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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/04/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial1.871.8Hold
04/24/19OCBCMapletree Commercial1.841.85Hold
04/25/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.892BuyDCF
05/28/19CIMBMapletree Commercial1.932.03Add
06/21/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.042.22BuyDDM
07/10/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.052.03Add
07/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.072.25BuyDCF
07/26/19OCBCMapletree Commercial2.11.89Sell
07/26/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.12.22Buy
07/26/19Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.10Hold
07/29/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.072.1HoldDDM
08/22/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.082.24Add
08/28/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.122.22Buy
09/09/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.242.39BuyDCF
09/27/19Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.360Hold
09/30/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM
09/30/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.342.1Hold
09/30/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM
10/16/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.342.38HoldDDM, Buy @ $2.16
10/16/19CIMBMapletree Commercial2.342.39HoldDDM
10/16/19OCBCMapletree Commercial2.342.28Hold
10/16/19Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.342.35HoldDDM
11/08/19DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.392.6BuyDCF
01/23/20Kim EngMapletree Commercial2.442.45HoldDDM
01/24/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial2.432.6Buy
01/24/20Lim & TanMapletree Commercial2.430Hold
02/03/20OCBCMapletree Commercial2.352.44Hold
03/06/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial2.32.62BuyDDM
03/18/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.772.6Buy
04/02/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.751.9Buy
04/23/20Lim & TanMapletree Commercial1.770Take Profit
04/24/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Commercial1.762.02BuyDDM
04/27/20Kim EngMapletree Commercial1.762.15BuyDDM

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/25/19Lim & TanManulife US Reit0.870Hold
04/26/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8650.94BuyDDM
04/26/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8650.92Buy
04/26/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651BuyDDM
04/30/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.880.97BuyDDM
05/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.870.96BuyDDM
05/29/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.861BuyDDM
06/06/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8450.96Buy
06/17/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.871BuyDDM
06/25/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651Buy
07/04/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.880.96Buy
07/12/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8750.98BuyDDM
08/15/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.890.98outperform
08/15/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.890.98BuyDDM
08/19/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.891BuyDDM
08/23/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8951.1BuyDCF
09/11/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.9150.98Buy
09/20/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.911.05BuyDDM
09/20/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.911BuyDDM
09/20/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.911.01outperform
10/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8951Buy
10/11/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.9051.1BuyDCF
11/01/19CIMBManulife US Reit0.9151.12AddDDM
11/05/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.921BuyDDM
11/05/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.921.1Buy
11/05/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.921.05Buy
12/02/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.9651.03outperform
12/10/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.021Buy
12/13/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit11.1BuyDDM
01/08/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.991.1Buy
02/06/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.041.12BuyDDM
02/06/20DBS VickersManulife US Reit1.041.15BuyDCF
02/06/20Lim & TanManulife US Reit1.040Hold
02/07/20CIMBManulife US Reit1.071.13AddDDM
02/07/20Kim EngManulife US Reit1.071.15BuyDDM
02/11/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit1.051.11Neutral
03/10/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.981.11Neutral
03/20/20DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.5651.15Buy
03/20/20CIMBManulife US Reit0.5651.15Add
03/25/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.70.88BuyDDM
04/07/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.6650.88Buy
05/11/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.7050.9BuyDDM
05/11/20CIMBManulife US Reit0.7051.05Add

Stock calls for 26 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/26/20phillipComfortdelgro1.541.5NeutralDCF
05/26/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.541.45NeutralDCF
05/26/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.541.5HoldPER15x FY20/21
05/26/20Lim & TanComfortdelgro1.540Hold
05/26/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.541.98BuyDCF
05/26/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.541.5Hold
05/26/20UOB Kay HianElite ComReit0.660.88BuyDDM
05/26/20CIMBFirst Resources1.281.8Buy
05/26/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.281.85BuyPER18x FY20
05/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.281.25NeutralPER14x FY20
05/26/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.281.65Buy
05/26/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.281.7BuyDCF
05/26/20UOB Kay HianRiverstone1.872.53BuyPER23.1x FY20
05/26/20DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.230.25NeutralPER9.8x FY21

Monday, May 25, 2020

The US debt market is going to implode!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

As stated previously, the CMBS market is in a precarious situation.

The MBS market is also in the same situation as CMBS because the existing home sales figure is also falling.


Recently, the car rental giant, Hertz, has filed for bankruptcy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/business/hertz-bankruptcy/index.html

This car rental firm bankruptcy has also brought out the car debt market issue into the open.  The US used car prices are falling and many car derivative products (car debts) created by the banks and financial firms are also in a big trouble as there will be a severe mark down in the used car values.

When the US debt market starts to implode, the US economy will explode because its economic growth is based on debts.  An implosion will cause a big explosion!

Let's watch how this will pan out.

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Baltic dry index - 494

Today, Thursday, May 21 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 17 points, reaching 494 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 318


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

F22 and F35 are no longer stealth anymore.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26971/Venezuelan_Air_Defence_s_Chinese_made_Radar_Detects_US_F_22_Stealth_Jet#.XsjEyRMzaqA

China's long-range radar JY-27 had proven to be able to detect F22 in Venezuela and the F22 pilot turned back after getting a warning from Venezuela.

JY-27 is not the most recent radar and China has upgraded it to JY-27 3D which is more superior.  Therefore, it is unwise to pay so much for F35 as F22 is more superior than F35 since F22 is not for sale.  The US always keeps the best (F22) for itself.

What will happen to SG if Malaysia gets the JY-27 3D?  All SG F35 will become useless as Malaysia will know all our F35 movements?

Friday, May 22, 2020

Lippo Malls - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/21/20CIMBLippo Malls0.2350.24HoldDDM

Lian Beng - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/14/20Lim & TanLian Beng0.5250Buy

Lendlease Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
10/15/19DIRLendlease Reit0.941.01outperform
12/06/19DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.921.05BuyDCF
02/12/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.911.05Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.480.94Buy
04/02/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.520.94Buy
05/08/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.5750.85Buy

Stock calls for 22 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/22/20UOB Kay HianBRC Asia1.151.52Buy
05/22/20DBS VickersDelfi0.831.08BuyPER18x FY20/21
05/22/20CIMBRiverstone1.942.5Add
05/22/20DBS VickersSingtel2.683.22BuySum of parts
05/22/20DBS VickersSPH1.561.57Hold

US CMBS is in a precarious situation now! - Part 2

Why did I say that CMBS was in a precarious situation?

The CMBX index chart showed that the CMBS prices have been falling since the beginning of 2020.  This pushed the US FED to buy the CMBS as part of the pandemic package because some big banks were stuck with unsellable CMBS in their possessions.  These unsellable CMBS will weigh on the cashflow since the banks cannot outsource their risks by selling them to retail investors.  Many insurance companies also possess such CMBS that they cannot sell to potential clients.

The US FED purchases insofar have not yielded any significant result because the commercial real estate transactions have continued to fall.  Ultimately, these declining transactions will impact the physical real estate prices and subsequently affect the CMBS prices.  In the end, the banks and insurance companies will have to shoulder the CMBS losses.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now.html

Thursday, May 21, 2020

US CMBS is in a precarious situation now!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-real-estate-transactions-u-165441099.html

The US commercial real estate transactions have plunged by 71% and this is a precursor sign that the prices will follow suit.  A declining volume usually causes the price to fall in the future because of the mismatch in buyer-seller expectations.

What's the repercussion?

Well, the collapse in prices will affect the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) which the FED has just bought to salvage the US economy.  This will have a multiplier effect on the wider economy and also affect the banking industry.

Let's see how the real situation will play out.


KSH - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/17/19OCBCKSH0.5350.81Buy
05/31/19Lim & TanKSH0.450Buy
06/03/19OCBCKSH0.450Cease coverage
11/12/19Lim & TanKSH0.4650Buy
01/28/20Lim & TanKSH0.4150Buy on weakness
04/06/20Lim & TanKSH0.290Hold

Koufu - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/08/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.8050.95Buy
05/07/19DBS VickersKoufu0.770.8HoldPER17x FY19
05/09/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.750.95Buy
06/13/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.6750.95Buy
06/28/19DBS VickersKoufu0.6750.85BuyPER17x FY19
07/03/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
08/08/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.95Buy
08/08/19DBS VickersKoufu0.710.88BuyPER17x FY20
10/01/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
10/01/19DBS VickersKoufu0.720.88Buy
11/05/19DBS VickersKoufu0.7550.88BuyPER17x FY20
11/06/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.770.95Buy
12/11/19SAC CapitalKoufu0.7650.87Buy
01/06/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7750.88Buy
02/12/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.7250.83Buy
02/13/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7350.84BuyPER17x FY20
03/02/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7050.84BuyPER17x FY20
03/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.81Buy
03/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.710Hold
04/22/20DBS VickersKoufu0.6150.68Hold
04/24/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.60.69Buy

Kimly - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/05/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.240.24Neutral
05/09/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2450.23NeutralDCF
06/06/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.230.23Neutral
08/13/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2350.23NeutralDCF
10/15/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.23Neutral
11/28/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.240.24NeutralDCF
12/11/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2450.24Neutral

Stock calls for 21 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/21/20DMG & PartnersIreit0.680.83BuyDDM
05/21/20UOB Kay HianSPH1.51.52HoldSum of parts, Buy @ $1.30
05/21/20Lim & TanSPH1.50Hold
05/21/20AmfrasersUMS0.9150.74Underperform

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/01/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.291.35BuyDDM
04/18/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.241.12NeutralDDM
04/18/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.241.38BuyDCF
04/18/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.240Hold
04/24/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.211.37BuyDDM
04/24/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.211.4BuyDCF
04/25/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.231.34AddDDM
05/30/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.211.37Buy
07/04/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.281.12Neutral
07/16/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.261.41AddDDM
07/16/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.2NeutralDDM
07/16/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.261.37Buy
07/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
07/16/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.260Hold
08/06/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.21.45Buy
08/27/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.21HoldBuy @ $1.1
10/02/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
10/02/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.23NeutralDDM
10/17/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.241.35AddDDM
10/17/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.2HoldDDM, Buy @ $1.1
10/17/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.240Hold
12/04/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.231.45Buy
12/10/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.251.23Neutral
01/24/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.271.45BuyDCF
01/24/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.271.38Add
02/04/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.211.45Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit0.961.45Buy
04/13/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit0.951.3Buy
04/23/20CIMBKeppel Reit0.991.2AddDDM
04/23/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit0.991.23Neutral
04/24/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.040Buy on weakness
05/04/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.061.07NeutralDDM

Keppel Pacific - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/03/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.7050.8Buy
06/06/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.740.8Buy
06/17/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.750.9BuyDCF
07/12/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.790.88BuyDDM
07/18/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.820.9Buy
09/06/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.740.88BuyDDM
09/09/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.750.9Buy
10/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.760.9BuyDCF
10/16/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.760.88BuyDDM
12/10/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7750.88Buy
01/22/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7650.88BuyDDM
01/24/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.7850.9BuyDCF
03/20/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.3950.9Buy
04/14/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.540.76BuyDDM

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.480.58BuyDDM
07/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.5050.58BuyDDM
10/15/19DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.5450.58Buy
01/22/20DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.550.58BuyDDM
04/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Infrastructure0.4750Buy
04/22/20DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.480.54BuyDDM
04/24/20Credit SuisseKeppel Infrastructure0.490.57Outperform

Stock calls for 20 May 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/20/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro1.561.82Buy
05/20/20phillipPropnex0.4950.6Buy
05/20/20DMG & PartnersSembcorp Industries1.552BuySum of parts
05/20/20DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.2450.24NeutralDCF
05/20/20UOB Kay HianSunpower0.4450.88Buy
05/20/20OCBCThai Beverage0.660.71Hold

China has not shown its hand yet in the fight against the US.

China can bludgeon the US so severely that the US cannot stand on its feet but China is not doing it now.

Why did I say that?

China can also do what the US did to Huawei but on a much larger scale.  China can announce that any foreign company, using China's rare earth materials, cannot export its rare earth materials and products to the USA.  This will cripple the US technology and military defence industries immediately since rare earth materials are used abundantly in batteries, missiles, etc.  Consequently, those foreign companies flouting China's announcement will risk losing access to China's market and get slapped with sanctions.  Thus, things can really get ugly if China is as belligerent and unreasonable as the US.

China can easily force the US to the negotiating table since the US cannot replace the rare earth materials from China immediately.  It will take a few years for the US to cut off from China and this can buy time for the US & China to decouple from each other.

Is this the new world that we're all looking forward to?

Luckin is finished! Goodbye forever!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luckin-stock-faces-wipeout-rush-052759754.html

Luckin will be delisted soon as demanded by Nasdaq.

We had warned about Luckin during its IPO.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html

Everything had played out as we had predicted.  Luckin was a fraud and short-sellers targeted this company after its IPO just as we had expected.  Those who bought into this company had to go for a class-action suit to seek their financial justice.  However, Luckin is a loss-making company and these investors will find it difficult to recoup their investments.  Their only consolation is to shut down this fraudulent company with the class-action suit so that it will never be able to con anyone again.