Keppel Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/22/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.31	Buy	DCF
01/22/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.34	Add	DDM
01/22/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.06	Neutral	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.35	Buy
03/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.28	1.35	Buy	DDM
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.06	Neutral
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.29	1.35	Buy	DDM
04/18/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.12	Neutral	DDM
04/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.38	Buy	DCF
04/18/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.24	0	Hold
04/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.37	Buy	DDM
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.4	Buy	DCF
04/25/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.34	Add	DDM
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.37	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.28	1.12	Neutral
07/16/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.41	Add	DDM
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.2	Neutral	DDM
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.37	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.26	0	Hold
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.2	1.45	Buy

Keppel KBS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.61	0.78	Buy	DCF
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.68	0.8	Buy	DCF
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.705	0.8	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.74	0.8	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.75	0.9	Buy	DCF
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel KBS	0.79	0.88	Buy	DDM
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.82	0.9	Buy

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.515	0.58	Buy	DDM
03/15/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.485	0	Hold
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.48	0.58	Buy	DDM
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.505	0.58	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 23 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/23/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.59	28.3	Neutral
08/23/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.188	0.19	Neutral	PER10x
08/23/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.895	1.1	Buy	DCF
08/23/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.32	Buy

Keppel DC Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.36	1.45	Accumulate
01/23/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.52	Accumulate	DDM
01/23/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.51	Add	DDM
01/23/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.45	1.52	Accumulate
03/12/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy
04/08/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.47	1.62	Buy	DDM
04/09/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.48	1.54	Add	DDM
04/16/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.64	Buy
04/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	0	Hold
04/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.59	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.37x FY19
05/02/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.51	1.62	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.64	1.59	Accumulate
07/10/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.67	1.54	Add
07/17/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.93	Buy
07/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.9	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.71	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.67	Hold	DDM
07/23/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.75	1.71	Neutral
07/26/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.93	Hold

Keppel Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	5.81	7.25	Buy	Sum of parts
01/10/19	DIR	Keppel Corp	6.18	7.15	Buy	Cut from $7.86, Sum of parts
01/23/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.17	8.28	Add
01/25/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.13	7.55	Buy
01/25/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.13	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
01/28/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.2	0	Hold
01/29/19	Amfrasers	Keppel Corp	6.14	7.5	Hold
01/29/19	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	6.14	8.2	Outperform	Sum of parts
02/21/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.32	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
03/12/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.1	0	Hold
03/26/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.17	8.41	Add
04/15/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.62	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
04/22/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.74	7.83	Buy
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.74	0	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.72	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
06/10/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	6.05	7.33	Buy	Sum of parts, Cut from $7.92
06/21/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.57	9	Buy
06/28/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.67	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
07/03/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.77	9.2	Buy
07/03/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.77	7.83	Buy
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.3	Buy	Sum of parts
07/19/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.59	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.61	Buy	Sum of parts
07/19/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.59	0	Hold
07/22/19	Amfrasers	Keppel Corp	6.57	7.43	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/22/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.57	8.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/22/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.9	0	Buy

Jumbo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.415	0.44	Hold	PER23x FY19
02/15/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.415	0.52	Add	PER21x FY20
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.415	0.41	Hold	Buy @ $0.37
03/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.37
03/29/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.395	0.5	Buy	PER23x FY19/20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.405	0.51	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.32
05/16/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.405	0.52	Add	PER21x FY20
06/21/19	DMG & Partners	Jumbo	0.38	0.47	Buy	DCF, PER23x FY19
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.38	0.47	Buy	PER23x FY20
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	Jumbo	0.375	0.47	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.375	0.37	Hold

Stock calls for 22 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/22/19	DIR	Capitaland	3.5	4.1	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
08/22/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.79	Add
08/22/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.73	0.95	Add
08/22/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.73	0.81	Neutral	PER10x FY20
08/22/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.435	0.4	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/22/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.9	0	Buy
08/22/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	2.08	2.24	Add
08/22/19	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.925	0.83	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/22/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.81	4.58	Add
08/22/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.81	3.89	Hold

Hong Kong workers are forced to take unpaid leaves now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-hotel-workers-paying-020839342.html

We stated that Hongkongers would be the ones paying a huge price in our previous post.  It is already happening now in the HK hotel industry because workers are being forced to take unpaid leaves due to poor businesses.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-did-us-and-taiwan-engineer-hong.html

This economic slowdown will spread to other sectors because China has decided to transfer its "love" for the long lost child (HK) to Shenzhen.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/omg-china-has-displaced-hong-kong-with.html

Germany flopped in its negative yield bond sales.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-sees-anemic-demand-30-100930717.html

The 30y Germany bonds were severely undersubscribed and this denoted that the investors were rejecting the negative yield bonds.  We did state that the current world was not built for a negative yield environment.  The world is in a conundrum now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-new-world-unchartered-territory.html

When the governments cannot raise funds for economic developments in a negative yield environment, they'll have to raise interest rates to attract investors to buy their bonds but the economic situation doesn't allow interest rates to be raised.

When the strongest economy, Germany, cannot raise enough funds, the other weaker European economies cannot raise funds too.  Therefore, the EU is badly in need of cheap funding and will need TLTRO urgently in September.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-targeted-longer-term.html

Why is Renminbi (RMB) depreciating again?

The RMB or CNY is depreciating again because of the imposition of China new loan prime rate (LPR).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-rates-explainer/explainer-how-chinas-new-interest-rate-reforms-will-work-idUSKCN1V90Q8

China is facing tremendous pressure to stimulate its decelerating economy but it doesn't want to reduce its official bank interest rates because this will disrupt its property industry.  Therefore, it has come up with a new LPR which is based on MLF to be used as the benchmark for commercial loans (SMEs) and the LPR is lower than the current lending rate.

Like I said before, the money will flow from a low-interest rate country to a high-interest rate country.  Consequently, there is lesser demand for RMB after the LPR and this causes RMB to depreciate.

Huawei had repented and given my parents 4 $100 e-vouchers as compensations.

I've just bought 4 Huawei Y6 Pro for my parents and another 2 elders with the 4 $100 e-vouchers given by Huawei.  How did I get the e-vouchers? Well, I emailed to Huawei to complain about its bad promotion behaviour and also give it the greatest piece of my mind.

I would like to compliment Huawei for the generosity given.

My life philosophy is simple: If you treat me good, I will treat you better.  If you treat me bad, I will treat you worse.

I lambasted Huawei previously for its bad behaviour.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/huawei-deceived-elderly-singaporeans.html

Now, I will compliment Huawei for its generosity to compensate my parents.  Well done and keep up the good work!

Jardine C&C - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.28	43.1	Buy
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.52	39.1	Buy	Sum of parts (16% discount)

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.82	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
01/30/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.81	0.99	Buy
03/01/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.765	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
03/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.705	0.98	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY19
03/05/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.705	0.8	Buy	Sum of parts (15% discount), PER11.4x FY19
03/14/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.715	0.63	Reduce	Sum of parts
03/21/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.65	1.05	Buy	Sum of parts
04/02/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.665	1.05	Buy
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.61	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/27/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.575	0.93	Buy	Sum of parts
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.515	0.48	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.42
08/01/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.51	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.5	0.53	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER12.5x FY19

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
02/12/19	Amfrasers	5OI	Japan Foods	0.415	0.57	Hold	37.35	DCF
03/08/19	DMG & Partners	5OI	Japan Foods	0.43	0.45	Neutral	4.65
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	5OI	Japan Foods	0.435	0.45	Neutral	3.45
05/22/19	Amfrasers	5OI	Japan Foods	0.44	0.55	Neutral	25.00	DCF
05/23/19	DMG & Partners	5OI	Japan Foods	0.44	0.4	Hold	-9.09
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	5OI	Japan Foods	0.43	0.4	Neutral	-6.98

Stock calls for 21 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/21/19	Citibank	ESR-Reit	0.51	0.57	Buy
08/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.5	1.6	Hold
08/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.2	1.27	Add
08/21/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.720	0.73	Hold	offer at $0.73
08/21/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.69	12.53	Hold

A new world, an unchartered territory – A negative yield environment - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/danish-bank-start-charging-wealthy-112125179.html

The banks are starting to cave into the negative yield environment because their profit margins are shrinking.  The banks have problems making good earnings in a negative yield world because our current financial and economic structures are not built for this.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-new-world-unchartered-territory.html

Jadason - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Jadason	0.02	0.066	Add
05/13/19	CIMB	Jadason	0.038	0.059	Add	PB1x CY19

ISOTeam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/18/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.22	0.23	Neutral	DCF
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.22	0.29	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.23	0.29	Buy
07/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.245	0.3	Buy	PER12.4x FY20
07/25/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.245	0.31	Buy	DCF
07/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.245	0.34	Buy	PER12.4x FY20

ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Add	PER10x CY20
07/01/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.235	0.32	Add
08/19/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.192	0.27	Add

Stock calls for 20 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.46	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Hyphens Pharma	0.2	0.25	Buy	DCF
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/20/19	CIMB	UOB	25.15	29.54	Add

Thank god! Singapore doesn't need to sell heavily subsidized treated water to JB soon.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-minister-says-johor-to-not-be-dependent-on-singapore-for-treated-water-by-2022-010113972.html

Yeah! SG doesn't need to sell heavily subsidized treated water to JB soon....in 2022!

Malaysia has been taking advantage of SG by buying back treated water cheaply for too long.

Just look at Malaysia's announcement without stating the local water treatment cost per 1000 gallons.  The Malaysian's government is trying to mislead the general public that SG is overcharging MY without stating the true water treatment cost.  The water treatment cost is way higher than $0.50 ringgit per 1000 gallons and it is estimated to be $2.40 ringgit per 1000 gallons (Singapore's treatment cost).

Malaysians should ask their government to come clean with the true water treatment cost but Mahathir won't reveal it.

Water is a strategic supply and should not be held hostage by a foreign country.  Even if the local water treatment cost is higher, the country should produce it locally.  SG is doing that and MY should follow too.  However, by accusing a foreign country of selling the overpriced treated water when instead it is buying the treated water at a heavily subsidized price is a thuggish behaviour.

Nonetheless, SG is happy that this unfair water trade will terminate soon. Cheers!

Cathy Pacific suspends ticket sales at HK airport.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-19/Cathay-Pacific-suspends-tickets-sales-at-counters-at-HK-airport-JhI69AzAkg/index.html

It looks like China is coming down hard on Cathy Pacific.

Cathy Pacific Ceo has rushed to China to try to pacify CAAC so that it can resume its normal flight activities.

It was indeed a flight risk when Cathy Pacific supported its employees to join the HK protests because China couldn't guarantee that Cathy Pacific employees won't do foolish things when the airliner was flying in and out of China airspace since they were emotionally disturbed.

Innotek - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.5	0	Buy on weakness

Indofood Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.2	0.19	Hold	DCF
04/12/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.325	0.33	Hold
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.32	0.29	Hold	DCF

IHH Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.86	2.13	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.45 target price
03/01/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.29	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.90 target
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.79	2.07	Buy	Ringgit $6.30 target price, PER32.8x FY2020
06/12/19	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.09	Add	Ringgit $6.37 target price
07/31/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.88	2.16	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.50 target price

Stock calls for 19 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/19/19	Phillip	APTV	0.17	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
08/19/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.4	4.2	Buy	PB0.75x FY19
08/19/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	9.16	0	Buy
08/19/19	phillip	CNMC	0.3	0.33	Accumulate	DCF
08/19/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.29	0.27	Sell
08/19/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.22	Hold
08/19/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.192	0.27	Add
08/19/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.89	1	Buy	DDM
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
08/19/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.59	Buy
08/19/19	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.885	0.8	Neutral

Omg! China has displaced Hong Kong with ShenZhen in the greater bay development.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/china-to-boost-shenzhen%E2%80%99s-role-in-greater-bay-area-innovation

The HK protestors have just killed their own future and they must be celebrating their "success" now.

China has decided to displace HK with Shenzhen in the greater bay developments with many favourable economic and preferential policies.  HK will lose its importance over time and its economic developments will slow down over time too.

These Hongkongers will need to travel to Shenzhen to find work in the future because HK cannot generate enough job opportunities for these 1.7m protestors in the future with weak economic growth.  HK has fallen from its financial hub pedestal and will never rise back to its glorious heyday again.

RIP, HK!

Is HSBC on China's unreliable entity list?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/hsbc-gets-the-cold-shoulder-in-china

It looks like HSBC is veering towards China's unreliable entity list because it has been excluded from the new loan participation.

HSBC has to do a lot of crisis management and damage control now because China is its major market.  By setting up Huawei and letting HSBC account to be used to fund the HK protests, HSBC has proven itself to be anti-China and all these behaviours have to be corrected before China will trust HSBC again.

Trump: No trade deal before HK problems are solved.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/usd-flat-trump-wants-hong-004100531.html

Look like there is no need for the US and China to meet in September anymore.  It is impossible to solve the HK problems without China's interventions.  The HK chief executive is incapable to solve the HK problems on her own or with her current team.

Look like Trump is compelling Xi to intervene in HK issues or else there won't be any US-China trade deal.  Trump doesn't want China to honour the 1 country 2 systems structure but China wants to honour it by remaining on the sideline.  Therefore, Xi won't intervene unless there is a violent riot or terrorism action in HK.  This is not what Trump wants and Trump won't deal with China as stated.

A billion dollar question: Will the US enter a recession?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-survey-34-expect-us-040446403.html

2% of economists expect a US recession in 2019.
38% of economists expect a US recession in 2020.
34% of economists expect a US recession in 2021.

Mohammad El Erian doesn't expect a US recession.
Janet Yellen doesn't expect a US recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/mohamed-el-erian-inverted-yield-curve-recession-signal-distorted.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/janet-yellen-say-yield-curve-inversion-may-be-false-recession-signal-this-time.html

What's our stance?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/does-us-2-10y-inverted-yield-curve.html

We also expect a US recession and is most probably happening after Q1 2020.

Let's see who will be right.