How to predict a stock market chaos caused by a rising treasury yield?

Before we can try to predict a market movement, be it a rise or fall, we need to understand the impact of treasury yield (10-year) on the stock market (Please see below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-us-fed-is-lying-again.html

Since the treasury yield can impact the stock market, we will need to analyze another derivative that is closely related to the treasury yield so that we can deduce the treasury yield impact on the stock market.

I've decided to discuss the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Security) since its yield is closely related to the treasury yield.

TIPS value is affected by inflation and its value will move according to inflation.  Let's look at an example below.

TIPS coupon rate (interest rate) = 1%

TIPS value = $1000

TIPS coupon = $1000 * 1% = $10

If the TIPS value rises to $1020 due to inflation, its coupon value will rise to $10.20 ($1020 * 1%) too.  This is the reason for it to be inflation-protected security since its value will move according to inflation.

The TIPS yield had been in negative territory for most of 2020 and the 30-year TIPS had turned positive recently prior to the market fall which was caused by the rising treasury yield.

TIPS yield = Treasury yield - inflation expectation

For example, if the treasury yield is 2% and the inflation expectation is 2.5, then the TIPS yield will be -0.5 (2% - 2.5%).

TIPS Yields (30y yield is positive)

30-year TIPS yield

Therefore, the TIPS yield could be a precursor of the stock market chaos, particularly in a rising treasury yield environment.