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Saturday, May 7, 2022

Stock calls for 6 May 2022

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

05/06/22

DBS Vickers

AEM

4.84

6.04

Buy


05/06/22

Lim & Tan

AEM

4.84

6.24

Buy


05/06/22

CIMB

ART

1.16

1.24

Add


05/06/22

OCBC

ART

1.16

1.3

Buy


05/06/22

DBS Vickers

Frasers Logistics

1.45

1.85

Buy


05/06/22

UOB Kay Hian

Japfa

0.605

0.63

Hold

Sum of parts, PER9.1x FY22, Buy @ $0.56

05/06/22

UOB Kay Hian

Lendlease Reit

0.81

1.05

Buy

DDM

05/06/22

DBS Vickers

OCBC

12.35

15

Buy


05/06/22

Lim & Tan

SIA Engineering

2.66

2.82

Neutral


Friday, May 6, 2022

Will the US be heading for a soft or hard landing? - Part 2

It is inevitable that the US will encounter a hard landing with its latest 50bp rate hike because the US Fed is way behind the inflation curve.

The latest job openings and quits statistics showed a huge mismatch in the labour market and this would cause the employment cost to spike as shown below.  The sticky wage model shows that salary increment is a long-term inflation issue because it is very difficult to reduce after an increment.


Subsequently, elevated inflation will cause a recession when the sky-high inflation is not contained.  According to the modified Taylor rule calculation, the fed fund rate should be above 10% to contain the 8.5% inflation.  However, the fed fund rate won't even exceed 3% by the end of 2022 at the current pace of rate hikes.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/05/will-us-be-heading-for-soft-or-hard.html

Conversely, the UK has a 7% inflation and it has just hiked its rate to 1% which is a 13-year high.  Furthermore, the UK is also projecting a 10% inflation for the coming months which is even higher than the US when the UK has a lower inflation rate than the US (8.5%) now.

Therefore, it is highly likely that the US will encounter a hard landing as stated by the former NY Fed chief.

SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

07/13/21

Lim & Tan

SPH Reit

0.925

1.03

Accumulate


07/16/21

CIMB

SPH Reit

0.945

1.06

Add


07/16/21

Kim Eng

SPH Reit

0.945

0.8

Hold

DDM

08/03/21

DBS Vickers

SPH Reit

0.905

0.92

Hold

DCF

08/03/21

Lim & Tan

SPH Reit

0.905

0

Hold


08/27/21

CIMB

SPH Reit

0.89

1.04

Add

DDM

08/27/21

OCBC

SPH Reit

0.89

0.92

Hold


10/05/21

DBS Vickers

SPH Reit

0.93

0.92

Hold


10/05/21

Lim & Tan

SPH Reit

0.93

0.95

Hold


10/06/21

CIMB

SPH Reit

0.94

1.03

Add

DDM

01/10/22

CIMB

SPH Reit

0.98

1.03

Add

DDM

01/10/22

DBS Vickers

SPH Reit

0.98

0.92

Hold


01/11/22

Lim & Tan

SPH Reit

0.965

0

Neutral


01/12/22

Kim Eng

SPH Reit

0.975

0.95

Hold


01/12/22

OCBC

SPH Reit

0.975

0.95

Hold


04/04/22

CIMB

SPH Reit

0.97

0.95

Hold


04/04/22

DBS Vickers

SPH Reit

0.97

0.964

Hold


04/04/22

Kim Eng

SPH Reit

0.97

0.95

Hold


04/04/22

Lim & Tan

SPH Reit

0.97

0.96

Hold


SPH - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

06/18/21

CIMB

SPH

1.83

2.19

Add

PB

07/21/21

Lim & Tan

SPH

1.8

0

Accumulate


07/21/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

1.8

2

Buy

Sum of parts

08/03/21

CIMB

SPH

1.88

2.19

Buy

Sum of parts

08/03/21

DBS Vickers

SPH

1.88

2.1

Accept offer

offer price $2.099

08/03/21

Lim & Tan

SPH

1.88

0

Accept offer

offer price $2.099

08/05/21

OCBC

SPH

1.92

1.92

Hold


08/05/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

1.92

2.1

Buy

Sum of parts (5% disc)

10/06/21

Lim & Tan

SPH

1.98

0

Hold


10/07/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

1.98

2.1

Accept offer

Sum of parts

11/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

2.12

2.15

Accept offer


11/11/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

2.16

2.35

Accept offer

offer price $2.35

11/16/21

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

2.33

2.4

Accept offer


12/23/21

Lim & Tan

SPH

2.34

0

Accept offer

Accept Cuscaden & Reject Keppel

02/10/22

CIMB

SPH

2.33

2.11

Hold


02/11/22

DBS Vickers

SPH

2.33

2.1

Hold


03/24/22

UOB Kay Hian

SPH

2.35

2.4

Accept offer