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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.88 0.92 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.88 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.87 0.81 Neutral
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.835 0.92 Hold
05/08/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.825 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.75 0.81 Neutral
08/02/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.715 0.77 Hold Sum of parts
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.69 0.71 Neutral Sum of parts
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.665 0.71 Neutral
09/04/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.65 0.67 Neutral Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/06/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.645 0.61 Hold Sum of parts

BRC Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.37 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
08/08/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.31 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
10/01/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.34 1.75 Buy

Boustead - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/23/19 CIMB Boustead 0.735 1 Add Sum of parts

Stock calls for 10 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/10/19 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.12 3 Neutral DDM
10/10/19 Amfrasers China Sunsine 1.12 1.4 Outperform DCF
10/10/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.19 1.21 Hold PB1.5x FY19
10/10/19 SAC Advisors Interra Resources 0.026 0.089 Buy EV/IP reserves 6.4x
10/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.5 2.69 Buy
10/10/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.14 3.44 Hold Sum of parts
10/10/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.14 3.12 Hold EV/Ebitda6x

PM Lee: Choosing between US and China will be painful.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/choosing-between-us-or-china-will-be-painful-says-pm-lee-cnn-interview

It is not a difficult decision to know which side to choose.  Why?

The US is NEVER a trustworthy country.  Just look at the Kurds.  They fought and died for the US and were easily abandoned by the US after outliving their usefulness.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds-part.html

Singaporeans, do you want to suffer the same fate as the Kurds?  The US will have no qualms to abandon SG because we have never fought side by side with the US before.  The US is only interested to sell their weapons to SG!

Furthermore, our neighbour (Malaysia) had chosen China and SG would be on a collision course with Malaysia if we were to side the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

In conclusion, it is a no brainer decision but our government is just blindsided.  We need to know what's at stake here.  Malaysia is just next door but the US is so far away.

The US-China trade talk in Washington broke down again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-china-made-no-231817051.html

This is expected because the US increased the tension prior to the trade talk.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-china-tension-is-rising-rapidly.html

What was the US thinking?

When will China reduce its interest rates? - Part 2

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3032210/china-relaxes-grip-mortgage-rates-and-shanghai-jumps-cut

China has introduced a new property measure by giving empowerment to provincial banks to decide their own mortgage rates.  This is an uncanny central government policy because this involves a big leap of faith in the provincial mayors to rein in their property markets.

Therefore, the central government has also implemented data authenticity accountability as a check and balance measure.  In other words, the provincial mayors and their employees will be punished for fudging their statistics.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/09/WS5d9d17bea310cf3e3556f42c.html

We had stated previously that China would only cut its official interest rates after figuring out how to rein in its property prices.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/when-will-china-reduce-its-interest.html

I guess I am the only one who said what China must do first before cutting its official interest rates.

Nevertheless,  China has staged itself up for an upcoming interest rate cut because China cannot alienate itself from the global rate-cutting frenzy.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

The USA has abandoned the Syrian Kurds. - Part 2

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/who-are-the-syrian-kurds-the-us-is-abandoning/2019/10/07/b0e75ed4-e919-11e9-a329-7378fbfa1b63_story.html

The US has abandoned the Syrian Kurds again!

Yes, again!

We had warned this before (Please see below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-kurds-are-living-in-land-of.html

Biolidics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 CIMB Biolidics 0.27 0.32 Add EV/Sales 12x

Best World - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.56 2.95 Buy DCF & PER18x
02/28/19 CIMB Best World 2.56 2.43 Reduce PER14.9x CY20
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.02 2.95 Buy
04/16/19 CLSA Best World 1.77 1.75 Sell Up from $1.29
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Best World 1.62 0 Cease Coverage Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.57 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
05/22/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.535 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19
08/16/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.455 0.51 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19

Stock calls for 9 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/09/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.32 1.45 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.8 Buy
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.42 2.95 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.42 2.59 Hold
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.69 0.7 Hold
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.715 0.77 Hold
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
10/09/19 OCBC Keppel Corp 5.93 7.58 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 5.93 8.5 Buy
10/09/19 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.215 0.32 Add Sum of parts
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Penguin 0.62 0.85 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.11 3.2 Buy
10/09/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.2 1.26 Hold PB1.2x CY19
10/09/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.2 1.29 Hold
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.2 1.9 Buy
10/09/19 DMG & Partners SGX 8.4 8.1 Neutral PER23x FY20
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.92 4.34 Buy
10/09/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.63 3.89 Hold DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.63 4.4 Buy
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.95 1.46 Buy

The US-China tension is rising rapidly.

https://fortune.com/2019/10/08/china-ai-us-entity-list/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/us-puts-visa-restrictions-on-chinese-officials-over-abuses-of-muslims-in-xinjiang.html

The US is increasing tension with China now.  There won't be any good outcome for the October trade talk on 10 October because the US has added 28 Chinese firms to its entity list and banned some Chinese officials to the US.

This October will be a volatile month because there will be a trade talk on 10 October, Brexit on 31 October and FED interest rate on 31 October.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.3 0.34 Neutral
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral DCF
03/19/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral
07/16/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.28 0.27 Neutral DCF
08/29/19 Lim & Tan Avi-Tech 0.27 0 Buy
09/10/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.31 0.31 Neutral DCF
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.34 0.31 Neutral

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 Jefferies Ascendas India Trust 1.08 1.2 Buy
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.08 1.25 Buy DDM
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.13 1.25 Buy
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.27 1.4 Buy DDM
07/29/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.42 1.55 Buy

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas Hospitality Trust 0.835 0.98 Buy DCF
07/04/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas Hospitality Trust 1.04 1.21 Buy Pegged to ART

Stock calls for 8 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.34 0.31 Neutral
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.675 0.82 Buy
10/08/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.066 0.08 Neutral
10/08/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 5.91 8.41 Add
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 5.91 7.3 Buy
10/08/19 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 1.9 2.2 Buy
10/08/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.08 2.83 Add Sum of parts
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.44 0.56 Buy
10/08/19 Kim Eng ST Engineering 3.91 4.5 Buy DCF
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.615 0.61 Neutral
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Venture 15.42 16.3 Buy

Monday, October 7, 2019

ART - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 OCBC ART 1.1 1.18 Buy
01/10/19 CIMB ART 1.1 1.13 Hold DDM
01/11/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.11 1.25 Buy
01/30/19 OCBC ART 1.19 1.25 Buy
01/30/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.19 1.35 Buy DCF
03/05/19 OCBC ART 1.14 1.25 Buy
03/05/19 CIMB ART 1.14 1.15 Hold
03/29/19 Lim & Tan ART 1.18 0 Hold BV
04/09/19 Phillip ART 1.18 1.36 Buy DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.2 1.46 Buy DDM
04/15/19 OCBC ART 1.2 1.25 Hold
05/02/19 OCBC ART 1.2 1.25 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.2 1.46 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.2 1.35 Buy DCF
05/06/19 Phillip ART 1.21 1.36 Buy DDM
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.27 1.46 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Buy
06/25/19 OCBC ART 1.3 1.25 Hold
07/04/19 OCBC ART 1.28 1.31 Hold
07/04/19 CIMB ART 1.28 1.15 Hold DDM
07/04/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.28 1.46 Buy
07/05/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Accumulate DDM
07/31/19 CIMB ART 1.3 1.31 Hold DDM
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.3 1.54 Buy
07/31/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.3 1.45 Buy
08/02/19 DIR ART 1.32 1.34 Outperform
08/02/19 Kim Eng ART 1.32 1.3 Hold
08/02/19 Phillip ART 1.32 1.36 Accumulate DDM
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.3 1.54 Buy
09/24/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Accumulate

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.87 1.15 Buy
07/16/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.885 1.15 Buy
08/01/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.885 1.21 Buy DDM
10/02/19 Amfrasers ARA Hospitality 0.87 0.96 Outperform DDM

APTV - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 Phillip APTV 0.13 0.14 Accumulate
05/16/19 Phillip APTV 0.178 0.16 Reduce EV/Ebitda11x
08/19/19 Phillip APTV 0.17 0.165 Neutral EV/Ebitda9.5x

Stock calls for 7 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/07/19 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.08 3.4 Buy
10/07/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.4 0.43 Neutral DCF
10/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.9 1.01 Buy DCF
10/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.06 2.22 Hold
10/07/19 CIMB Starhill 0.74 0.75 Hold DDM

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1767

Today, Friday, October 04 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 1767 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 855


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

HK protestors must understand the consequences of rioting.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-metro-system-remain-010856466.html

There will be consequences of rioting.  Just look at France's yellow vest protests.

More than 24 yellow vests lost their eyes.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/14/europe/france-bastille-day-injured-yellow-vests-intl/index.html

11 were killed during the yellow vest protests.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-yellow-vest-protests-complete-5-months/1455001

Thousands got injured too.

The US government is fudging its employment data again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-September-2019-in-one-chart.html

The US unemployment rate drops to 3.5%.  Can you believe that?

Let's suss out the devil!

The PMI employment index contracted in August.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

The PMI employment index contracted in September again.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/ism-pmi-declined-to-478-in-september.html

The latest ADP private payrolls were slowing down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/adp-jobs-report-private-payrolls-grow-but-hiring-slows.html

I really cannot find anything positive to support these euphoric employment data.

What's the point of publishing overly optimistic figures but these figures will be revised down by a few hundred thousands later?

The US is always using this dirty trick to prop up the stock markets.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-was-caught-red-handed-for.html

Friday, October 4, 2019

Hong Kong anti-mask ban will be in effect on 5 October 2019.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-protests-ban-face-mask-law-carrie-lam-police-11969660

The HK anti-mask ban will be in effect on 5 October 2019.  This is an effective government action as shown in the yellow vest protest in France which had implemented this ban.  However, the HK rioters will be repulsive against this ban.

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/12/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.5 0.72 Buy
02/12/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.5 0.56 Hold
03/01/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.57 0.72 Buy DCF
03/01/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.57 0.7 Buy PER12x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.615 0.72 Buy RNAV
05/07/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.555 0.72 Buy
05/14/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.545 0.67 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.58 Hold PER10x
06/03/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.5 0.65 Buy DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.5 0.67 Buy
06/07/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.51 0.67 Add
07/15/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.545 0.65 Buy DCF
08/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.525 0.65 Buy DCF
08/06/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.48 Hold PER10x FY20
08/08/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.515 0.58 Buy DCF
08/13/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.51 0.6 Add PER10x FY20
09/12/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.495 0.65 Buy

Amara - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/05/19 DMG & Partners Amara 0.46 0.88 Buy RNAV (35% discount)

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/25/19 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy DDM
04/25/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.4 1.5 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.5 Buy DCF
07/25/19 Lim & Tan AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.47 0 Hold
07/26/19 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.47 1.6 Buy DDM

Stock calls for 4 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/04/19 Lim & Tan A-Reit 3.08 0 Hold
10/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.04 2.3 Buy
10/04/19 CIMB China Sunsine 1.1 1.1 Hold
10/04/19 phillip DBS 24.57 27.6 Accumulate
10/04/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.6 1.7 Hold
10/04/19 phillip OCBC 10.71 12.32 Accumulate
10/04/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.54 0.59 Buy
10/04/19 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.9 2.15 Buy
10/04/19 phillip UOB 25.33 28.6 Accumulate

Thursday, October 3, 2019

AEM - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 Kim Eng AEM 0.905 1.21 Buy PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20
02/26/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.05 1.24 Buy PB2.8x FY19/20
02/26/19 CIMB AEM 1.05 1.11 Hold PER10x FY20
04/26/19 CIMB AEM 1.16 1.21 Hold PER10x FY20
05/09/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.05 1.4 Buy PB3.1x FY19/20
06/11/19 Kim Eng AEM 0.945 1.4 Buy PB3.1x FY19/20
07/18/19 CIMB AEM 1.04 1.23 Add PER10x FY20
07/29/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.22 1.4 Buy PB3x FY19/20
08/14/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.09 1.4 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.19 1.5 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g
10/03/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.12 1.5 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/15/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.55 0.61 Hold
02/19/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.565 0.61 Buy
04/04/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.59 0.72 Buy
05/31/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.585 0.7 Buy
08/16/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.535 0.67 Outperform DDM