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Saturday, July 20, 2019

China released spy satellite images of US airforce near Iran.

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-07-16/doc-ihytcerm4066453.shtml

China is helping Iran by monitoring the US airforce buildup near Iran with its own spy satellites.

China even interpreted the images for Iran and predicted the whereabouts of F35 and F22.

This will help Iran to better deploy its air defence missiles systems.  We also must not forget Russia which will help Iran too.

Baltic dry index - 2170

Today, Friday, July 19 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 40 points, reaching 2170 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 954

Related stock: Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, July 19, 2019

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.8 Buy DDM
01/02/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.63 Add
01/17/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
01/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.83 Buy
01/31/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.64 Add DDM
01/31/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy DDM
01/31/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.56 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Add
02/28/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.8 Add
04/04/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.85 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.67 1.8 Buy
05/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.77 Buy DDM
05/02/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy DDM
05/02/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.54 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.85 Buy
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.99 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.85 Add DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.77 Buy
06/11/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.62 2.06 Buy DDM
06/25/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.66 1.77 Buy
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.65 2.06 Buy

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.42 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.39 1.66 Accumulate
03/21/19 Amfrasers CapitaRetail China 1.52 1.61 Buy DDM
04/03/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.57 1.65 Buy
04/26/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.51 1.5 Hold
06/11/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.56 1.5 Hold
06/12/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.35 Sell
06/12/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.65 Buy
06/12/19 Lim & Tan CapitaRetail China 1.53 0 Hold
06/14/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.5 1.38 Hold
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Accumulate

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.26 2.29 Hold DDM
01/23/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.27 2.12 Hold
01/24/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.09 Neutral DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold DDM
01/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold
01/24/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.44 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.02 Hold Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.38 2.09 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.42 2.25 Hold
03/14/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.2 Neutral DDM
04/04/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.41 2.4 Hold DDM
04/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.32 2.25 Hold
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.55 Buy
04/25/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.32 Hold
04/26/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.21 Neutral DDM
04/26/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.39 Hold DDM
05/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.44 2.65 Buy DDM
06/06/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.46 2.33 Hold
06/19/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.21 Neutral
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.58 2.65 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.6 2.4 Hold
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.71 2.2 Neutral

Stock calls for 19 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/19/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.5 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.78 0.75 Hold DCF
07/19/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.15 1.98 Neutral DDM
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.43 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
07/19/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 6.59 7.3 Buy Sum of parts
07/19/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.59 8.41 Add
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 6.59 7.61 Buy
07/19/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.59 0 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 2.07 2.25 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.85 Buy
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.45 1.65 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.23 0.34 Buy PER16x FY20
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.32 4.8 Sell
07/19/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.32 5 Hold DCF
07/19/19 CIMB SATS 5.32 5.4 Hold PER21.9x CY20
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Soilbuild Reit 0.615 0.6 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Soilbuild Reit 0.615 0.63 Hold DCF

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 5

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3018924/chinas-may-holdings-us-treasuries-dip-third-straight-month-two

China sold US treasuries in May 2019 again.

We've explained the selloff in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html


Thursday, July 18, 2019

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.11 4 Buy
01/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.07 3.96 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.06 3.55 Add RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.27 3.62 Buy
01/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.27 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.39 0 Buy
02/21/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.43 3.98 Buy RNAV
02/21/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.43 4 Accumulate PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.43 3.56 Add RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.43 3.62 Buy
03/18/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.44 3.98 Buy
03/21/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.47 0 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.44 3.56 Add
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitaland 3.65 4.4 Buy
04/02/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.69 3.9 Outperform RNAV (30% discount)
04/02/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.69 3.98 Buy
05/02/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.53 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.53 0 Hold
05/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.54 4.04 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.54 3.56 Add
05/27/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.28 4 Buy RNAV (25% discount)
06/12/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.41 4 Buy
06/18/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.42 4.1 Outperform RNAV (25% discount)
07/05/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.69 4 Buy
07/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.69 4 Accumulate
07/15/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.69 4.15 Add RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.69 4.04 Buy

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.75 1.9 Accumulate
01/14/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.82 2.11 Buy DDM
01/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.83 1.68 Hold
01/25/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.85 2.16 Buy DDM
01/25/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.85 1.86 Neutral DDM
01/25/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.85 2 Buy DCF
01/25/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.85 0 Hold
01/28/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.83 Hold
01/28/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.94 Add
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.86 1.93 Accumulate
03/18/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.98 1.86 Neutral
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.92 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.93 Neutral DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.86 Neutral DDM
04/22/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.88 Hold
04/22/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.03 Add DDM
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF
04/22/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.93 0 Hold
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.9 2.16 Buy
05/17/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.95 2.16 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.05 2.16 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 1.93 Neutral
06/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.14 1.88 Sell
07/04/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.23 1.86 Neutral
07/17/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.18 1.88 Sell
07/17/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 2.18 0 Hold
07/18/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.17 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.4 Buy DCF
07/18/19 Kim Eng CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.8 Hold
07/18/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.92 Sell
07/18/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.25 Add

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Neutral DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.75 0.76 Hold
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.75 0.81 Buy DDM
01/28/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.75 0.74 Hold
01/28/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.75 0.85 Buy
02/15/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.71 0.75 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.72 0.81 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.72 0.7 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
04/26/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.745 0.88 Buy
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.745 0.75 Hold DCF
04/26/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
06/17/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.77 0.83 Buy DDM
06/19/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.79 0.75 Neutral
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.785 0.83 Buy

Stock calls for 18 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/18/19 CIMB AEM 1.04 1.23 Add PER10x FY20
07/18/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.17 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.4 Buy DCF
07/18/19 Kim Eng CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.8 Hold
07/18/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.92 Sell
07/18/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.25 Add
07/18/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.73 1.71 Hold DDM
07/18/19 CIMB Keppel DC Reit 1.73 1.67 Hold DDM
07/18/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.82 0.9 Buy
07/18/19 Lim & Tan Soilbuild Reit 0.61 0 Hold
07/18/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.5 1.82 Buy

A banking crisis is developing in Vietnam.

The US-China trade war is causing a banking crisis to develop in Vietnam.  Why?

In order to avoid the US-China trade tariffs, many businesses are shifting their manufacturing and production factories to Vietnam.  This relocation phenomenon has caused the ire of the US and Trump has imposed 456% on Vietnam's steels re-exports.  Trump looks ready to impose more tariffs against Vietnam for other goods.

As Vietnam has a very lax bank lending regulation, many foreign businesses borrow from local banks to build factories and ramp up their productions.  If the made-in-Vietnam products are taxed with additional tariffs by the US, Vietnam's exports will drop drastically and this will impact the banking industry in Vietnam because the non-performing loans will increase tremendously.

Vietnam, with just a population of 97m, won't be able to fight the trade war against the US and has to compromise to buy more US goods to avoid the additional tariffs.

A possible bank run at Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank has a simmering bank run situation now.  Why?

Although Deutsche Bank is an investment bank and not a retail bank, it is facing a simmering cash flow problem because many hedge fund managers are withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers are afraid that they won't be able to withdraw their funds if they don't act fast as they've heard of the massive withdrawal problem at Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers know that Deutsche Bank is not doing well now and has to retrench 18,000 employees.

Deutsche Bank is a bank that is too big to fail because it will affect the global banking system and is much bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.67 0.81 Buy
02/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.685 0.81 Buy PER11x FY19
02/21/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.69 0.96 Buy
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.67 0.67 Neutral PER11x FY19
02/27/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.675 0.97 Buy PER13x FY19
02/28/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.665 0.85 Buy DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.725 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.69 0.8 Buy DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.7 0.62 Neutral
05/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Hold
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.665 0.62 Neutral
06/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.615 0.81 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.63 1.01 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.605 0.75 Buy DCF

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date
Analyst
Company
Last
Target
Call
Valuation
02/21/19
DBS Vickers
Breadtalk
0.88
0.92
Hold
Sum of parts
02/21/19
DMG & Partners
Breadtalk
0.88
0.81
Neutral
Sum of parts
04/05/19
DMG & Partners
Breadtalk
0.87
0.81
Neutral

05/07/19
DBS Vickers
Breadtalk
0.835
0.92
Hold

05/08/19
DMG & Partners
Breadtalk
0.825
0.81
Neutral
Sum of parts
07/02/19
DMG & Partners
Breadtalk
0.75
0.81
Neutral

Biolidics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 CIMB Biolidics 0.27 0.32 Add EV/Sales 12x

Stock calls for 17 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/17/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.18 1.88 Sell
07/17/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 2.18 0 Hold
07/17/19 OCBC Keppel DC Reit 1.71 1.93 Buy
07/17/19 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 1.71 1.9 Buy DCF
07/17/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.885 0.94 Buy
07/17/19 Amfrasers Soilbuild Reit 0.615 0.609 Neutral DDM
07/17/19 DBS Vickers SPH Reit 1.11 1.2 Buy DCF
07/17/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.54 1.45 Sell DCF
07/17/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.83 4.26 Buy Sum of parts

Korea-Japan trade war has just begun! - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-says-unveil-plans-234039827.html

As expected, the US has sent a senior diplomat to be a mediator between Japan and South Korea.

The US will NEVER let this KR-JP trade war destroy its strategic alliance in the South China Sea.  The US needs Japan and South Korea to work together to contain China.  Therefore, the US will exert political pressures on both countries to resolve their issues.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/korea-japan-trade-war-has-just-begun.html

Singapore Nodx fell 17.3% in June 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-singapore-exports-drop-most-012835741.html
Year on year changes (YOY):
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/myanmar-nationals-stage-protest-outside-singapore-embassy-in-us-capital-080651137.html

Mynamar is staging a protest outside SG embassy in the USA.

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays.  After offending Vietnam and Cambodia, SG has moved on to offend Myanmar.  Maybe our government is too free nowadays to make our presence felt in ASEAN by offending other ASEAN members.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/many-analysts-were-dead-wrong-about.html

Best World - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.56 2.95 Buy DCF & PER18x
02/28/19 CIMB Best World 2.56 2.43 Reduce PER14.9x CY20
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.02 2.95 Buy
04/16/19 CLSA Best World 1.77 1.75 Sell Up from $1.29
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Best World 1.62 0 Cease Coverage Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.57 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
05/22/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.535 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.3 0.34 Neutral
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral DCF
03/19/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral
07/16/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.28 0.27 Neutral DCF