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Tuesday, December 2, 2025

The ISM PMI declined again in November 2025.

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = -2 - (+1.7) = -3.7

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = 3.1 - (+3.5) = -0.4

The estimated local new orders (-3.7) had declined significantly compared to the previous month and the increase in new export orders couldn't make up for the fall which caused the new orders to decline to 47.4 (-2).  The increase in new export orders also showed that the US was using its exports to boost its economy as it couldn't rely on its local consumption anymore.

The producers increased their production (51.4, +3.2) to clear their backlog of orders (44, -3.9) despite the fall in new orders.  However, the producers didn't increase their employment (44, -2) for their output hike which was a concern.  Consequently, the customers' inventories increased to 44.7 (+0.8) because of the  fall in new orders.  All these meant that the US consumption was showing weaknesses because of prices inflation (58.5, +0.5).

As a result, the PMI declined to 48.2 (-0.5) because of its bleak economic growth.

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