| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/23/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.11 | 1.16 | Accumulate | |
| 02/20/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.3 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/26/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.02 | Neutral | DCF |
| 02/26/19 | OCBC | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.25 | Buy | |
| 02/26/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19 |
| 02/26/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
| 04/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.07 | 1.02 | Neutral | |
| 05/02/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.08 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
| 05/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.08 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 05/14/19 | Kim Eng | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.13 | Hold | DCF |
| 06/12/19 | CIMB | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.1 | Hold | |
| 07/30/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.27 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.02 | Neutral | |
| 07/30/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 07/31/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.04 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
| 07/31/19 | Kim Eng | Raffles Medical | 1.04 | 1.05 | Hold | DCF |
| 07/31/19 | OCBC | Raffles Medical | 1.04 | 1.06 | Hold | |
| 10/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.02 | Neutral | DCF |
| 10/30/19 | CIMB | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.16 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 10/30/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.27 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/30/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.12 | Hold | |
| 11/05/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.05 | Neutral | DCF |
| 11/05/19 | Kim Eng | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.07 | Hold | DCF |
| 11/05/19 | OCBC | Raffles Medical | 1 | 1.02 | Hold | |
| 02/25/20 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 0.96 | Neutral | DCF |
| 02/25/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.21 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/25/20 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.1 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 02/25/20 | Kim Eng | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.06 | Hold | DCF |
| 02/25/20 | CIMB | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.16 | Add | |
| 02/26/20 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.01 | 0.99 | Neutral | DCF |
Monday, March 9, 2020
Raffles Medical - Stock calls
Propnex - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/27/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.565 | 0.66 | Buy | |
| 04/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.595 | 0.66 | Buy | |
| 05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.505 | 0.6 | Buy | DCF, PER10x FY19 |
| 06/03/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.5 | 0.63 | Buy | DCF |
| 06/07/19 | CIMB | Propnex | 0.49 | 0.64 | Add | |
| 08/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.505 | 0.5 | Hold | |
| 08/19/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.5 | 0.59 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/11/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.49 | 0.59 | Buy | |
| 10/14/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.49 | 0.56 | Buy | PER12x FY20 |
| 11/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.525 | 0.62 | Buy | PER12x FY20 |
| 11/18/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.515 | 0.59 | Buy | DCF |
| 11/25/19 | CIMB | Propnex | 0.515 | 0.68 | Add | |
| 02/21/20 | Lim & Tan | Propnex | 0.53 | 0.68 | Buy | |
| 02/28/20 | CIMB | Propnex | 0.555 | 0.7 | Add | DCF |
| 02/28/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.555 | 0.68 | Buy | |
| 03/02/20 | phillip | Propnex | 0.545 | 0.7 | Buy | DCF |
| 03/06/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.555 | 0.68 | Buy |
Stock calls for 9 March 2020
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 03/09/20 | Citibank | DBS | 23 | 17.5 | Sell | |
| 03/09/20 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.97 | 3.35 | Buy | |
| 03/09/20 | DMG & Partners | Frencken | 0.83 | 1.05 | Buy | DCF |
| 03/09/20 | Citibank | OCBC | 10.21 | 8.85 | Sell | |
| 03/09/20 | UOB Kay Hian | SPH | 1.89 | 2.25 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 03/09/20 | Citibank | UOB | 23.2 | 19.3 | Sell |
Saturday, March 7, 2020
We've correctly predicted the end of a good US period by March 2020. So what's next?
We've correctly predicted the end of a good US period by March 2020 as stated in our previous post in Dec 2019.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html
Some people said we got lucky. Some said it was just a fluke. However, have you ever thought about why the lady's luck stood on our side instead of yours? This is because we analyze better than others. This also explains the rationale behind our motto: We are not always right but we are also seldom wrong.
Some people in the US must have also reached the same conclusion as us and they tried to capitalize on it by planting the covid-19 virus in Wuhan. The US CDC had not come out to explain how the US had the 1st (H38) and 2nd-generation (H3) covid-19 viruses but these 2 earlier generations were not found in Wuhan. The US has all the 5 generations of covid-19 cases now. No wonder Japan and Russia alleged that covid-19 originated in the US.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/japan-and-russia-alleged-that-covid-19.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/japan-and-russia-alleged-that-covid-19.html
Thus, the US recession constellation really aligns with our prediction because the US invisible hand is at work.
So what's gonna happen next after Q1 2020? This is the coveted answer that many people want to know.
The 4 US interest rates (1orr, Effr, Ioer and on rrp) dropped immediately after the US FED cut the rates to 1%-1.25%. The 4 US interest rates range from 1 to 1.1% now. The FED cut also caused the risk-free rate (10-year yield) to fall to 0.74%.
I've discovered something about the repo market (on rrp) when I looked at it in details.
The US FED can fulfill almost all the 1-day and 3-day repo orders but only partial fulfillment for 14-day repo orders.
1-day repo order:
3-day repo order:
14-day repo order:
What is on rrp? It is a 1-day FED debt (backed up by US treasury & MBS) that investors can buy in the repo market and the FED will buy back the debt the next day by paying 1% interest. Basically, this is a risk-free 1-day investment with a 1% return. In other words, you buy the 1-day FED debt today and wake up tomorrow with a 1% return.
Why can't the FED fulfill all the orders?
Yes, there are overwhelming investors in the repo market but the fundamental problem is the US FED doesn't have enough US treasury and Mortgage-backed securities) to back up the 1-day debt that it is selling in the repo market. In a nutshell, the US FED is short of USD to buy the treasury and MBS while the treasury department is flushed with USD because the investors are buying a lot of US treasuries in turbulence times like now since the treasuries are considered haven assets.
With the low-interest rates and huge money supply in the US treasury, the USD is bound to depreciate and it is depreciating as we speak.
As monies flow from a low-interest rate yielding country to a high-interest rate yielding country, there will be a capital flight in the US when other countries do not follow the US in cutting rates because investors will search for higher yields outside of the US. Subsequently, the US will need to prevent such a phenomenon from happening by getting the US credit rating firms to downgrade the creditworthiness of other countries and companies.
Generally speaking, a lower credit rating will impose a higher financial cost (higher interest rate) on future funding. Thus, other countries will have to cut their interest rates to neutralize the higher financial costs imposed on their lower credit ratings to stimulate their own economies and also shield their companies from the financial impacts.
This is the US invisible hand at work again.
Notwithstanding the US factor, many firms and countries will also have their credit ratings reduced because of direct and indirect financial losses due to the covid-19 outbreak and we are seeing many GDP downgrades right now.
Thus, I see massive credit rating downgrades happening in Q2 2020 at the earliest or Q3 2020 at the latest. If the US cut its rates to Zero, the repo market would be wiped out because it was the easiest way to make money. The repo market is a US$4T market and investors can make at least US$40B risk-free return with just a 1% interest rate now.
https://www.icmagroup.org/Regulatory-Policy-and-Market-Practice/repo-and-collateral-markets/icma-ercc-publications/frequently-asked-questions-on-repo/4-how-big-is-the-repo-market/
It will be very difficult to make a decent return for the banks and investors when the interest rate is at Zero or below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html
Some people said we got lucky. Some said it was just a fluke. However, have you ever thought about why the lady's luck stood on our side instead of yours? This is because we analyze better than others. This also explains the rationale behind our motto: We are not always right but we are also seldom wrong.
Some people in the US must have also reached the same conclusion as us and they tried to capitalize on it by planting the covid-19 virus in Wuhan. The US CDC had not come out to explain how the US had the 1st (H38) and 2nd-generation (H3) covid-19 viruses but these 2 earlier generations were not found in Wuhan. The US has all the 5 generations of covid-19 cases now. No wonder Japan and Russia alleged that covid-19 originated in the US.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/japan-and-russia-alleged-that-covid-19.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/japan-and-russia-alleged-that-covid-19.html
Thus, the US recession constellation really aligns with our prediction because the US invisible hand is at work.
So what's gonna happen next after Q1 2020? This is the coveted answer that many people want to know.
The 4 US interest rates (1orr, Effr, Ioer and on rrp) dropped immediately after the US FED cut the rates to 1%-1.25%. The 4 US interest rates range from 1 to 1.1% now. The FED cut also caused the risk-free rate (10-year yield) to fall to 0.74%.
The US FED can fulfill almost all the 1-day and 3-day repo orders but only partial fulfillment for 14-day repo orders.
1-day repo order:
14-day repo order:
What is on rrp? It is a 1-day FED debt (backed up by US treasury & MBS) that investors can buy in the repo market and the FED will buy back the debt the next day by paying 1% interest. Basically, this is a risk-free 1-day investment with a 1% return. In other words, you buy the 1-day FED debt today and wake up tomorrow with a 1% return.
Why can't the FED fulfill all the orders?
Yes, there are overwhelming investors in the repo market but the fundamental problem is the US FED doesn't have enough US treasury and Mortgage-backed securities) to back up the 1-day debt that it is selling in the repo market. In a nutshell, the US FED is short of USD to buy the treasury and MBS while the treasury department is flushed with USD because the investors are buying a lot of US treasuries in turbulence times like now since the treasuries are considered haven assets.
With the low-interest rates and huge money supply in the US treasury, the USD is bound to depreciate and it is depreciating as we speak.
As monies flow from a low-interest rate yielding country to a high-interest rate yielding country, there will be a capital flight in the US when other countries do not follow the US in cutting rates because investors will search for higher yields outside of the US. Subsequently, the US will need to prevent such a phenomenon from happening by getting the US credit rating firms to downgrade the creditworthiness of other countries and companies.
Generally speaking, a lower credit rating will impose a higher financial cost (higher interest rate) on future funding. Thus, other countries will have to cut their interest rates to neutralize the higher financial costs imposed on their lower credit ratings to stimulate their own economies and also shield their companies from the financial impacts.
This is the US invisible hand at work again.
Notwithstanding the US factor, many firms and countries will also have their credit ratings reduced because of direct and indirect financial losses due to the covid-19 outbreak and we are seeing many GDP downgrades right now.
Thus, I see massive credit rating downgrades happening in Q2 2020 at the earliest or Q3 2020 at the latest. If the US cut its rates to Zero, the repo market would be wiped out because it was the easiest way to make money. The repo market is a US$4T market and investors can make at least US$40B risk-free return with just a 1% interest rate now.
https://www.icmagroup.org/Regulatory-Policy-and-Market-Practice/repo-and-collateral-markets/icma-ercc-publications/frequently-asked-questions-on-repo/4-how-big-is-the-repo-market/
It will be very difficult to make a decent return for the banks and investors when the interest rate is at Zero or below.
Baltic dry index - 617
Today, Friday, March 06 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 18 points, reaching 617 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
=======================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
Friday, March 6, 2020
The US CDC is trying to fudge the covid-19 statistics.
https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-coverup-is-america-hiding-the-real-scale-of-outbreak/
The US CDC has removed the covid-19 statistics in the US. It is not revealing the number of people being tested and the individual cases in every city and state.
The US CDC has removed the covid-19 statistics in the US. It is not revealing the number of people being tested and the individual cases in every city and state.
Prime US Reit - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 11/05/19 | DBS Vickers | Prime US Reit | 0.94 | 1.05 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/13/20 | Kim Eng | Prime US Reit | 1.02 | 1.1 | Buy | DDM |
| 03/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Prime US Reit | 0.995 | 1.05 | Buy | DCF |
Perennial Reit - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/14/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.645 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 04/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.65 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 05/13/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.64 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 02/21/20 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.52 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
Penguin - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 04/26/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.45 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.44 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
| 05/27/19 | CIMB | Penguin | 0.445 | 0.72 | Add | PB1x FY19 |
| 08/07/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.495 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
| 10/09/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Penguin | 0.62 | 0.85 | Buy | PER7.6x FY2020 |
| 11/08/19 | CIMB | Penguin | 0.66 | 0.81 | Add | PB1x FY20 |
| 11/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Penguin | 0.66 | 0.85 | Buy | |
| 11/11/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.7 | 0.93 | Buy | PER5x FY20 (ex-cash) |
| 12/06/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Penguin | 0.725 | 0.85 | Buy | |
| 02/26/20 | CIMB | Penguin | 0.71 | 0.82 | Add | PB1x FY20 |
| 02/26/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Penguin | 0.71 | 0.85 | Buy | |
| 02/27/20 | phillip | Penguin | 0.675 | 0.88 | Buy | PER5x FY20 (ex-cash) |
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