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Friday, June 14, 2019

The true picture of US economy.

We will use the economic process to analyze the US GDP situation.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:
CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

CPI: Stagnant ( This showed that there is no overwhelming demand to support the US economy and the inventory rundown must continue to allow CPI to increase.  Thus, there is a supply issue in the US which means that weak economic growth is expected in the future.)

As the US uses interest rates to manage inflation, we will use the 3m-10y yield spread to gauge the situation.  This is not applicable to Singapore because we use the currency exchange rate to manage our inflation.
3-month Libor vs US 10-year yield spread:
The 10-year yield is below the 3-month Libor now which depicts a death cross occurrence (negative signal for technical analysis).  Fundamentally speaking, this means there is a shortage of money supply which will curb business investments with the ensuing outcome of slower economic growth.

The US PMI has declined in May 2019.

The decline in May inventories under the PMI corroborated the aforesaid CPI situation whereby the continual inventories rundown must persist for CPI to rise since there is no overwhelming demand to deplete the inventories.  Without the rundown, the CPI cannot rise to kickstart the change in the economic process.

With the weaknesses in CPI, 3m-10y yield spread and PMI, the next US GDP figure will be weak!

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Pacific Century 0.385 0 Buy

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.183 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.173 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 13 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.05 2.16 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 24.7 30.5 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
06/13/19 CIMB HRnetGroup 0.72 1.01 Add
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.675 0.95 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.8 14.62 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.32 3.58 Buy DCF
06/13/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.32 3.48 Hold Sum of parts
06/13/19 OCBC ST Engineering 4.09 4.38 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 4.09 4.7 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.41 3.9 Buy

Huawei is evoking its patent rights now. Yeah!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-asks-verizon-pay-over-160423853.html

We've stated before that many companies would be infringing Huawei's patents if they want to build 5G technology.  Huawei is evoking its patent rights now in the face of the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/huawei-won-fight-in-europe-against-us.html

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.33 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.3 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.3 0.48 Buy DDM & DCF

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Soochow SSD OUE Lippo HC 0.066 0.088 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/12/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.41 4 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.35 Sell
06/12/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.65 Buy
06/12/19 Lim & Tan CapitaRetail China 1.53 0 Hold
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.55 2.77 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.645 0.67 Hold
06/12/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.625 0.82 Buy DCF
06/12/19 CIMB IHH Healthcare 1.84 2.09 Add Ringgit $6.37 target price
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.835 0.97 Buy
06/12/19 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.02 1.1 Hold
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

President Trump threatens President Xi before G20 Summit.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/11/politics/trump-xi-g20-tariffs-intl-hnk/index.html

It is a stupid move to threaten another big country President.  There won't be a trade deal in the G20 Summit because this will make President Xi look weak.

China has responded with Trump's threat.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-respond-u-insists-073106816.html

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.67 0.85 Add DDM
01/16/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.685 0.79 Buy
01/30/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.695 0.85 Buy DCF
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.82 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.77 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.76 Take Profit Accept offer
04/09/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.85 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.85 Add
05/03/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.85 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.68 0.76 Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.49 0.5 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.49 0.6 Buy DCF
02/04/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.515 0.57 Hold
02/08/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.51 0.6 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.52 0.6 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.51 0.57 Hold
05/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.5 0.57 Hold

OUE - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 OCBC OUE 1.66 2.32 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC OUE 1.79 2.32 Buy

Stock calls for 11 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/11/19 Kim Eng AEM 0.945 1.4 Buy PB3.1x FY19/20
06/11/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.56 1.5 Hold
06/11/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.62 2.06 Buy DDM
06/11/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.31 1.6 Buy
06/11/19 OCBC City Developments 8.97 10.68 Buy
06/11/19 CIMB City Developments 8.97 10.66 Add RNAV (35% discount)
06/11/19 Jefferies City Developments 8.97 12 Buy
06/11/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.29 1.22 Hold PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.64 0.99 Buy PB2x FY20
06/11/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.7 19.74 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
06/11/19 OCBC Yangzijiang 1.4 1.45 Hold

Monday, June 10, 2019

OCBC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 CIMB OCBC 11.1 14 Add PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.03 14.05 Buy
01/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.37 13.82 Buy
01/31/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.95 Hold DDM
02/01/19 phillip OCBC 11.51 13.7 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.49 13.82 Buy
02/13/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.41 10.95 Hold
02/25/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12 Hold PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 13.85 Buy
02/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.39 12.9 Buy GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.73 Hold DDM
02/27/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.2 13 Outperform PB
03/04/19 phillip OCBC 11.1 13.7 Buy
03/07/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.22 10.73 Hold
03/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.05 12 Hold
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.99 13.85 Buy
04/02/19 phillip OCBC 11.21 13.7 Buy
04/02/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.21 12.9 Buy
04/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.72 12 Hold
04/22/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.77 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.78 10.73 Hold
04/24/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.83 14.12 Buy GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19 phillip OCBC 12.04 13.7 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.31 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19 CIMB OCBC 11.31 12 Hold
05/13/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.39 13 Outperform
05/13/19 phillip OCBC 11.39 12.68 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 14.62 Buy GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.09 11.07 Hold
06/03/19 CIMB OCBC 10.57 12.59 Hold
06/06/19 phillip OCBC 10.63 12.7 Accumulate

Netlink - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.765 0.99 Buy DCF
01/02/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.765 0.93 Buy
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.77 0.87 Buy DCF
02/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.785 0.93 Buy DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.79 0.87 Buy DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.79 0.99 Buy
02/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.805 0.92 Buy DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19 OCBC Netlink 0.805 0.9 Buy
03/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.795 0.9 Buy
03/27/19 Phillip Netlink 0.825 0.89 Accumulate DCF
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.83 0.92 Buy
04/01/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy
05/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.825 0.92 Buy DCF
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.82 0.87 Buy
05/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.835 0.95 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.835 0.9 Buy DCF
05/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.835 0.93 Accumulate DCF
05/15/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.835 0.94 Buy DDM
06/03/19 Phillip Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy DCF
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.825 0.9 Buy

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Nera Telecom 0.285 0 Buy

Stock calls for 10 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/10/19 Novus 800Super 0.89 0.9 Accept offer offer $0.90
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.27 1.46 Buy
06/10/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 8.47 9.2 Neutral
06/10/19 DBS Vickers City Developments 8.47 9.5 Hold
06/10/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 8.47 0 Buy
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.71 Buy
06/10/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 6.05 7.33 Buy Sum of parts, Cut from $7.92

Saturday, June 8, 2019

This is what will happen when the US conducts its sea navigation in international water.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-russia-blame-other-near-144834895.html

Without the US, this won't happen at all.  The US Navy likes to conduct Fon in "international water" and cause near collisions with others.

Is international water safer with the US Navy around or more dangerous now?