Thursday, April 9, 2026

The US GDP had collapsed! - Part 3

The US GDP growth was weaker than previous forecast.

Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE
Q4 GDP (1st estimate) = (-0.9) + 0.66 + 1.58 + 0.08 = 1.42 (1.4)
Q4 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-1.03) + 0.57 + 1.33 + (-0.22) = 0.65 (0.7)
Q4 GDP (Final) = (-0.99) + 0.4 + 1.3 + (-0.22) = 0.49 (0.5)

We can see from the above GDP breakdown that the GDP components are doing badly.  The US government (G) continued to decrease its spending (-0.99), the investment (I) and consumption (C) also continued to decline because of poor economic conditions and the net exports (NE) remained stagnant.

US PCE: 2.9%
The US PCE is projected to spike next quarter because of the Iran war.  Therefore, this PCE report has become irrelevant.

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