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Saturday, January 28, 2017

Baltic dry index - 827

Today, Friday, January 27 2017, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 13 points, reaching 827 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks : Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

US rig count - 712

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 18 this week to 712.
A year ago, 619 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 566 rigs sought oil and 145 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas increased by nine rigs, Oklahoma was up by five, New Mexico increased by four, Louisiana was up by two and Alaska and North Dakota each increased by one.
Colorado decreased by three rigs and Arkansas and West Virginia each were down by one.
California, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and Wyoming were all unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

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Related stocks : Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 26 January 2017


A leopard won't change its spots. Bill Clinton was caught by Hillary again.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bill-clinton-caught-checking-out-9664698

Hillary caught Bill ogling at Ivanka.  Bill is still as horny as before. Hahaha!

USA may withdraw from UN because Trump wanna cut costs by not paying for membership.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0124/c90000-9170716.html

Trump is trying to cut costs for USA by withdrawing from UN.  This shows that USA is on the brink of running out of money.  Once confidence in USD collapses, it will expedite the collapse of USA too.  USA will reach the debt limit in March 2017 and the congress has to approve a higher debt limit or USA will go bankrupt in March 2017.

China is preparing for confrontation with USA with its latest D-41 missiles.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0125/c90000-9171195.html

China has begun deploying the latest D-41 missiles which can target USA homeland.  USA has fought many wars but never one on its own land.  The way to win the war is to bring the war to USA homeland for its citizens to see the horrendous outcome.  Then the citizens will blame USA for meddling in South China Sea affairs.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

SG tanks are coming home for CNY!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/detained-terrex-vehicles-will-be-returned-to-singapore-mfa-110556849.html

Look like our government has agreed to the 2 conditions imposed by China in exchange for our SG tanks.  Anyway, it's a good news that our SG tanks are coming back.

War is looming in South China Sea!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-white-house-vows-stop-china-taking-south-030058387.html

If Trump persists in having his own way, there will be a war in SCS.  A war in SCS is detrimental to international trades as USD$5t worth of goods go through SCS every year.

Singapore stock calls for 24 January 2017


Trump terminates TPP officially.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html?_r=0

This is not unexpected as Trump and Hillary both disapproved TPP previously.  Only those countries with unrealistic hope are disappointed because they refused to heed Trump's disapproval and insisted on TPP.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Mirage appearing in China sky again.


China new military aircraft caught on cam.


Baltic dry index - 925

Today, Friday, January 20 2017, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 17 points, reaching 925 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Cosco, Sembcorp Marine.

US rig count - 694

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. leaped by 35 this week to 694.
A year ago, 637 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 551 rigs sought oil and 142 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas jumped by 17 rigs, Oklahoma increased by seven, North Dakota was up three and Ohio two. New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia increased one apiece.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana and Wyoming were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine, Cosco.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 20 January 2017


USA is increasing tension between Taiwan and China.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/01/19/taiw-j19.html

If USA approves military base in Taiwan, it means that USA doesn't recognise the one-China policy or UN resolution 2758.  This action will cause China to cut tie with USA and also prompt China to retake Taiwan by military force.  This world is definitely better without USA.

China train freight had reached London for the first time.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38654176

China can transport cargoes to London without passing through Singapore for the first time by using train freight instead of sea freight.  Sea freight will take 45 days while train freight will take only 18 days.  Kudos to China for the one belt one road initiative!

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

A Japanese hotel operator is helping the Japanese government to whitewash its historical crimes.

http://english.cri.cn/12394/2017/01/17/4381s949934.htm

All the Japanese war crimes are archived in UNESCO documentary and the Japanese government cannot lie to the whole world except its own citizens.  This is the reason why the world keeps insisting that Japan must apologize for WW2 atrocities because Japan keeps whitewashing the historical facts.

Do not buy Made-In-China food products!

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2062536/leftovers-industrial-salt-used-make-fake-branded-food

China factories are producing fake branded food products.  Better to be safe than sorry.  Do not buy made in china food products.

Singapore stock calls for 17 January 2017


Monday, January 16, 2017

China warns Trump again!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/beijing-off-gloves-trump-continues-taiwan-china-daily-032357952.html

Trump will destroy USA because UN won't support USA due to UN resolution 2758.

Singapore stock calls for 16 January 2017


China media told it all about the seizure of SG tanks!

What SG government didn't tell its citizens, the China media told it all.

SG broke its promise not to train in Taiwan anymore in 2009 and 2012.  China has stated clearly that it won't return SG tanks unless we agree to 2 conditions.

Is the starlight exercise in Taiwan really due to our land constraints in SG?

http://news.asiaone.com/news/asian-opinions/no-reason-spore-stop-military-training-taiwan

China had offered its Hainan island to SG for our military exercises but our PM rejected it.  Therefore, we cannot keep saying that we have to conduct military exercises in Taiwan due to our land constraints in SG because it doesn't make sense anymore.

http://www.foreignbrief.com/china-singapore-relations-seizure/

A cool job with high pay!

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/8000-apply-baidu-map-collector-vacancies

Too bad we're stuck in a small red dot! Arrggghhhh!

Is USA willing to play second fiddle to China in AIIB?

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0116/c90000-9167343.html

The later you join the AIIB, the lesser clout you will have in AIIB.  Therefore, USA will only play second fiddle to China in AIIB as it is a late comer.  AIIB is spearheaded by China and China will be the chair in AIIB.  Can USA take the insult to be in a supporting role instead of the leading role?

Vietnam forsakes USA and deflects to China after Philippines.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0116/c90000-9167323.html

As we stated in our previous post, USA would alienate itself in South China Sea (SCS).  2 claimants have agreed to bilateral settlements with China without USA involvement.  Therefore, non-claimants like USA, Japan and SG have no right but to remain silent over the SCS issue.

If China expedites the one belt one road initiatives, SG will collapse at a rapid rate than we will imagine.

Singapore future is sealed!

http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/china-projects-malaysia-hit-singapore

We've been warning about this in our posting.  This bleak outcome will come.  It is a matter of when, not if.  SG future is cast in iron already as China has already spent so much for the one belt one road initiative.

Saturday, January 14, 2017

OMG! Trump says he won't commit to one-China policy!

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/trump-suggests-he-could-lift-russia-sanctions-wont-commit-one-china-policy-1601029

UN recognises the one-China policy but Trump doesn't want to recognise it.  There will be serious repercussions when Trump doesn't commit to the one-China policy after his inauguration.

There will be more trade wars between USA & China and China will oppose USA in UN by vetoing USA proposition.

USA is building up its military tanks in Poland.

Here we go again!  Tension continues to rise in EU because of USA.  This is like USA preparation for a war against Russia with its tank buildup.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/12/doubts-over-biggest-us-deployment-in-europe-since-cold-war-under-trump

Russia views it as a serious threat and will definitely retaliate in its own way.

USA is also creating tension in Israel and Palestine by moving its US embassy to a sensitive location, Jerusalem.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/trump-israel-embassy/

The world is really better without USA!

Amazing UFO footage in Poland sky.


Baltic dry index - 910

Today, Friday, January 13 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 18 points, reaching 910 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
====================
This news is important for investors who are interested in Cosco and Sembcorp Marine.

US rig count - 659

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. declined by six this week to 659.
A year ago, 650 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent months.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 522 rigs sought oil and 136 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Wyoming increased by two rigs and Louisiana by one.
Oklahoma and Texas each declined by two rigs. Colorado, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania fell by one each.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
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This news is important for investors who are interested in Keppel Corp, Cosco and Sembcorp Marine as these companies are involved in rig building.

Friday, January 13, 2017

Singapore has bowed to China finally! - Part 2

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/12/23/2003661755


After the seizure of SG tanks in HK, Singapore is playing by ear when it comes to dealing with China.  SG had denied Taiwan ex-official entry so that it won't antagonize China.

China's strategy to gag SG for its vocal expression of anti-China remarks with the seizure of SG tanks has been working well because SG has managed to stay silent on Taiwan issues. Therefore, China will detain SG tanks as long as it deems fit to gag SG while it continues to besiege Taiwan politically.

Alien autopsy performed in Russia in 1969.


Singapore stock calls for 13 January 2017


Singapore port volume has dropped again!

Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:
2011 = 29.94m
2012 = 31.65m
2013 = 32.6m
2014 = 33.87m
2015 = 30.9m
2016 = 30.59m
SG port volume has dropped for 2 consecutive years.  Will SG decline again in 2017?  It is likely that SG port will decline further because of new ports and land freights operating in 2017 which are under the control of China.

China has upped its ante against Taiwan.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-protests-nigerias-demand-move-trade-mission-44729490

Nigeria has demanded Taiwan trade office to move out of its capital because of China.

China is taking more actions against Taiwan and there will be more draconian actions when Trump refuses to recognise the one-China policy.

The likely motive behind the seizure of SG tanks in HK is to compel SG to remain silent on the Taiwan issue.  China will detain SG tanks as long as it deems necessary despite SG protest as it is an effective way to gag SG.  This has proven to be true as we've been silence insofar.


Who will be in charge of South China Sea in the future?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-russia-agree-more-countermeasures-against-u-anti-001503653.html

China and Russia will be in charge of SCS in the future, not USA!  We better choose to be on the right side or else we will suffer.  There is no way for USA to win a war against 2 big nuclear countries.  Once China and Russia have set a code of conduct for SCS and strengthen their military ties for SCS, the rest of the world will have to follow this code of conduct and nobody is allowed to challenge it.

Hot news! CNN alleged Trump has a sex fetish!

https://noxious.ca/2017/01/11/trump-to-cnn-you-are-fake-news/

CNN alleged that Trump has a sex fetish which is watching woman pissing!  I've not seen a news media and an incumbent president squabbled in a news conference before.  This shows that Trump is really unwelcome as the president. Even UK media doesn't like him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/donald-trump-says-will-consequences-buzzfeed-attacks-cnn-mocks/

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 12 January 2017


US should stop the pissing match! Get real and put money where your mouth is!

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2061560/beijing-will-retaliate-if-us-tries-block-chinas-access

If USA wants to stop China or kick China out of South China Sea (SCS), it has to go to war with China.  It's better to do it now than later.  Once China has 3 aircraft carriers, it will have control of SCS.  Therefore, USA should stop the pissing match and get real with some actions like starting a war with China.  If not, USA should keep its mouth shut and remain silent forever because it will lose total control of SCS when China has 3 aircraft carriers.  This is the harsh fact of life!

I don't advocate or promote SCS war but it's just useless to start a pissing match with nothing being done.  Either we accept the inevitable outcome or we change the ensuing outcome.  USA is not ready to start a SCS war but it is only willing to start a useless pissing match with China by dragging other Asia countries like SG and SK into it.

South Korea underestimated China's reaction on THAAD.



As the ruling party still insists on THAAD, China has upped the ante with a ban on 19 korean cosmetics after blockage of korean entertainment artistes.

if SG also underestimates China's reaction and insists on state immunity for our tanks, we may not get our tanks back because state immunity is NOT in force under UN.  State immunity is a privilege extended to a foreign country and can be withdrawn or revoked when the political relationship between the 2 nations turns south.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 11 January 2017


What is state immunity?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_immunity

Not in force yet!  Therefore, it is still a privilege and China has the prerogative to seize and confiscate our tanks unless state immunity is extended to SG out of goodwill.

China fake rice has appeared in HK.

http://hongkong.coconuts.co/2017/01/10/suspected-plastic-rice-being-sold-hong-kong-restaurants



Be careful when you eat rice in HK!

China is preparing for the worst scenario.

China military is trying to familiarize with the aviation routes in preparation for the possible worst scenario in the future.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201701100021.html

If Trump rejects the one-China policy upon inauguration, China will impose economic sanctions against Taiwan and also take military actions to surround Taiwan.  As China is anticipating USA and Japan to come to help Taiwan, it has to familiarize with the aviation routes around Japan for future military confrontations.  Tension is indeed rising in South China Sea.

The truth behind the comfort women settlement.


USA was behind the comfort women settlement between japan and south korea because USA wanted them to bury the hatchet so that they could work together to contain china.  USA pressured President Park to accept the unfair comfort women settlement from Japan and this irked the South Koreans.  There’s no reason for Japan to complain to USA about South Korea if USA was not involved in the settlement as this matter was just between the 2 nations.


Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Alien's hand skeleton found in Peru.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097782/Is-proof-ALIENS-Peru-Mysterious-giant-claw-warped-skulls-unearthed-tunnels-deep-South-American-desert.html

This hand skeleton has 3 long fingers with 6 sections which is unlike a human or ape's hand.

Is this the holy grail that proves alien existed in the past?

Singapore stock calls for 10 January 2017


Singapore has admitted that we're at the mercy of HK court.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/asian-opinions/terrex-vehicles-ball-now-hks-court

State immunity is a privilege (not an entitlement) that can be extended and also can be revoked.  Therefore, there is no such protection under international law because state immunity is based on political relationship between 2 nations.  The truth is out finally and we're really at the mercy of HK court.  If HK doesn't extend this privilege to SG because we're so anti-China, HK has the right to seize and confiscate our tanks.  We can only shut up and suck our thumb in a corner while waiting for the kind gesture from HK.


High interest rate environment is coming! - Part 2

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/china-factory-prices-rising-fastest-in-5-years-adds-to-reflation?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

Inflation is coming!  Please read our previous post below for more details.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html

How fake rice is made in China with plastic bags!


Singapore household debt is at an alarming level.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/household-debt-singapore-trends-causes-174221552.html

A slowdown in our economy will cause huge stresses in household debts which will greatly reduce our economy and this will become a vicious cycle.  Higher interest rates are coming and will cause a slowdown in our economy.  Be prepared for the worst!

Monday, January 9, 2017

China warns SG after our defence minister's speech.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-urges-caution-with-words-actions-on-terrex-issue/3424574.html

We should be careful about what we say if we want our tanks back as our tanks are in their premise.

Singapore stock calls for 9 January 2017


Malaysia is trying to cripple SG economy now!

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/malaysia-build-giant-64-billion-port-carey-island

Beside China containment on SG, Malaysia is also trying to steal SG port business now!  SG will have a harder time to survive in the future.

Our defence minister is an expert in international and HK laws! Wow!

http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/seizure-saf-armoured-vehicles-hong-kong-against-international-law-ng-eng-hen

When did our defence minister, a medical doctor, become an expert in international and HK laws.  If our SG tanks en route to HK was legal, there's no basis for our tanks to be detained in HK and HK wouldn't have proclaimed that the detainment was due to improper documentation.

We're making a BIG mistake to declare that HK contravened international law and its own HK laws just to detain SG tanks especially our tanks are still being seized in HK.

Asia economies will be greatly affected by Taiwan and China relationship in 2017. Why?

20 Jan 2017 will be the inauguration of USA president (Trump) and if he chooses to ignore the one-china policy that the current ruling Taiwan government refuses to recognise, China will begin to impose economic sanctions against Taiwan in 2017.

If USA and Japan support and go to the aid of Taiwan, China will send its navy to surround and block international trading for Taiwan to force the ruling party to give up.

We MUST NOT underestimate the resolve of China because Taiwan is a province of China and China won't let it go at any cost.  As such, USA resolution won't be as strong as China in this sense.

It doesn't matter whether China will win or lose this battle to take back Taiwan because China will keep on trying no matter what at any cost.  Is USA ready to take on China for the numerous attempts that China is resolved to undertake?

Not to forget 1.4b China people will support its China government to retake Taiwan as they also recognise that Taiwan is part of China.  Good luck to Asia in 2017!

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Trade war may go into full mode this year.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0107/c90000-9163956.html

All bets are off if trade war enters into full mode and the world economies will suffer.  Let's hope this won't happen as SG will suffer tremendously when international trades diminish.

Tension rising in EU.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-tanks-roll-germany-bolster-nato-deterrent-125446262.html

I don't know who is provocating who in this article when Europe is building up military strength against Russia and USA is involved again.  Look like US presence always brings tension and war just like in South China Sea and Middle East.  The world is definitely a better place without USA.

Baltic dry index - 983

Today, Thursday, January O5 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 983 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

US rig count - 665

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by seven this week to 665.
A year ago, 664 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 529 rigs sought oil and 135 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
New Mexico and Texas each gained three rigs, Louisiana added two and Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania each added one.
Wyoming declined by two rigs and Alaska lost one.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

Friday, January 6, 2017

Let's stop harping on South China Sea for the new year as world economies won't be good.

USA is good at fabricating false intelligence and also is a great storyteller.

USA interfered in South China Sea (SCS) in the name of freedom of navigation (FON).  Let's check out the facts.  USA endorsed China's claims on SCS at the end of WW2 because it sent USA naval vessels to accompany China to retake the islands.  Thus, China has been proclaiming the SCS rights for the past 70 years already.

Is there really a concern for freedom of navigation.  There is not a single case of commercial liners being stopped by China in SCS over 70 years.  Furthermore, commercial liners do not want to sail through Spratly islands because of the treacherous terrain like reefs and rocks.  Please see the commercial sea routes for SCS below.


No shippers want to sail through Spratly islands.  As such, there is no point to promote freedom of navigation for Spratly islands.  It's pretty obvious that the USA has ulterior motive by sailing through Spratly islands in the name of FON and we are supporting USA for the wrong reason.

US intelligence stands firm on Russia finding

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-intelligence-chiefs-stand-firm-on-russia-findings/3417456.html

The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.

USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.

AMKTC vs AHTC

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/avoid-premature-speculation-on-ang-mo-kio-town-council-case-workers-party-084355478.html

PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now!  Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?

AI trumps humans again!

http://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-gaming/article/2059568/winning-online-go-master-revealed-be-ai-programme-deepmind

This is a significant step forward for AI.  Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess.  There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity.  Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.

In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.

Singapore stock calls for 6 January 2017


US debt is reaching 20T soon!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html

The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA.  20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.

Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Nikkei index is overbought now!

Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future.  This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".

Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.

Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)
Expected futures = 18500
Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days
Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%
Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16

After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago.  The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.



Singapore stock calls for 5 January 2017


USA is trying to get back at South Korea.



USA is trying to get back at South Korea over Qualcomm fine.  South Korea has to fight trade wars against China and USA now.

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

SG tanks are still impounded by HK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-armoured-vehicles-still-impounded-hong-kong-authorities-062118592.html

The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China.  China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do.  We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore.  We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation.  Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.

South Korea ruling party is still adamant about THAAD installation.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/korea-vows-us-missile-system-opposition-lawmakers-head-063749858.html

South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA.  THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons.  North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against.  Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.

Singapore stock calls for 4 January 2017


Tuesday, January 3, 2017

There is no turning back for Singapore anymore.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-starts-freight-train-to-london-as-xi-promotes-trade-ties

China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore.  Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.

This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China.  This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.

Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2

Current futures = 19080 (last closing)
Expected futures = 19600
Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days
Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%
Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16
As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory.  Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.


After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%.  Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.

Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html

Singapore stock calls for 3 January 2017


China refuses to grant South Korea air rights.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/south-korea-considers-%E2%80%9Cmeasures%E2%80%9D-as-china-blocks-charter-flights

This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system.  When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you.  This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.

Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says