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Friday, January 3, 2020

Stock calls for 3 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/20 CIMB Boustead 0.76 1 Add Sum of parts
01/03/20 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.11 30 Buy
01/03/20 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.94 1.04 Buy DCF
01/03/20 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.03 14.45 Buy
01/03/20 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.4 3.6 Buy
01/03/20 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.42 1.43 Buy EV/Ebitda6x
01/03/20 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.85 2.08 Buy DDM
01/03/20 Kim Eng UMS 1.08 1.13 Buy PB2.2x FY20

Facebook is intervening in Asia politics under the US directives.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/facebook-steps-up-monitoring-for-taiwan-elections

Facebook is setting up election monitoring offices in Taiwan and Singapore to intervene in local elections.

How will Facebook intervene in Asia's local elections?

First, they will set up a "war room" to monitor the election candidates' groups and remove the FB pages to silence the voices of the election candidates online.  Facebook will only allow the voices of those favoured candidates to be heard or seen online.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201912300015.aspx

FB has already removed Taiwan Han's groups because he is pro-China.  FB may do the same thing in SG by removing the oppositions' groups.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201912130019.aspx

The US layoffs hit its highest level while the unemployment rate was at its lowest.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-hit-4-year-high-in-2019-challenger-gray-data-says-190116585.html

The US unemployment rate was at its lowest while the layoffs hit its highest level.  How come?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html

The only explanation for this conundrum is that the US employment rate has an error since it is survey-based and is subjected to manipulation (fudging).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/08/economic-101-dont-let-unemployment-rate.html


Thursday, January 2, 2020

800Super - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 Phillip 800Super 0.685 0 Cease Coverage DCF
06/10/19 Novus 800Super 0.89 0.9 Accept offer offer $0.90

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.183 0.4 Add PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.183 0.41 Add PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.173 0.33 Add PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.186 0.33 Add PB0.7x FY19
05/17/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.169 0.33 Add PB0.7x FY19
08/15/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.171 0.28 Add

Yoma - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/12/19 DBS Vickers Yoma 0.345 0.4 Buy
04/11/19 DMG & Partners Yoma 0.32 0.57 Buy Sum of parts (20% discount)
06/03/19 DBS Vickers Yoma 0.33 0.4 Buy RNAV (60% discount)
11/15/19 DBS Vickers Yoma 0.375 0.5 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
12/26/19 DMG & Partners Yoma 0.335 0.57 Buy

Stock calls for 2 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/20 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.75 4.5 Buy RNAV (18% discount)
01/02/20 DBS Vickers City Developments 10.95 13 Buy RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
01/02/20 DMG & Partners SGX 8.86 8.8 Neutral PER23x FY21
01/02/20 DBS Vickers UOL 8.32 9.5 Buy RNAV (28% discount), PB0.8x

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.39 1.75 Buy PER5x
04/12/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.47 1.75 Buy PER5x FY19
05/16/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.44 1.68 Buy PER5x FY19/20
05/17/19 DBS Vickers Yanlord 1.44 1.47 Hold PER6x FY19/20
07/15/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.32 1.68 Buy
08/14/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.13 1.68 Buy PER5x FY19/20

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.42 1.82 Buy
03/01/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.43 1.61 Add Sum of parts
03/04/19 OCBC Yangzijiang 1.44 1.44 Hold
03/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 1.44 1.39 Hold PB0.9x FY19, Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.44 1.82 buy Sum of parts, PB1.1x
05/02/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.57 1.61 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/19 OCBC Yangzijiang 1.57 1.45 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.57 1.82 Buy Sum of parts
06/11/19 OCBC Yangzijiang 1.4 1.45 Hold
07/18/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.5 1.82 Buy
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.37 1.82 Buy Sum of parts
08/13/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.04 1.61 Hold Sum of parts
09/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.98 1.46 Buy PB0.84x
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.95 1.46 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.98 1.46 Buy PB0.9x
11/18/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1 1.68 Buy Sum of parts
11/25/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.02 1.45 Add
12/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 1.09 1.46 Buy PB0.84x
12/23/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.07 1.68 Buy
12/27/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.13 1.45 Add

Y Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Y Venture 0.13 0.11 Cease Coverage EV/Ebitda14x FY19
01/28/19 CIMB Y Venture 0.13 0.1 Reduce PB1.7x FY20
03/08/19 Phillip Y Venture 0.078 0.16 Buy PER30x
03/25/19 CIMB Y Venture 0.06 0.15 Add
04/17/19 Phillip Y Venture 0.156 0.16 Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 31 December 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
12/31/19 CIMB AEM 1.99 2.12 Add

How is China's economy doing? - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-markets-following-positive-pmi-214800477.html


China PMI showed a positive reading of 50.2 again in December.

We had stated on numerous occasions that China PMI would be in an expansion mode compared to the US PMI.



The accelerating China PMI will be supporting its economy.

Monday, December 30, 2019

Wing Tai - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.03 2.41 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.06 2.41 Buy
05/14/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.01 2.41 Buy
06/27/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.05 2.41 Buy
07/15/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.07 2.41 Buy
10/15/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.07 2.27 Buy

Wilmar - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.16 3.58 Buy
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.13 3.9 Buy
02/20/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.37 3.42 Hold
02/20/19 UBS Wilmar 3.37 3.8 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.39 3.58 Buy
02/22/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.39 3.96 Add Sum of parts
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.39 3.9 Buy
02/25/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.26 3.63 Buy Sum of parts
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.26 3.6 Buy DCF, PER15.4x FY19
03/12/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.2 3.96 Add Sum of parts
03/12/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.2 3.6 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.24 3.63 Buy
03/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.3 3.9 Buy
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.48 3.9 Buy
04/09/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.49 3.44 Hold PB0.9x
04/09/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.49 3.96 Add
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.64 3.9 Buy
05/13/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.51 3.8 Buy Sum of parts
05/13/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.51 3.86 Buy DCF, PER15.6x FY19
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.5 3.94 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.5 3.66 Hold PB0.95x
05/16/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.5 3.96 Add Sum of parts
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.3 3.94 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.41 3.9 Buy PER12.8x FY20
07/03/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.73 4.21 Buy DCF & PER17.5x FY20
07/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.79 3.9 Buy
07/09/19 UBS Wilmar 3.79 4.5 Buy
07/15/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.76 4.5 Buy Sum of parts
07/16/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.83 5.54 Add Normal target price is $3.96
07/16/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.83 4.3 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.2x FY20
07/17/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.83 4.26 Buy Sum of parts
07/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 4.06 4.5 Buy Sum of parts
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 4.05 4.5 Buy Sum of parts
08/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 4.05 4.5 Buy
08/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.86 4.4 Buy
08/16/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.78 4.26 Buy
08/16/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.78 4.25 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
08/22/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.81 4.58 Add
08/22/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.81 3.89 Hold
09/04/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.8 3.89 Hold DCF
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.8 4.5 Buy Sum of parts
09/13/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.86 4.25 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
09/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.72 4.4 Buy
09/30/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.72 4.75 Buy Sum of parts
10/09/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.63 3.89 Hold DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.63 4.4 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.83 4.4 Buy
11/13/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.85 4.75 Buy Sum of parts
11/14/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.96 4.35 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
11/25/19 CIMB Wilmar 4.1 4.58 Add
12/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 4.1 4.75 Buy Sum of parts
12/10/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 4.1 4.6 Buy Sum of parts, PER17.6x FY20
12/19/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 4.08 4.75 Buy

Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Venture 13.85 19 Buy PER14x FY19
01/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 13.71 12.9 Hold
01/07/19 Lim & Tan Venture 13.71 0 Buy
01/08/19 Kim Eng Venture 14.44 17.48 Buy PB2x FY19, PER14.4x FY19
02/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 15.72 12.9 Hold PER11x FY19, Buy @ $12.40
02/12/19 CIMB Venture 15.97 17.44 Add PER12.56x FY20
02/25/19 CIMB Venture 16.12 17.88 Add PER12.56x FY20
02/25/19 Kim Eng Venture 16.12 19.23 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
02/25/19 DMG & Partners Venture 16.12 19 Buy
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Venture 16.12 21.7 Buy PER15.8x FY19
02/25/19 Lim & Tan Venture 16.12 0 Buy
02/25/19 OCBC Venture 16.12 20.89 Buy PER15x
03/19/19 DMG & Partners Venture 18 19 Buy
03/29/19 DBS Vickers Venture 17.8 21.7 Buy
04/03/19 Lim & Tan Venture 18.6 0 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Venture 19.29 20.89 Buy PER15x FY19/20
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Venture 19.29 19 Neutral
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Venture 19.29 21.7 Buy PER15.8x FY19
04/29/19 CIMB Venture 17.52 17.88 Hold PER12.5x
04/29/19 Kim Eng Venture 17.52 19.74 Hold Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
05/02/19 Lim & Tan Venture 16.97 0 Buy on weakness
05/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 17.4 19.01 Hold Buy @ $17
06/11/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.7 19.74 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
06/25/19 Lim & Tan Venture 17.3 0 Hold
06/26/19 DMG & Partners Venture 16.46 16.3 Neutral PER13x FY19
06/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 16.46 17.91 Hold PER14x FY19, Buy at $15
06/26/19 CLSA Venture 16.46 17.3 Underperform
07/05/19 Lim & Tan Venture 16.35 0 Hold
07/15/19 DBS Vickers Venture 14.9 18.6 Buy PER13.7x FY20
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 14.9 17.91 Hold
07/16/19 CIMB Venture 15 15.73 Hold PER12.5x CY20
07/22/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.54 19.74 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g
08/13/19 Kim Eng Venture 14.76 18.88 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Venture 14.76 16.3 Buy PER13x FY19
08/13/19 CIMB Venture 14.76 16.28 Add PER12,5x
08/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 14.76 17.7 Buy PER14x
08/13/19 DBS Vickers Venture 14.76 18.6 Buy PER13.7x FY20
08/13/19 Lim & Tan Venture 14.76 0 Hold
08/14/19 DIR Venture 15.28 17.9 Outperform
08/14/19 OCBC Venture 15.28 18.42 Buy PER14x
09/09/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.48 18.88 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
09/11/19 Macquarie Venture 15.33 17.7 Outperform Roe-g/Coe-g,PER14x FY19
09/27/19 CIMB Venture 15.26 16.28 Add
09/30/19 Phillip Venture 15.27 17.68 Buy PER14x
10/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 15.31 17.7 Buy
10/01/19 DBS Vickers Venture 15.31 18.6 Buy
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Venture 15.42 16.3 Buy
10/11/19 Phillip Venture 15.17 17.68 Buy
10/21/19 CIMB Venture 15.35 16.28 Add PER12.5x
10/23/19 Macquarie Venture 15.38 17 Outperform
10/29/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.29 18.85 Buy PB2.1x FY20
11/11/19 Phillip Venture 16.6 17.18 Accumulate PER14x FY19
11/11/19 Kim Eng Venture 16.6 16.91 Hold PB1.8x FY20
11/11/19 DMG & Partners Venture 16.6 16.3 Neutral PER13x FY19
11/11/19 CIMB Venture 16.6 16.88 Hold PER12.5x
11/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 16.6 16.67 Hold PER14x FY20
11/11/19 DBS Vickers Venture 16.6 17.2 Hold PER13.7x FY20
11/11/19 Lim & Tan Venture 16.6 0 Sell
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Venture 15.76 16.3 Neutral

Valuetronics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.66 0.87 Buy
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.675 0.82 Buy
01/08/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.69 0.9 Buy PB1.9x FY19
02/14/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.74 1.05 Buy ROE-g/COE-g, PB2.1x FY20
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.74 0.78 Neutral DCF
02/14/19 CIMB Valuetronics 0.74 0.73 Hold PER8.5x CY19
02/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.71 0.87 Buy
03/19/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.69 0.78 Neutral
03/21/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.685 1.05 Buy PB2.1x FY20
04/09/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.7 1.05 Buy
05/27/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.61 0.67 Neutral DCF
05/31/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.625 0.61 Neutral DCF
05/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.625 0.8 Buy
06/03/19 CIMB Valuetronics 0.605 0.63 Hold PER8x CY20
06/11/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.64 0.99 Buy PB2x FY20
08/16/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.62 0.94 Buy ROE-g/COE-g, PB1.9x FY20
08/16/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.62 0.61 Neutral DCF
08/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.62 0.8 Buy
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.615 0.61 Neutral
10/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.615 0.8 Buy PER11x FY20
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.725 0.81 Buy DCF
11/14/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.725 0.98 Buy PB2x FY20
11/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.725 0.91 Buy PER12x
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.785 0.81 Buy

Saturday, December 28, 2019

The recession constellation is aligning in the US!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-novak-2020/russias-novak-says-opec-may-consider-ending-oil-output-cuts-in-2020-idUSKBN1YV0HY

I've stated this a few times on my blog below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-wall-street-analysts-are-starting.html?showComment=1576822097373#c7821513851698794977

Let me surmise again.

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.

All these events are pointing out that March 2020 will be a turning point for the US.

Baltic dry index - 1090

Today, Tuesday, December 24 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 13 points, reaching 1090 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 805


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, December 27, 2019

UOL - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 OCBC UOL 6.07 8.41 Buy
01/04/19 Lim & Tan UOL 6 0 Buy
01/17/19 DBS Vickers UOL 6.65 7.15 Hold
02/12/19 Lim & Tan UOL 6.57 0 Buy
02/27/19 CIMB UOL 6.77 8.45 Add RNAV
02/27/19 OCBC UOL 6.77 8.45 Buy RNAV
02/27/19 Lim & Tan UOL 6.77 0 Buy
02/28/19 DBS Vickers UOL 6.75 7.15 Hold RNAV (40% discount)
03/18/19 OCBC UOL 6.45 8.45 Buy RNAV
03/28/19 CIMB UOL 6.78 8.45 Add
04/02/19 OCBC UOL 7.11 8.45 Buy RNAV
04/16/19 DBS Vickers UOL 7.36 8.53 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/13/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.26 0 Buy
05/13/19 CIMB UOL 7.26 8.45 Add RNAV (30% discount)
05/13/19 OCBC UOL 7.26 8.5 Buy
05/14/19 DBS Vickers UOL 7.08 8.53 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
06/07/19 CIMB UOL 6.8 8.45 Add
07/15/19 OCBC UOL 7.61 8.5 Buy
08/13/19 OCBC UOL 7.2 8.5 Buy
08/13/19 DBS Vickers UOL 7.2 8.53 Buy PB0.8x
08/13/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.2 0 Buy on weakness
09/10/19 DBS Vickers UOL 7.47 8.53 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/19 OCBC UOL 7.91 9.25 Buy
11/13/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.91 0 Buy on weakness
12/03/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.79 0 Buy