https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-apos-economic-growth-slows-005821268.html
It is not surprising that Australia is not immune to external shocks because Asian is slowing down. Furthermore, Australia-China trades are slowing down because of Australia's anti-china policies. These anti-China policies have resulted in the slowdown of the property industry too.
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
The US markets fell heavily because of inverted yield curves.
The 3-year yield is more than the 5-year yield. This means the 3-5 year yield curve has inverted.
The 2-year yield is also more than the 5-year yield. This means the 2-5 year yield curve has also inverted.
The short-term yield curves have inverted and these short-term yield curve inversions will lead to the 2-10 year yield curve to invert too.
The 2-10 yield curve is the pre-eminent recession indicator.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-us-3-year-and-5-year-yield-curve.html
Will the US government shut down in December 2018?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/congress-agrees-to-put-off-government-shutdown-deadline-to-dec-21/2018/12/03/4c306920-f727-11e8-863c-9e2f864d47e7_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3bad844465fd
The US government has no money to pay its government employees again and may shut down in late December which is bad for Christmas.
When a government doesn't have money to pay its employees, do you think it has money to repay its national debt?
The US government has no money to pay its government employees again and may shut down in late December which is bad for Christmas.
When a government doesn't have money to pay its employees, do you think it has money to repay its national debt?
Yellow vest protests in France.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/03/europe/paris-yellow-vest-protests-intl/index.html
The French are protesting their own government for fuel hikes!
We cannot underestimate this protest because it has the potential to spread to other European countries especially when the EU economy is not doing well. The PIGS are especially vulnerable in EU. The PIGS are Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
If Macron cannot resolve this crisis, he will be dethroned by its people. Macron can only delay the fuel hikes to defuse the situation but this will not solve the fundamental problem since the OPEC has the intention to cut fuel supply to prop up the oil price.
The French are protesting their own government for fuel hikes!
We cannot underestimate this protest because it has the potential to spread to other European countries especially when the EU economy is not doing well. The PIGS are especially vulnerable in EU. The PIGS are Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
If Macron cannot resolve this crisis, he will be dethroned by its people. Macron can only delay the fuel hikes to defuse the situation but this will not solve the fundamental problem since the OPEC has the intention to cut fuel supply to prop up the oil price.
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
SLB Dev - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 06/01/18 | SAC Advisors | SLB Dev | 0.215 | 0.28 | Buy |
Singtel - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/03/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.65 | 4 | Neutral | Sum of parts, EV/Ebita13x |
| 01/03/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.65 | 4.53 | Buy | |
| 01/05/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.67 | 4.5 | Outperform | |
| 01/12/17 | Deutsche | Singtel | 3.79 | 4.45 | Buy | |
| 01/17/17 | DIR | Singtel | 3.81 | 3.8 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 01/23/17 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.81 | 4.46 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 02/01/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.87 | 4.53 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/09/17 | Deutsche | Singtel | 3.84 | 4.6 | Buy | |
| 02/09/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.84 | 0 | Buy | |
| 02/09/17 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.84 | 4.27 | Buy | |
| 02/10/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.88 | 4.1 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 02/10/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.88 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 02/10/17 | DIR | Singtel | 3.88 | 3.8 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 02/10/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.88 | 4 | Neutral | Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda12.4x FY18 |
| 02/10/17 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.88 | 3.7 | Hold | DCF |
| 03/02/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.95 | 4.53 | Buy | |
| 03/13/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.94 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 03/17/17 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.95 | 4.25 | Buy | |
| 03/20/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.99 | 4 | Buy | |
| 04/05/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.92 | 4.1 | Add | |
| 04/05/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.92 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 04/05/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.92 | 4 | Neutral | |
| 04/05/17 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.92 | 3.72 | Hold | DCF |
| 04/05/17 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.92 | 4.25 | Buy | |
| 04/13/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.82 | 4.5 | Outperform | |
| 04/13/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.82 | 4.37 | Outperform | |
| 05/19/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.1 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 05/19/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.5 | Outperform | |
| 05/19/17 | DIR | Singtel | 3.76 | 3.8 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 05/19/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.76 | 3.9 | Neutral | Sum of parts |
| 05/19/17 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.76 | 3.7 | Hold | DCF |
| 05/19/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.32 | Outperform | |
| 05/22/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.73 | 0 | Buy | |
| 06/05/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.81 | 0 | Buy | |
| 06/09/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.5 | Outperform | |
| 06/09/17 | Deutsche | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.6 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 06/22/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.77 | 4.3 | Outperform | |
| 06/30/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.88 | 3.9 | Neutral | |
| 07/11/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.9 | 0 | Buy | |
| 07/14/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.86 | 4.32 | Outperform | |
| 07/28/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.97 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 08/02/17 | DIR | Singtel | 3.86 | 3.94 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 08/11/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.1 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 08/11/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.76 | 0 | Buy | |
| 08/14/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.75 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 08/14/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.75 | 3.9 | Neutral | Sum of parts, EV/Ebita13.6x FY18 |
| 08/15/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.77 | 4.32 | Outperform | |
| 09/11/17 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.68 | 4.19 | Buy | |
| 09/14/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.67 | 4.53 | Buy | DCF |
| 09/14/17 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.67 | 3.83 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 09/18/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.67 | 4.6 | Outperform | |
| 09/20/17 | Deutsche | Singtel | 3.68 | 4.4 | Buy | |
| 09/25/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.68 | 4.1 | Add | |
| 09/28/17 | DIR | Singtel | 3.71 | 3.94 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 10/02/17 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.68 | 4.3 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 10/04/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.68 | 4.53 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/26/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.73 | 4.7 | Outperform | Sum of parts |
| 11/02/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.75 | 4.53 | Buy | DCF |
| 11/09/17 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.78 | 3.87 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 11/10/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.1 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 11/10/17 | Credit Suisse | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.7 | Outperform | |
| 11/10/17 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.1 | Neutral | Sum of parts, PER16.6x FY18, EV/Ebitda15.1x FY18 |
| 11/10/17 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.19 | Buy | |
| 11/10/17 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.76 | 4.3 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 11/16/17 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.69 | 0 | Buy | |
| 11/22/17 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.69 | 4.32 | Outperform | |
| 12/06/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.75 | 4.53 | Buy | |
| 12/20/17 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.61 | 4.1 | Add | |
| 01/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.59 | 4.53 | Buy | DCF |
| 01/10/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.63 | 4.1 | Neutral | |
| 01/26/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.62 | 4.3 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 02/07/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.42 | 4.19 | Buy | |
| 02/08/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.44 | 4.1 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 02/08/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.44 | 4.3 | Buy | |
| 02/08/18 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.44 | 0 | Buy on weakness | |
| 02/09/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.4 | 4.15 | Buy | |
| 02/09/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.4 | 4.4 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/09/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.4 | 4 | Add | |
| 03/02/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.36 | 4.4 | Buy | |
| 03/14/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.41 | 3.69 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 03/15/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.4 | 4 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 03/15/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.4 | 4.1 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 04/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.39 | 4.4 | Buy | |
| 04/03/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.39 | 3.69 | Hold | |
| 04/16/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.37 | 4.35 | Buy | |
| 05/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.5 | 4.35 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/04/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.52 | 3.69 | Hold | |
| 05/07/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.5 | 3.85 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/17/18 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.42 | 0 | Buy | |
| 05/18/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.44 | 4.22 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/18/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.44 | 3.9 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/18/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.44 | 3.9 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 05/18/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.44 | 4.1 | Buy | |
| 05/18/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.44 | 3.57 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 06/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.25 | 4.22 | Buy | DCF |
| 06/05/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.27 | 3.85 | Buy | |
| 06/18/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.19 | 3.9 | Add | |
| 06/19/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.19 | 3.7 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 06/19/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.19 | 3.57 | Hold | |
| 06/20/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.18 | 4.1 | Buy | PER18.3x FY19 |
| 06/27/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.12 | 4.05 | Buy | |
| 07/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.05 | 4.22 | Buy | |
| 08/10/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.2 | 4.08 | Buy | |
| 08/10/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.2 | 4.05 | Buy | DCF |
| 08/10/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.2 | 3.7 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 08/10/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.2 | 3.7 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 08/10/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.2 | 3.7 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 08/13/18 | Lim & Tan | Singtel | 3.14 | 0 | Hold | |
| 08/20/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.11 | 3.98 | Buy | DCF |
| 08/24/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.28 | 3.46 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 09/03/18 | DIR | Singtel | 3.23 | 3.47 | Outperform | Sum of parts |
| 09/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.23 | 3.98 | Buy | |
| 09/25/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.15 | 3.94 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.23 | 3.94 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/11/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.14 | 3.7 | Buy | |
| 10/24/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.64 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 11/02/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.18 | 3.94 | Buy | |
| 11/02/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.18 | 3.64 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 11/07/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.17 | 3.7 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 11/09/18 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.59 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 11/09/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.9 | Buy | DCF |
| 11/09/18 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.39 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/09/18 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.95 | Buy | |
| 11/09/18 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.4 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 11/09/18 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.08 | 3.22 | Neutral | |
| 11/14/18 | Macquarie | Singtel | 3.03 | 3.14 | Outperform | |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.09 | 3.9 | Buy | DCF |
Singapore Post - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/11/17 | Deutsche | Singapore Post | 1.525 | 1.7 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 02/10/17 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.475 | 1.76 | Add | DCF |
| 02/13/17 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.47 | 1.62 | Add | DCF, PER21x |
| 02/13/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.47 | 1.34 | Hold | |
| 02/13/17 | Lim & Tan | Singapore Post | 1.47 | 0 | Neutral | |
| 02/13/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.47 | 1.42 | Hold | |
| 02/13/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.47 | 1.46 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.30 |
| 02/15/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.375 | 1.31 | Hold | DCF |
| 03/07/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.38 | 1.39 | Hold | |
| 03/16/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.335 | 1.46 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.30 |
| 03/24/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.325 | 1.34 | Hold | DCF |
| 04/20/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.365 | 1.39 | Hold | |
| 05/09/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.4 | 1.46 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.30 |
| 05/15/17 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.39 | 1.42 | Hold | DCF |
| 05/15/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.39 | 1.2 | Sell | |
| 05/15/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.39 | 1.37 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.25 |
| 05/16/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.34 | 1.26 | Hold | DCF |
| 05/18/17 | Lim & Tan | Singapore Post | 1.31 | 0 | Hold | |
| 06/15/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.2 | Hold | |
| 07/18/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.37 | 1.37 | Hold | Buy @ $1.25 |
| 07/26/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.335 | 1.26 | Hold | DCF |
| 08/07/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.22 | Hold | DCF |
| 08/07/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.37 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.25 |
| 08/07/17 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.35 | Hold | DCF |
| 08/07/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.22 | Hold | DCF |
| 08/07/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.26 | Hold | DCF |
| 09/14/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.25 | 1.22 | Hold | |
| 10/11/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.275 | 1.22 | Hold | DCF |
| 10/11/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.275 | 1.26 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/15/17 | Lim & Tan | Singapore Post | 1.3 | 0 | Hold | |
| 11/16/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.23 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/16/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
| 11/16/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.34 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.20 |
| 11/16/17 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.28 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/16/17 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.26 | Hold | |
| 11/20/17 | Macquarie | Singapore Post | 1.29 | 0 | Underperform | |
| 12/04/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.28 | 1.23 | Hold | |
| 01/10/18 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.23 | 1.26 | Hold | |
| 02/02/18 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.3 | 1.26 | Hold | |
| 02/05/18 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.38 | 1.58 | Add | DCF |
| 02/05/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.38 | 1.62 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 02/05/18 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.38 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/05/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.38 | 1.61 | Buy | DCF |
| 03/06/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.33 | 1.61 | Buy | |
| 03/16/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.37 | 1.6 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 04/02/18 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.37 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
| 04/24/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.31 | 1.6 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/14/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.36 | 1.59 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/14/18 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.36 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/14/18 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.36 | 1.59 | Add | DCF |
| 05/14/18 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.36 | 1.5 | Buy | |
| 05/15/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.37 | 1.55 | Buy | DCF |
| 06/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.32 | 1.59 | Buy | |
| 06/11/18 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.36 | 1.59 | Add | |
| 07/02/18 | Kim Eng | Singapore Post | 1.26 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/06/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.27 | 1.55 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/13/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.3 | 1.59 | Buy | |
| 08/03/18 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.23 | 1.53 | Buy | |
| 08/06/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.25 | 1.28 | Hold | DCF |
| 08/06/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.25 | 1.45 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.23 |
| 08/06/18 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 1.25 | 1.5 | Buy | |
| 08/07/18 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.23 | 1.27 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/05/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Post | 1.03 | 1.04 | Hold | Sum of parts, PER24x FY19, Buy @ $0.90 |
| 11/05/18 | CIMB | Singapore Post | 1.03 | 1.12 | Hold | DCF, PER20.3x FY20 |
| 11/05/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Post | 1.03 | 1.04 | Hold | DCF |
Stock calls for 4 December 2018
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | CSE Global | 0.44 | 0.59 | Buy | |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | DBS | 25.11 | 29.5 | Buy | |
| 12/04/18 | CIMB | EC World Reit | 0.69 | 0.85 | Not Rated | Consensus target price |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.194 | 0.27 | Buy | |
| 12/04/18 | Amfrasers | Geo Energy | 0.178 | 0.21 | Hold | DCF |
| 12/04/18 | DBS Vickers | OCBC | 11.6 | 13.2 | Buy | GGM, PB1.3x FY19 |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | OCBC | 11.6 | 14.05 | Buy | |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.09 | 3.9 | Buy | DCF |
| 12/04/18 | DBS Vickers | UOB | 25.98 | 29.5 | Buy | GGM, PB1.3x FY19 |
| 12/04/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Valuetronics | 0.695 | 0.87 | Buy |
The heinous China! Read this fast before it is taken down.
https://www.boredpanda.com/award-winning-chinese-photographer-vanished-lu-guang-china-xinjiang/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=BPFacebook&fbclid=IwAR0KxlZd3eCPuRFHMIYnFiZN8zBHOoH3nPXaieAHBS8d2eG2eenQv94PBbg
Economic growth under the guise of manufacturing is heinous because the poor is the one suffering.
The manufacturing sector should be well regulated to prevent environmental and bodily hazards. No wonder China is moving away from being a low-cost manufacturing hub because this is simply unsustainable.
Economic growth under the guise of manufacturing is heinous because the poor is the one suffering.
The manufacturing sector should be well regulated to prevent environmental and bodily hazards. No wonder China is moving away from being a low-cost manufacturing hub because this is simply unsustainable.
The US 3-year and 5-year yield curves have inverted!
3-year yield is above 5-year yield now!
What does this mean?
This means that the investors have no confidence in the short-term US economic growth and the US has no money to repay its shorter-term debt which has resulted in the inverted yield curve.
Although the mainstream indicator is the 2-year and 10-year yield curves which have not inverted yet, these shorter-term inverted yield curves may be a harbinger of a recession looming in the future.
Please watch the yield curve closely.
Monday, December 3, 2018
A dead cat bounce for bitcoin - Part 2
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-falls-3-900-084726188.html
We were right about the dead cat bounce.
Bitcoin prices couldn't sustain the short rally after rising above US$4,500 and this proved that the rise was due to the short-covering. By right, the bitcoin prices would continue to rally because investors rushed in the buy at recent low prices. However, the bitcoin prices fell again which showed that more investors took the opportunity to cash out.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/a-dead-cat-bounce-for-bitcoin.html
Why are more investors ditching bitcoin investments now? Read our previous post to find out more.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html
We were right about the dead cat bounce.
Bitcoin prices couldn't sustain the short rally after rising above US$4,500 and this proved that the rise was due to the short-covering. By right, the bitcoin prices would continue to rally because investors rushed in the buy at recent low prices. However, the bitcoin prices fell again which showed that more investors took the opportunity to cash out.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/a-dead-cat-bounce-for-bitcoin.html
Why are more investors ditching bitcoin investments now? Read our previous post to find out more.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html
Singapore O&G - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/13/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 1.185 | 1.5 | Buy | |
| 02/17/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 1.305 | 1.6 | Buy | DCF & PER30x FY17 |
| 02/17/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 1.305 | 1.48 | Buy | PER30.7x |
| 02/20/17 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 1.255 | 1.57 | Buy | PER36.5x FY17 |
| 03/17/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 1.25 | 1.6 | Buy | |
| 04/10/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 1.345 | 1.6 | Buy | |
| 04/17/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 1.36 | 1.53 | Buy | PER31.8x FY17 |
| 05/16/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 0.67 | 0.8 | Buy | DCF & PER30x |
| 05/16/17 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.67 | 0.79 | Accumulate | PER36.5x FY17, Split 1 into 2 |
| 06/16/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 0.66 | 0.8 | Buy | |
| 06/19/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 0.65 | 0.74 | Buy | |
| 08/11/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 0.49 | 0.59 | Buy | PER26.5x FY18 |
| 08/11/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 0.49 | 0.41 | Fully Valued | PER20x FY17/18 |
| 08/14/17 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.475 | 0.65 | Buy | PER29x |
| 10/04/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 0.465 | 0.59 | Buy | PER26.5x FY18 |
| 10/05/17 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.475 | 0.65 | Buy | PER29x |
| 10/16/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 0.52 | 0.62 | Buy | PER27.9x FY18 |
| 11/09/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore O&G | 0.535 | 0.52 | Hold | PER25x FY18 |
| 11/09/17 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore O&G | 0.535 | 0.59 | Buy | PER27.1x FY18 |
| 11/09/17 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.535 | 0.62 | Accumulate | PER29x |
| 02/20/18 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.385 | 0.42 | Accumulate | PER23.2x |
| 05/15/18 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.38 | 0.42 | Accumulate | PER23.2x |
| 08/14/18 | phillip | Singapore O&G | 0.36 | 0.42 | Accumulate | PER23.2x |
Singapore Myanmar - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/03/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.58 | 0.97 | Buy | PER16x FY19 |
| 02/09/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.605 | 0.97 | Buy | |
| 04/07/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.525 | 0.97 | Buy | PER16x FY19 |
| 05/31/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.525 | 0.97 | Buy | PER16x FY19 |
| 07/03/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.555 | 0.97 | Buy | |
| 11/16/17 | OCBC | Singapore Myanmar | 0.45 | 0.665 | Buy | PER16x FY19 |
Singapore Medical - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/03/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.44 | 0.63 | Buy | DCF, PER27x FY17 |
| 01/23/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.465 | 0.59 | Buy | PER27x FY17 |
| 02/17/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.56 | 0.59 | Buy | |
| 03/01/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.585 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF, PER27x FY18 |
| 03/01/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.585 | 0.67 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 04/05/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.565 | 0.67 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 04/21/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.55 | 0.78 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 04/24/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.615 | 0.79 | Buy | DCF, PER28x FY18 |
| 06/05/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.605 | 0.78 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 08/16/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.615 | 0.78 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 08/16/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.615 | 0.79 | Buy | DCF, PER27x FY18 |
| 10/19/17 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.625 | 0.79 | Buy | DCF, PER26.5x FY18 |
| 10/20/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.615 | 0.78 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 11/13/17 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Medical | 0.6 | 0.75 | Buy | PER25x FY18/19, PEG0.3x |
| 11/30/17 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.57 | 0.78 | Buy | |
| 01/24/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.605 | 0.79 | Buy | |
| 01/26/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.63 | 0.83 | Buy | PER26.8x FY18, PEG0.3x |
| 02/06/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.58 | 0.79 | Buy | DCF, PER27x FY18 |
| 03/01/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.56 | 0.83 | Buy | PER26.8x FY18 |
| 03/02/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Medical | 0.56 | 0.73 | Buy | |
| 03/02/18 | Kim Eng | Singapore Medical | 0.56 | 0.7 | Buy | PER27x FY18 |
| 03/02/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.56 | 0.68 | Buy | DCF, PER26x FY18 |
| 03/19/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.51 | 0.74 | Buy | PER25.8x FY18 |
| 05/16/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.505 | 0.74 | Buy | PER26.8x FY18 |
| 05/16/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.505 | 0.68 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/16/18 | DBS Vickers | Singapore Medical | 0.505 | 0.73 | Buy | PER25x FY19 |
| 06/06/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.495 | 0.74 | Buy | |
| 06/27/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.46 | 0.68 | Buy | |
| 07/31/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.425 | 0.56 | Buy | DCF, PER21.5x |
| 08/15/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.43 | 0.56 | Buy | DCF |
| 08/16/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.425 | 0.74 | Buy | |
| 11/07/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Singapore Medical | 0.4 | 0.74 | Buy | PER22.2x FY19 |
| 11/08/18 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.41 | 0.56 | Buy | DCF |
Stock calls for 3 December 2018
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 12/03/18 | UOB Kay Hian | Capitaland | 3.12 | 4.4 | Buy | RNAV (20% discount) |
| 12/03/18 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.16 | 2.5 | Buy | |
| 12/03/18 | OCBC | Frasers Logistics | 1.06 | 1.19 | Buy | |
| 12/03/18 | OCBC | Keppel DC Reit | 1.36 | 1.48 | Buy | |
| 12/03/18 | DBS Vickers | Keppel Reit | 1.15 | 1.41 | Buy | |
| 12/03/18 | DMG & Partners | Keppel Reit | 1.15 | 1.06 | Neutral | |
| 12/03/18 | DMG & Partners | Kimly | 0.255 | 0.27 | Neutral | DCF |
| 12/03/18 | OCBC | Mapletree North Asia | 1.13 | 1.34 | Buy |
The US-China truce has different interpretations.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-apos-descriptions-trump-xi-041500240.html
Look like the trade tension will escalate after 90 days because both sides have different interpretations of the truce.
Companies will not change their investment decisions based on a 90-day truce. Therefore, nothing will change in the real business world. The only thing that will change is the stock investors' behaviour but this will not affect the companies' earnings. Fundamentally, it is a company's earnings that will affect or support the stock price. Investors react positively to the truce but this is just a knee-jerk reaction as businesses will remain the same.
Look like the trade tension will escalate after 90 days because both sides have different interpretations of the truce.
Companies will not change their investment decisions based on a 90-day truce. Therefore, nothing will change in the real business world. The only thing that will change is the stock investors' behaviour but this will not affect the companies' earnings. Fundamentally, it is a company's earnings that will affect or support the stock price. Investors react positively to the truce but this is just a knee-jerk reaction as businesses will remain the same.
Sunday, December 2, 2018
No trade deal between US and China in G20.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-us-donald-trump-xi-jinping-trade-tariffs-10988876
Nothing was achieved in the G20 between US and China. Both sides are trying to act cordially in front of the media but fundamentally, nothing has changed.
The existing punitive tariffs are still in place but more ineffective on-going talks will continue. There are huge gaping fundamental differences which are just impossible to resolve. Furthermore, the US will continue to embark on smearing campaigns against China to achieve its aims of getting China to submit. This is definitely a bad strategy to get China to a trade deal because China won't submit due to its nationalistic characteristic.
Nevertheless, the existing tariffs will contain the economic growth of both countries and this trade war will escalate in 2019. Therefore, 2019 will be a bad year for the world.
Nothing was achieved in the G20 between US and China. Both sides are trying to act cordially in front of the media but fundamentally, nothing has changed.
The existing punitive tariffs are still in place but more ineffective on-going talks will continue. There are huge gaping fundamental differences which are just impossible to resolve. Furthermore, the US will continue to embark on smearing campaigns against China to achieve its aims of getting China to submit. This is definitely a bad strategy to get China to a trade deal because China won't submit due to its nationalistic characteristic.
Nevertheless, the existing tariffs will contain the economic growth of both countries and this trade war will escalate in 2019. Therefore, 2019 will be a bad year for the world.
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