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Friday, January 31, 2020

WHO declares international emergency over Wuhan virus.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/wuhan-virus-who-international-emergency-declare-12372372?cid=emarsys-cna_20200130_2359_FINAL+CNA+Mon+to+Sat+newsletter+%280740%29_newsletter_31012020_cna&sc_customer=8c11b763-c6a4-4499-a650-cf4c2c3d82d8&sc_src=email&sc_llid=47345&sc_lid=102252522&sc_uid=iU1UgaxgzQ

WHO declares an international emergency over Wuhan virus after we reported the lockdown in Hainan.  Hainan is so far away from Wuhan but it is in lockdown.  This shows that the virus situation is very bad in China.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-real-coronavirus-situation-in-china.html

The real coronavirus situation in China.

The situation is very dire in China now.

I've just checked with my China relative from Hainan.  He told me that Hainan island was in lockdown as MRT and shops were mostly closed.

China has not reached the virus peak period yet and the situation will get worse before it gets better.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

China's coronavirus has mutated.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200130_37/

Japan has detected 3 cases of the new coronavirus without symptoms.

It will be harder to contain the new virus if there is no symptom because normal temperature screening at the customs won't be able to detect sick people.

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.8 Buy DDM
02/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Buy
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.74 0.82 Buy
05/03/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.85 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.77 Hold DCF
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.72 0.77 Hold DCF
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.715 0.77 Hold
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Hold DCF
11/01/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.8 Buy DDM
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.715 0.78 Hold DCF

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
01/21/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.56 Buy
01/21/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.5 Hold DDM
01/21/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 0 Hold
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.5 Neutral
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
04/24/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Neutral DDM
04/24/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.58 Buy
04/24/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Hold DDM
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.51 1.7 Buy
06/26/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.69 Buy
06/26/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.64 Add DDM
06/27/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.66 1.65 Neutral DDM
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.68 1.65 Neutral
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.7 Hold DCF
07/22/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.64 1.7 Hold
10/04/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.6 1.7 Hold DCF
10/23/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.64 1.65 Neutral DDM
10/24/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.76 Hold
10/24/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.71 Add DDM
12/03/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.71 1.68 Take Profit PB1.05x
12/03/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.71 1.71 Add

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.55 Buy DDM
01/17/19 Citibank Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.23 Hold
01/22/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 0 Hold
01/22/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.5 Buy
01/23/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.21 Neutral DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.4 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.32 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.35 Add DDM
02/15/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.24 2.21 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.3 2.55 Buy
03/01/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.5 Buy
03/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.4 Buy DCF
03/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.6 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.28 2.19 Neutral
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.38 2.6 Buy
04/04/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.6 Buy
04/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 0 Buy
04/25/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.19 Neutral DDM
04/25/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.61 Buy DDM
04/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.37 2.31 Neutral DDM
05/17/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.61 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.25 Neutral
05/17/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.55 Add DDM
05/21/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.4 2.6 Buy
05/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.41 2.71 Buy
05/24/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.44 2.36 Neutral DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.25 Neutral
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.71 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.61 2.36 Neutral
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.55 2.72 Buy
06/24/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.85 Buy
06/24/19 Amfrasers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.33 Neutral DDM
06/24/19 Citibank Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.43 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.59 2.6 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.64 2.25 Neutral
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.64 2.95 Buy
07/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.62 2.72 Buy
07/22/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.36 Neutral
07/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.66 Hold DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.8 Buy DDM
07/24/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.69 Hold
07/24/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.79 Add DDM
07/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 0 Hold
07/26/19 Amfrasers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.63 2.51 Neutral
07/29/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.77 Accumulate DDM
08/22/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.79 Add
08/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.77 Accumulate
08/30/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.9 Add DDM
08/30/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.55 Neutral DDM
09/19/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.7 2.8 Buy
09/24/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.71 2.77 Accumulate
10/02/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.7 2.95 Buy
10/18/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.77 2.77 Accumulate
10/24/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 2.55 Neutral DDM
10/24/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 2.75 Hold
10/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 3.05 Buy
10/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 0 Hold
10/25/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.75 3.11 Accumulate DDM
11/18/19 Citibank Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 3 Buy
11/25/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.76 3.11 Accumulate
11/25/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.76 2.89 Add
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.55 Neutral
12/16/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.67 3.11 Buy
12/19/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.7 2.95 Buy
01/23/20 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 2.85 Hold DDM
01/23/20 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 0 Hold
01/23/20 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 3.05 Buy
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.86 2.95 Buy
01/29/20 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.86 3.11 Accumulate DDM

Stock calls for 30 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/20 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.555 0.48 Hold DCF
01/30/20 Lim & Tan First Reit 0.995 0 Buy on weakness
01/30/20 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 1 1.05 Buy DCF
01/30/20 DBS Vickers Sabana 0.46 0.48 Hold DCF
01/30/20 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.71 0.76 Neutral DDM
01/30/20 Kim Eng Venture 16.14 18.23 Buy
01/30/20 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.99 4.75 Buy

The US FED kept its rates hold just as we had projected.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/29/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates-january-decision/index.html

Our FED's projection had materialized again.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/what-will-fed-do-for-upcoming-meeting.html

Please read our analysis above to understand our methodology better.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.8 10.68 Buy
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.7 10.76 Buy
03/06/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.8 10.76 Buy
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 10.66 11.8 Buy DDM

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.58 0.69 Buy
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.69 Buy
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.525 0.73 Buy PER13x FY19
11/12/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.54 0.73 Buy
11/21/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.6 0.83 Buy PER12x FY20
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.6 0.73 Buy
01/17/20 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.705 0.83 Buy PER12x FY20

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/22/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.27 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
07/26/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.31 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)

Stock calls for 29 January 2020

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Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/20 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.7 0 Hold
01/29/20 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.86 3.11 Accumulate DDM
01/29/20 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 3.6 3.78 Buy DDM

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

What will the FED do for the upcoming meeting?

Let's analyze the 4 US interest rates to find out.

Iorr: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019), Max limit is 1.75% as set by the US FED.


Effr: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019)

Ioer: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019)

On RRP: 1.45% (Same as Dec 2019), Min limit is 1.5% as set by the US FED.

Effr: 1.55%
Ioer: 1.55%

The Effr-Ioer spread is zero which means there is no monetary tightening condition.  However, the On RRP (1.45%) is below the minimum limit set by the US FED because of the repo market intervention.  Since the 4 US rates are the same as the previous month, we can project with the confidence that the US FED will stay put.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/will-us-fed-cut-its-rates-in-december.html

First Resources - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.56 1.6 Hold
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.72 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.69 2.1 Buy
03/01/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.71 2.03 Buy PER17x
03/04/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.72 1.6 Neutral PER13x FY19
03/04/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.72 1.97 Buy DCF
03/05/19 CIMB First Resources 1.7 2.12 Add
03/12/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.69 1.85 Hold Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19 CIMB First Resources 1.79 2.12 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.85 1.85 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.82 2.03 Buy PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.79 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/16/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.7 1.53 Neutral PER13x FY20
05/16/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.7 1.93 Buy PER17x
05/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.7 1.95 Buy DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.7 1.7 Hold Buy @ $1.50
06/06/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.56 1.53 Neutral
07/02/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.6 1.93 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.55 1.82 Buy DCF
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.53 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
08/15/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.57 1.8 Buy PER17x FY20
08/15/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.57 1.45 Neutral PER14x FY20
08/15/19 CIMB First Resources 1.57 1.76 Add
08/21/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.5 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
08/21/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.5 1.8 Buy DCF
09/30/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.6 1.9 Buy PER18x FY20
11/07/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.73 1.9 Buy PER15x FY20
11/12/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.73 1.95 Buy PER18x FY20
11/13/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.78 1.86 Hold PER18x FY20
11/13/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.78 1.85 Buy
11/13/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.78 1.95 Buy DCF
12/10/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.83 2.1 Buy DCF
01/20/20 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.77 2.3 Buy PER18x FY20

First Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 phillip First Reit 1.04 0.88 Neutral DDM
01/17/19 Lim & Tan First Reit 1.03 0 Neutral
01/18/19 OCBC First Reit 1.01 0.97 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB First Reit 1.01 1.2 Add DDM
02/11/19 OCBC First Reit 1.14 0.97 Sell
04/11/19 CIMB First Reit 0.99 1.2 Add DDM
08/13/19 CIMB First Reit 1.06 1.23 Add
11/07/19 CIMB First Reit 1.05 1.2 Add DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.605 0.68 Add
01/16/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.625 0.675 Buy
02/07/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.675 Buy
02/13/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.64 0 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.7 Buy DCF
02/14/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Add DDM
02/14/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.75 Buy DDM
02/14/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Buy
04/15/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.67 Hold
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.7 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.71 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.8 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.645 0.67 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
07/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.82 Buy DDM
07/31/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.67 Hold
07/31/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
08/01/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.68 0.7 Hold DCF
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.65 0.82 Buy
09/19/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.69 0.7 Hold
10/30/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.7 0 Hold
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.86 Buy DCF
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.8 Buy
11/01/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.73 0.8 Buy DDM
11/04/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.735 0.7 Hold
11/04/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.735 0.68 Hold
11/21/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.72 0.8 Buy
12/19/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.72 0.8 Buy
01/14/20 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.755 0.8 Buy

Stock calls for 28 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/20 Lim & Tan BRC Asia 1.69 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.725 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/20 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.56 0.6 Buy
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.715 0.78 Hold DCF
01/28/20 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Asia 0.625 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.23 0.31 Buy DCF
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.75 7.5 Buy Sum of parts
01/28/20 Lim & Tan KSH 0.415 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 Lim & Tan PanUnited 0.375 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.515 0.52 Hold
01/28/20 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.86 2.05 Buy

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Baltic dry index - 557

Today, Friday, January 24 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 19 points, reaching 557 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 794


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, January 24, 2020

Ezion - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.05 0.06 Hold PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PER10x F20
04/05/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PB1.4x