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Wednesday, June 2, 2021

AEM - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

05/08/20

Kim Eng

AEM

3.58

4.04

Buy

PER4.8x FY20/21

05/11/20

CIMB

AEM

3.06

3.58

Add

GGM, PB4.86x

05/11/20

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.06

2.87

Hold

PER10x FY21

05/14/20

Amfrasers

AEM

3.15

3.61

Outperform

PER12x FY20

06/30/20

DBS Vickers

AEM

2.93

3.53

Buy

PER10.4x FY21

07/24/20

Amfrasers

AEM

3.68

4.24

Outperform


07/27/20

Kim Eng

AEM

3.51

4.04

Buy

PB4.8x FY20/21

08/04/20

CIMB

AEM

3.66

4.63

Add

GGM

08/05/20

DBS Vickers

AEM

4.17

4.96

Buy

PER13.7x FY21

08/05/20

Kim Eng

AEM

4.17

4.26

Buy


08/05/20

Amfrasers

AEM

4.17

4.6

Outperform


09/11/20

Kim Eng

AEM

3.29

5.05

Buy


10/07/20

CIMB

AEM

3.62

4.63

Add


10/12/20

Amfrasers

AEM

3.65

4.78

Outperform


10/13/20

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.68

4.96

Buy


11/05/20

Kim Eng

AEM

3.47

5.05

Buy

PER14x FY21

11/05/20

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.47

5.16

Buy

PER13.7x FY21

11/06/20

Amfrasers

AEM

3.54

5.26

Outperform


01/04/21

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.45

5.16

Buy

PER13.7x FY21

01/13/21

Kim Eng

AEM

3.84

5.05

Buy


01/13/21

CIMB

AEM

3.84

4.63

Add

GGM, PB6.09x FY21

02/03/21

DBS Vickers

AEM

4.35

5.16

Buy


03/01/21

Kim Eng

AEM

4.03

5.05

Buy

PER14x FY21

03/02/21

DBS Vickers

AEM

4.02

5.36

Buy


03/02/21

CIMB

AEM

4.02

4.63

Add

GGM, PB4.4x FY21

03/15/21

Amfrasers

AEM

3.86

5.05

Outperform

PER14x FY21

04/23/21

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.98

5.36

Buy


05/04/21

Lim & Tan

AEM

4.08

0

Take Profit


05/05/21

CIMB

AEM

3.79

4.63

Add

GGM, PB4.4x FY21

05/05/21

DBS Vickers

AEM

3.79

4.73

Buy

PER13.7x FY21

05/06/21

Amfrasers

AEM

3.63

4.36

Outperform

PER14x FY21

05/06/21

Kim Eng

AEM

3.63

5.56

Buy


Stock calls for 2 June 2021

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

A-Reit

2.93

3.82

Buy

DDM

06/02/21

DBS Vickers

CDL Hospitality

1.2

1.35

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

Comfortdelgro

1.7

1.99

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

First Resources

1.29

1.83

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

2.42

3

Buy


06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

2.42

3.06

Buy

DDM

06/02/21

DBS Vickers

Genting

0.855

0.95

Buy


06/02/21

Kim Eng

Genting

0.855

1.16

Buy

DCF

06/02/21

Amfrasers

Genting

0.855

0.95

Buy

Buy @ $0.84

06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

IHH Healthcare

1.75

1.82

Buy

Ringgit $5.70 target price

06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

Keppel Reit

1.16

1.49

Buy

DDM

06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

Lendlease Reit

0.765

0.97

Buy

DDM

06/02/21

CIMB

Lendlease Reit

0.765

0.869

Add

DDM

06/02/21

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Commercial

2.09

2.25

Buy


06/02/21

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Industrial

2.78

3.62

Buy

DDM

06/02/21

DBS Vickers

OCBC

12.56

14

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

SATS

4.03

4.5

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

UOB

26.31

29.2

Buy


06/02/21

DBS Vickers

Wilmar

4.84

6.67

Buy

S

Why is there a discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index?

One of my viewers had emailed me to seek an explanation of the discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index.

I'm very heartened that someone is reading my postings seriously and I will do some clarification here.

In my post on 4 Feb 2021 below, the China credit impulse and USD chart showed a strong inverse correlation between China credit impulse and the USD index.  The China credit impulse was starting to weaken at the beginning of 2021 and this would mean that the USD would strengthen (inverse) in the future.




Let's take a look at the latest China credit impulse now.


The China credit impulse is indeed declining in 2021 insofar but the USD is not strengthening (weakening) as predicted which defies the inverse correlation.  The reason for such a deviation is because the short-term data will be affected by many factors and will also lag the long-term trend (China credit impulse trendline, 2009 to 2021 data chart).


I also had stated in my Feb 2021 post that the US treasury yield (10-year) was highly correlated to the USD index.  However, this was only a short-term financial opinion because funds usually would flow from a low-interest yield country to a high-interest yield country as investors would seek higher returns.

My recent post in May 2021 had shown an inverse relationship between inflation expectation and the USD index.  Since the treasury yield forms part of the equation, it is also inversely related to the USD index.


I hope I've clarified all the doubts.  Cheers!

US ISM PMI increase to 61.2 in May 2021.






The prices had remained at a lofty level (88, -1.6) because of the persistent high freight costs, higher crude prices, and rising material prices which still maintained the supplier’s deliveries at a high level of 78.8 (+3.8) and a higher number indicated slower deliveries.  The producers seemed to be stocking up on inventories (50.8, +4.3) in anticipation of rising inflation which increased import and local raw material.


The employment (50.9, -4.2) fell in sync with the drop in production (58.4, -4) which might denote some problem in increasing production.  This could be due to difficulties in retaining and finding workers.


The new order increased to 67 (+2.7) because of rising new export and local orders which caused the customers’ inventories to be depleted further.  As the producers couldn’t produce enough to meet the customers’ demands, the backlog order also increased to 70.6 (+2.4).


All the above factors caused the PMI to increase to 61.2 (+0.5).  In conclusion, this PMI indicates that the US economic growth will be sustained in the coming months.  Furthermore, the low customers’ inventories and inflation will keep prices at a lofty level.

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

08/27/20

Amfrasers

Accordia Golf Trust

0.745

0.75

Accept offer