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Thursday, September 21, 2017

Why did PM Lee go to China in September 2017?

PM Lee had requested for the new sea-rail link developments between China & SG in this Sino-SG meeting.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/new-sea-rail-link-between-china-and.html

We reported this new sea-rail link before.

PM Lee had also promised to promote China-ASEAN relationship in 2018 when it's the chairman and invited China to participate in the KL-SG HSR.

Basically, this trip is to appease and pacify China because PM Lee realizes that he cannot rely on Trump as he is unpredictable.

Singapore stock calls for 21 September 2017


Who will win the KL-SG HSR project?

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/lta-forms-new-unit-to-implement-the-kl-singapore-high-speed-rail-project

China? Japan? Korea? or France?

Well, Singapore is responsible for 15km while Malaysia will build 335km of the 350km KL-SG HSR.  Therefore, Malaysia will definitely have a bigger say in this joint-venture.  Furthermore, Malaysia will also have to consider its KL-BKK HSR.  Thus, it is in Malaysia's interest to have the same HSR system as it is easier and cheaper to maintain than to have 2 different HSR systems.

However, in Singapore context, we would like to have an open standard railway system so that we're not at the mercy of a single vendor.  This difference in consideration will not sit well with the Malaysia side as Malaysia has more considerations than SG.

Recently, Thailand had awarded its cross-border Thai-Laos HSR to China.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html

In view of this, it is likely that China will win the BKK-KL HSR too.  Consequently, Malaysia will want to adopt the same HSR system for its KL-SG HSR.

US Fed maintains interest rate and will begin QE tapering in October 2017.

The US Fed has maintained its interest rate as expected but will begin its QE tapering in October 2017 with an initial US$10b monthly taper.  In a nutshell, this means FED will not reinvest US$10b from its bond proceeds when the bonds mature and this will gradually increase to US$50b per month.

QE tapering will only affect long-term rates because these bonds and MBS maturity periods are long while the FED rate hikes will affect short-term rates like overnight bank rate, loan rate, etc.  The FED is expected to hike rate in December 2017 and 3x in 2018.

All in all, rates are definitely rising in the future.


South Korea and China trade war has intensified.

http://english.etnews.com/20170919200001

South Korea has decided to halt its semiconductor and display manufacturer from setting up factories in China in retaliation.  However, this move will hurt its Korean businesses.

Why?

China has already produced its own Kirin 970 AI chip which will be used on China-made mobile phones and Sharp is going to produce 8K display panels in China Foxconn factory.  Furthermore, TSMC is also producing its A11 chips in China too.  Therefore, I don't see any technology transfer from SK to China.  Instead, SK manufacturers will lose their competitive edges when they don't set up their factories in China because it will take a longer time to deliver their products to China consumers.  The production cost will also be higher when they don't set up factories in China.

Good luck to SK as SK is slowly killing its own businesses.

Russia and China snub Trump's speech on UN reform.

https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/russia-and-china-snub-trump-guterres-meeting-on-un-reform-1.629753

It's difficult to pass any motion without China & Russia approvals as these 2 are permanent members and have veto powers.

The absence of China & Russia showed that the USA would face tremendous difficulties in UN.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

How do you know Sino-SG relationship is going well?

Well, when SG allows China naval vessels and subs to berth at our port, it shows that Sino-SG relationship is going well.

Just look at Malaysia.  PM Najib was in USA but China sub was berthing at Malaysia port.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-malaysia-southchinasea/chinese-sub-docks-at-malaysian-port-for-second-time-this-year-idUSKCN1BO17P


Trump's speech at UN received some heavy criticism.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41327130

Swedish FM remark was a direct slap at Trump - Wrong speech, wrong time & wrong audience!  In other words, Swedish FM was saying Trump was spewing nonsense at the UN summit.

Trump had made a mockery of himself in the world with this speech.  His speech is more likely to create ramification than to garner good unison.

China has also expressed a peaceful resolution on the NK issue which is an exact opposite of what Trump is doing.  Trump is trying to set the motion of war against NK but he is doomed to fail.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0920/c90000-9271375.html

Singapore stock calls for 20 September 2017


Blah Blah Blah! That's what Trump is good at but nothing gets done.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-expected-rebuke-states-114254280.html

NATO is the essence of Trump's speech.  This NATO is No Action, Talk Only.

There is no way for Trump to destroy NK totally without China & Russia approvals.  This is a fact and China & Russia have veto powers in UN.  NK is not Iraq whereby the USA can attack NK unilaterally.  China & Russia won't allow it.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Hot news! USA and Taiwan are in cahoots to topple the Cambodian government.

http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/hun-sen-hits-us-foreign-policy

This is the usual mode of operandi whenever the local government is not the USA ally.  The USA knew that Hun was wary of USA operatives in Cambodia.  Therefore, the USA asked Taiwan to do this on behalf of the USA.  However, the Taiwan businessmen were taken aback by the Cambodian media outburst.

The Taiwan businessmen were so afraid of being implicated in this matter that they published in the mainstream newspaper for 3 days that they were not involved in this "regime change".

In the end, the Taiwan government was forced to come forth to deny any involvement in toppling the Cambodian government.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201709190008.aspx

Cambodian Hun was just issuing a subtle warning to Taiwan through the media not to help the USA to topple the government and nobody was arrested in this episode.  Hun would have arrested those involved in the "regime change" if he didn't want to give Taiwan a chance to back off.  Hun was willing to give Taiwan a chance because he recognised the one-China policy.  Let's not forget Hun was a hard-handed man in the past.

USA embassy in Cuba was under sonic weapon attack recently.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/09/18/scientists-still-baffled-by-mysterious-sonic-weapon-attack-on-us-embassy-in-cuba.html

USA embassy will be closed in Cuba for its personnel health protection.  The USA is certain that its embassy in Cuba is under some kind of sonic weapon attack but it cannot determine the source and frequency.

21 personnel have been confirmed to be injured by this sonic attack.

The real threat to global trade!

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2111759/trumps-trade-chief-says-china-threat-global-trading

The USA is back again with a smearing campaign against China by labelling China as an unprecedented threat.  However, the real threat to the global trade is the USA because of its protectionism and anti-globalization policies.  The USA even tries to supersede WTO rules with its own 301 trade law.

Just look at how Germany & BRICS condemned the USA.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/merkel-trump-attack-foreign-policy-winners-losers-a7825161.html

http://thehill.com/policy/international/340646-merkel-hits-us-policy-ahead-of-g20-summit

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-06/20/content_29808940.htm

A research showed that anti-globalization was the no.1 threat facing Asia Pacific but the USA wanted to mislead the world by embarking on a smearing campaign.

http://www.asiaone.com/business/anti-globalisation-no-1-threat-facing-asia-pacific-report

Singapore stock calls for 19 September 2017


China President Xi Jinping will be having a final showdown with Jiang Zemin soon.



The most corrupted person, Yang XiuZhu, was on a run for 13 years before she requested in the USA to return to China to face trial.  This was something puzzling and uncanny because she would be facing a death sentence in China under the corruption and bribery charges.

She was in custody for a long time before she was given a trial recently.  Why did she request to face trial in China after being on the run for 13 years? We'll come to this in a moment.

Meanwhile, President Xi had just completed his military revamp recently by replacing all the top honchos including the chief of general staff.  President Xi had managed to replace all the Jiang's henchmen in the military.  Therefore, he has total control of the military now and he can have a final showdown with Jiang Zemin.  Jiang is currently under house arrest in China.

The withholdment of Yang's sentence was bewildering because it was a corruption case proven beyond reasonable doubt.  It was speculated that Yang was willing to return to China to face trial because President Xi promised to pardon her death sentence in exchange for her to become a tainted witness to testify against Jiang Zemin.  We also believe this to be true because nobody would be so foolish to return to face a death sentence in China especially when she was no longer in China anymore.

Please read about the China political situation below.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Singapore NODX jumps significantly in August with 17% year on year growth.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-s-exports-jump-17-in-fourth-straight-month-of-growth-9225588

Singapore is a country which relies heavily on international trading and our economic growth also depends significantly on net exports.

China is our largest export nation now and will impact SG's economic growth since we cannot find another market to replace China.

Does it make sense to offend our largest trading partner for the political interest of another nation (USA)?

Asia will get more and more affected by China, whether we like it or not.  The USA doesn't care about Asia except for its own political interest.  I hope our government will make the right choice.

The USA is just setting the motion for a war against North Korea.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/north-korea-will-destroyed-reckless-behaviour-continues-us-ambassador-warns-090000879.html

The USA already knew that sanctions won't work on NK but still insisted on sanctions because it would give the USA the excuse to wage a war against NK after all the available avenues had been exhausted.  However, it's a wishful thinking because China & Russia won't allow a war at their doorsteps.  Having a war near China & Russia means that China & Russia will have to deal with millions of refugees and also the USA influences on the Korean peninsula after the war.  This kind of situation is something China & Russia don't want to see and they'll definitely get involved in the war.

Singapore stock calls for 18 September 2017


Will PM Lee flip-flop on Sino-SG relationship when he visits USA after China?

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-china-relations-will-continue-advancing-with-the-times-says-pm-lee

It is gladdening to see that our PM Lee is making pro-China remarks.  However, I hope that he won't make anti-China remarks later when he visits USA.

It is despicable in the eyes of the public to see our leader making flip-flop statements in different countries.  When there is no unison in our political stance, there won't be any credibility and trust in our nation.  This won't bode well for SG in the future as no country will trust SG.

President Halimah is here to divide or unite Singaporeans?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-singapore-protest/singaporeans-protest-against-uncontested-presidential-election-idUSKCN1BR0I3?il=0

It's sad to see that Singaporeans protest against our Malay reserved President.  This shows that she doesn't have the mandate of the people and has become a controversial president.

However, this was what 70% of Singaporeans wanted in the last GE.  Singaporeans wanted to have a one-party system and this was the repercussion we needed to accept.

We have to repent and accept the inevitable outcome.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/halimah-yacob-has-become-most.html

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Baltic dry index - 1385

Today, Friday, September 15 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 24 points, reaching 1385 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco, Pan Ocean

US rig count - 936

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. fell by eight this week to 936.
That's up from the 506 rigs that were active a year ago.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 749 rigs sought oil and 186 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, West Virginia added one rig.
Louisiana and Texas each lost three rigs. Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota each shed one.
Alaska, California, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Utah and Wyoming were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, September 15, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 15 September 2017


It's official! China has ordered bitcoin exchanges to shut down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reports-china-orders-bitcoin-exchanges-103642560.html

One of the biggest bitcoin exchanges BTC will shut on 30 September 2017.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-has-made-decision-to-shut-down.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/bitcoin-is-dropping-right-now-after-a-big-chinese-exchange-said-it-is-closing.html

China plans to cut oil demand by 10% in 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-biofuels/china-sets-2020-target-for-nationwide-ethanol-use-to-cut-corn-stocks-idUSKCN1BO03R

China will impose ethanol use to reduce oil demand in 2020.  This will definitely impact the oil and corn prices in the future.  However, this will be a good news for the environment.

North Korea has fired another missile today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/asia-markets-focus-on-north-korea-yen-gold-fed-boe.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104711087&yptr=yahoo

Japan and South Korea do not dare to intercept the NK missile with THAAD and SM-3 missile systems.

Why?

This is because intercepting the NK missile is a lose-lose situation.

If the interception fails, this will bring shame to the USA and nobody will trust the USA defence system anymore.  If it succeeds, the NK will be angry and do more nuclear testing.

Therefore, Japan and SK can only watch the NK missile launch without doing anything.