US inflation is unlikely to go below 3.5% in 2024 if it continues on its current monthly rate.

US inflation (yoy): 3.4% and US inflation (mom): 0.3%

Since the yearly inflation is affected by the prior year, it is more accurate to analyse the monthly rates.  The US monthly inflation has been sauntering between 0.3-0.4% persistently without any sign of easing.  If this continues throughout 2024, the US inflation won't go below 3.5% in 2024.

If we strip out the volatile factors (food, energy and shelter), we can see from the chart below that the sticky inflation has increased from 2023 and exceeded 3% in 2024.  Thus, we can have more certainty that the US Fed will hold its rates for now.