.74 + 1.35 + 0.37+ (-0.37) = 2.09 (2.1)
Q2 GDP (1st estimate) = (-0.14) + 0.53 + 2.12 + (-1.01) = 1.5
Q2 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-0.16) + 0.48 + 2.31 + (-1.14) = 1.49 (1.5)
From the GDP breakdown, we can see that the US GDP growth is stagnant because of some small relative changes in the GDP subcomponents.  However, the quarterly core PCE has risen and the GDP growth will be affected if the core inflation persists.

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