Let's break down the latest US Q1 2025 GDP result (-0.3%).
The previous Q4 2024 GDP:
GDP growth = G + I + C + NE
Q4 GDP (2024) = 0.52 + (-1.03) + 2.7 + 0.26 = 2.45 (2.4)
The current Q1 2025 GDP:
Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = (-0.25) + 3.6 + 1.21 + (-4.83) = -0.27 (-0.3)
As we can see from the above GDP components, the government spending (G) has being cut significantly by the DOGE (Elon Musk) department. The investment (I) increases massively because of stockpiling by producers, wholesalers and retailers before the tariff hikes. The tariff hikes have decreased the US consumption (C) and net export (NE) significantly. The NE decreases massively because of an import surge that is caused by front-loading whereby the US import exceeds exports by a wide margin.
This GDP estimate is a very bad report which is caused by the tariff hikes.
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