Wednesday, April 8, 2026

The Iran war situation report. - Part 41

The US has announced a new ceasefire with Iran.  How likely is the new ceasefire going to be accepted by all the parties?  Should we go gaga like the stock market?

Iran has put forth 10 conditions for the new ceasefire and let's review them.
  1. Non-aggression

  2. Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz

  3. Recognition of nuclear enrichment

  4. Lifting of all primary sanctions

  5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions

  6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions

  7. Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions

  8. Payment of compensation to Iran

  9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region

  10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the Islamic Resistance of Lebanon

There are some conditions that the US and Israel can't accept.

The US won't let Iran control the strait of hormuz unilaterally but the US will agree to a co-management of Hormuz with Iran.

The US won't allow Iran to enrich its uranium.  If not, the US won't attack Iran in the first place.

The US won't do any reparation because this will mean that the US has lost the war.

The US also won't withdraw its military forces from the Middle East because this signifies that the US has been booted out and Israel won't feel safe without  the US presence.

With so many conditions deem unacceptable to the US, we don't think that this temporary ceasefire is workable and will last long.

Therefore, the stock market investors are catching the falling knives now by buying into the new ceasefire proposition.

No comments:

Post a Comment