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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

President Xi has hardened his stance in the US-China trade war.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011186/xi-jinping-calls-new-long-march-dramatic-sign-china-preparing

President Xi has hardened his stance by rallying his nation for the new long march.  This is a dramatic sign that China won't relent in the US-China trade war and won't sign any humiliating trade deal.  This is significantly different from the previous meek stance put up by the Chinese.

Thus, the US can forget about bulldozing its way into China now.  The US-China trade talk has broken down officially now.

Will SIA seek compensation from Boeing?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/air-china-asks-boeing-compensation-041331381.html

Does SIA dare to seek compensation from Boeing for its business losses?

It will reflect badly on SIA as a public listed company when other airliners can seek compensations from Boeing.

Hutchison Port - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.26 0.22 Sell
02/13/19 DBS Vickers Hutchison Port 0.26 0.26 Hold DCF
02/25/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.235 0.22 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.24 0.22 Hold
04/30/19 DBS Vickers Hutchison Port 0.24 0.26 Hold

HRnetGroup - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.8 1.18 Buy DCF
02/25/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.795 1.06 Buy DCF
02/26/19 DBS Vickers HRnetGroup 0.8 1.05 Buy PER15x FY19, ex-cash
03/13/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.79 1.06 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB HRnetGroup 0.765 1.03 Add
05/07/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.77 1.06 Buy DCF
05/13/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.77 0.94 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DBS Vickers HRnetGroup 0.76 0.85 Hold PER16x FY19, ex-cash

Hotel Properties (HPL) - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Hotel Properties 3.76 0 Hold
04/17/19 OCBC Hotel Properties 3.88 4.74 Buy

Stock calls for 22 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/22/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.535 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19
05/22/19 phillip CNMC 0.2 0.31 Buy DCF
05/22/19 CIMB DBS 25.74 27.64 Hold
05/22/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.74 29.46 Buy
05/22/19 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.44 0.55 Neutral DCF
05/22/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.09 11.07 Hold
05/22/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.96 4.45 Buy DCF & PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20
05/22/19 Kim Eng UOB 24.83 28.97 Buy

China mother and daughter created a raucous at Bangkok airport

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7031753/Air-passenger-prevents-plane-leaving-wait-shopaholic-daughter.html

There is a reason for a social credit standing in China even though it is very invasive on the Chinese.  It is a good way for the communist government to control its citizens' unruly behaviours onshore and offshore.  We cannot blame the Chinese government for the pervasive public surveillance by using the social credit record system.  It will ban any unpleasant and undesirable citizens from taking public transportations such as HSR and Airliners in China to obtaining banking services.

These 2 ladies' behaviours will definitely lower their social credit ratings in China and will have difficulties flying overseas again after such a big hoo-ha.

Japan trade surplus fell 90% because of China.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-exports-fall-for-fifth-straight-month-2019-05-21

Japan trade surplus fell 90% with just a 6.3% drop in China shipments.  This shows that Japan is highly dependent on China's growth.

Tommy Koh wanted SG to be dependent on Japan instead of China.  Does this make any sense at all?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/tommy-koh-has-anti-china-mindset-and.html

Why does SG need to depend on Japan when SG can go directly to China?

Anti-US sentiment is simmering in China now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-social-media-users-rallying-032803080.html

If the anti-US sentiment is left unchecked, it will bite the US products and services really hard.

I must say that the communist government's campaign is working effectively.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-is-stirring-up-anti-us-sentiment.html

China will ban rare earth exports to US if US continues to bully China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/xi-s-trip-to-rare-earths-plant-stokes-talk-of-trade-retaliation

Currently, China produces more than 90% of the rare earth supply and this gives China the monopolistic power.

Rare earth materials are used in many electronic applications, batteries and military weapons.  Without rare earths, the US modern industries including defense contractors will suffer greatly.

The US will have to bow to China if China is to ban rare earth exports to the US.  It is not easy to find replacements for rare earth suppliers because the production process is highly toxic.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Hongkong Land - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Hongkong Land 6.92 7.86 Buy
03/01/19 DBS Vickers Hongkong Land 6.77 8.02 Buy RNAV (40% discount)
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Hongkong Land 6.97 8.02 Buy

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.71 0 Buy
04/26/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.8 0 Buy

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 Lim & Tan Ho Bee 2.51 0 Buy
03/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Ho Bee 2.5 2.79 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19 Lim & Tan Ho Bee 2.52 0 Buy

Stock calls for 21 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/21/19 phillip China Everbright 0.385 0.5 Buy PER9x
05/21/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.49 0.58 Buy Sum of parts, PER12.5x FY19, PB2.1x FY19
05/21/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.4 2.6 Buy
05/21/19 phillip Penguin 0.44 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19 phillip SATS 5.08 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.08 5.05 Hold
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.08 5.44 Buy DCF & PER22x FY20
05/21/19 phillip SHS 0.174 0 Cease coverage
05/21/19 OCBC SIA 9.3 11.02 Buy
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.3 9.6 Hold
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.3 10.8 Buy PB0.95x FY20
05/21/19 CIMB UMS 0.62 0.55 Reduce

US companies petition to Trump to stop the tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/nike-adidas-sign-letter-to-trump-urging-against-tariffs-on-footwear.html

The US says that China will be hurt more because of the tariffs and the US will win the trade war.

If this is true, why are the US companies complaining on behalf of China?

Are these US companies being paid by China government?

Singapore is slowing down rapidly.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-first-quarter-gdp-1-2-2019-growth-000244709--business.html

Singapore 1st QTR GDP growth is almost at a decade low.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html

When our government suddenly spoke for China, I knew something was amiss.  I expected the weak GDP number to surface soon after our FM's speech.

Do not subscribe to Luckin coffee ipo! Why? - Part 2

Luckin has fallen below its Ipo price of $17 in a few days.

We told you guys not to subscribe and we're proven right.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html


Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 2

Blue line: China A50
Black line: USD/CNY (RMB)

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html

As stated previously, China A50 and RMB have an inverse relationship.

Why?

The rationale is very simple.  When RMB depreciates, it will result in investors' forex losses and this will prompt investors to pull money out of China A50.  When the investors sell China A50, they will convert the RMB back into their local currencies and result in weakening RMB.

Therefore, if investors can predict the future RMB trajectory, they can predict the future movement of China A50.

RMB is expected to depreciate in a US-China trade war.  Therefore, the decline in China A50 is a known consequence.

Monday, May 20, 2019

The western semiconductor shares are falling.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chips-down-huawei-u-blacklisting-knocks-eu-semiconductor-090003209--finance.html

The western semiconductor shares are falling because of Trump.

These western chip-makers are losing the Chinese market permanently and no other market can make up for the losses.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/huawei-will-replace-us21b-chip-orders.html

The western chip-maker share prices are highly overvalued without Chinese market revenues.

Huawei has revealed its own mobile operating system (Hongmeng).

https://www.huaweicentral.com/hongmeng-is-huaweis-first-ever-self-developed-operating-system/

Many analysts didn't believe that Huawei had its own mobile system.  Huawei had just released the name of its operating system (Hongmeng) and started to develop it since 2012.  The US has underestimated the Chinese.  The Chinese have a saying - Always prepare for a rainy day!

Google will regret its move to restrict Huawei to use google because Hongmeng is developed by using Linux and not Java (Android).  This will prompt many developers to develop applications using Linux because it is a truly decentralized programming language.  Besides, Linux is widely used in the networking servers sector.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/it-will-be-hard-for-google-to-access.html

It will be hard for Google to access the Chinese market in the future.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-alphabet-exclusive/exclusive-google-suspends-some-business-with-huawei-after-trump-blacklist-source-idUSKCN1SP0NB

This proves that Google is just another state agent like MS.

Therefore, Huawei should focus on supporting another open-sourced mobile platform.  I would recommend Huawei to work with Linux mobile platform because Linux has built up the mobile platform and community already and it will sync with the desktop and server platforms without a hitch.  There also won't be any intrusive mobile advertisements like the android system.

https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/pureos-mobile/

Yes! I'm a Linux supporter and I would like my smartphone to be on Linux too.

South Korea is giving a stupid excuse to switch to linux.

https://www.engadget.com/2019/05/19/south-korea-linux-switch/?yptr=yahoo

South Korea is a developed and rich nation, unlike some developing countries.  Therefore, South Korea is switching to Linux because of security risks posed by Microsoft (MS).  Coincidentally, SK is dumping MS after our posting about MS security risk.  The IT cost is never a concern to SK because it pays a lot more to keep US forces in the country.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-going-to-impose-blanket-ban.html

SK just doesn't want to be held hostage by the US and give the NSA & FBI unbridled access to the sensitive intelligence through MS.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Will US attack Iran? Yes!

From my understanding of the US unilateralism culture, the US will launch some precision types of attacks against Iran.  In other words, the US will engage Iran in some restricted battles and not launch a full-scale war against Iran if history is a prologue.

Why?

The US will always engage wars with oil-rich countries and Iran happens to be an oil-producing nation.  The US sanctions against Iran will not yield the desired outcome that the US wanted.  Please see the example below.  Therefore, the US has decided to take some further action.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010478/iranian-fuel-oil-shipped-violation-us-sanctions-unloaded-china

The US has a plan to deploy 120,000 military personnel and aircraft carrier strike force to the Middle East and this is not a show of force to deter Iran from carrying some threats against US targets in the region.  This is the usual US modus operandi (Intelligence fabrication and battle preparation).

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/us-troops-middle-east-iran/index.html

https://www.apnews.com/c13d7c2ce4a1429bad83d5482f9193f3

The large deployment is similar to the force size deployed to attack Iraq in the past.  However, Iran is much larger than Iraq and the US will not fight the war with Iran on the ground but will launch air attacks to decimate the nuclear facilities and key installations.

The US will be able to tighten the sea surveillance and make things difficult for Iran to ship its oil with the large deployment.  However, Iran can still sell its oil through Turkey and Pakistan.  We must not forget that Pakistan has an oil pipeline that connects to China and China will continue to buy oil from Iran.  Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to stop Iran oil trading by land because Pakistan and Turkey are at loggerheads with the US.

In order to remove the threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US will definitely attack Iran to eliminate the threat permanently.  Although Iran and the US declared that they didn't want to fight with each other, both nations were just engaging in deceptions to distract each other but were, in fact, preparing for the ultimate battles.  After the restricted battles, the US will demand Iran to come to the negotiation table to avoid any further escalation.

I hope I'm wrong in my military analysis because I do not want to see this outcome since ordinary Iranians will suffer greatly in this "war".

Saturday, May 18, 2019

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 3

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-pboc/chinas-central-bank-wont-let-yuan-weaken-past-7-to-the-dollar-sources-idUSKCN1SN0NT

China's central bank has announced that it will defend the RMB at 7.  Technically speaking, the central bank will intervene at the 6.95-6.99 range.  What will the central bank do?

The central bank will continue to sell and stop buying the US treasuries to support the RMB.  The explanation had already been provided in our previous post.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_17.html


Baltic dry index - 1040

Today, Friday, May 17 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 8 points, reaching 1040 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
====================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 987


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Hong Kong pro-democracy activists are a bunch of ungrateful people!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-secretary-state-mike-pompeo-005842713.html

Why did I say that?

When HK was under UK's administration for 99 years, all the HK governors were appointed by the UK and the Hongkongers had no voting right for 99 years.  After the 1997 handover, these HK pro-democracy activists started to appear and clamour for voting right to select the HK governor.  Why?  It is pretty obvious that the western countries are behind this and these activists have sold their souls to the western paymasters.  These people are truly ungrateful.

Furthermore, the UK government emptied the HK's coffer before the handover in 1997.  After the 1997 handover, the asian financial crisis happened a few months later and HK was defenseless as it had no money to fight off the speculators in the currency and stock markets.  China's GDP in 1997 was below US$1t and its foreign reserve was around US$150b.

During that time, China infused HKMA with more than US$80b without hesitation to fight off the currency and stock predators.  HK would become a 3rd world province if not for China's generous help especially when China didn't have a huge coffer (only US$150b) in 1997.

After crossing the hardest time in 1997, the HK activists started to disown China? What kind of moral values the HK activists are trying to inculcate to the next generation? Is it right to burn the bridge after crossing it?  Can we disown our parents after getting help from them?

HMI - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip HMI 0.540 0.77 Buy
02/13/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.535 0.73 Buy DCF
02/14/19 phillip HMI 0.550 0.77 Buy DCF
05/14/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.540 0.68 Buy DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19 phillip HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB HMI 0.530 0.68 Add DCF
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/16/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.545 0.66 Buy DCF

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 0.965 0.68 Sell PB0.8x
02/22/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.05 1.12 Hold PER10x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.14 1.22 Hold PB1.5x
03/13/19 Lim & Tan Hi-P 1.75 0 Avoid overvalued
04/09/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.63 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
05/06/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Haw Par 12.39 0 Buy

Stock calls for 17 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.7 0.62 Neutral
05/17/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF, PB1.15x
05/17/19 phillip City Developments 8.63 11.82 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
05/17/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.54 2.72 Accumulate DCF, PER16.8x FY19
05/17/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.61 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.25 Neutral
05/17/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.55 Add DDM
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.66 0.83 Buy DCF
05/17/19 OCBC SATS 5.22 5.35 Hold
05/17/19 phillip Sembcorp Industries 2.55 3.75 Buy Sum of parts
05/17/19 CIMB SIA 9.4 10.14 Hold PB0.9x CY19
05/17/19 Phillip Singtel 3.14 3.31 Accumulate Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20
05/17/19 Amfrasers Uni-Asia 1.13 1.86 Buy Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19
05/17/19 DBS Vickers Yanlord 1.44 1.47 Hold PER6x FY19/20
05/17/19 CIMB Yongnam 0.169 0.33 Add

Huawei will replace the US$21b chip orders with its own chips eventually.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huaweis-hisilicon-says-long-preparing-u-ban-scenario-053715518--finance.html

The US chip makers will lose US$21b orders from Huawei eventually because of the US sanctions.  The other Chinese telecom and mobile phone makers will also replace foreign chips with China made chips and the US will lose the entire China market eventually.

We've stated before that the global semiconductor slowdown was permanent in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Singapore Nodx fell at a double digit pace again in April 2019.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/17/singapore-april-exports-slump-10-year-on-year/

Year on year changes (YOY):

April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%


No wonder SG is trying to get cozy with China now because the bad number will be reflected in the GDP data soon.

China is stirring up anti-US sentiment in its citizens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-war-only-us-022837025.html

China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.

This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.

Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 2

Let me accentuate this again.  The selloff of the US treasuries by China is not a retaliatory move!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html

US economic update!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/atlanta-fed-forecast-for-gdp-growth-sliding-rate-cut-chances-surging.html

Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast.  For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.

Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%.  This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html

We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Why did SG have a change of heart? A real change or a deception?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/wow-singapore-is-trying-to-get-into.html

Will the Chinese believe in SG?

This change of heart comes too late.

SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one.  Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG.  Why not?

As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises.  The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.

SG knows that it has to rely on China now.  Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never.  Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust.  If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.

Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.097 0.19 Buy
03/04/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.112 0.17 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.081 0.08 Neutral DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/04/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.25 0.34 Add PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.245 0.36 Buy
03/07/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.235 0.3 Buy PER10x
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy

Stock calls for 16 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/16/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.4 1.5 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.58 Hold PER10x
05/16/19 Phillip APTV 0.178 0.16 Reduce EV/Ebitda11x
05/16/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 8.54 9.2 Neutral RNAV (40% discount)
05/16/19 OCBC City Developments 8.54 10.68 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB City Developments 8.54 10.66 Add
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.59 Hold DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40
05/16/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.4 Hold
05/16/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.77 Buy
05/16/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.7 1.53 Neutral PER13x FY20
05/16/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.7 1.93 Buy PER17x
05/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.7 1.95 Buy DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.7 1.7 Hold Buy @ $1.50
05/16/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.545 0.66 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.405 0.51 Buy PER23x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.405 0.41 Hold Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.405 0.52 Add
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.505 0.6 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 0.975 1.03 Hold PER16.8x FY19/20
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.52 0.63 Buy PER21x FY19
05/16/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.52 0.58 Add
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.13 3.35 Neutral Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Singtel 3.13 3.59 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB Singtel 3.13 3.4 Add Sum of parts
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.13 3.58 Buy
05/16/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.13 3.37 Hold Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC ST Engineering 3.9 4.22 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.9 4.5 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.9 4.43 Add PER22x FY20
05/16/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.64 0.45 Fully Valued PER8x FY19/20
05/16/19 CIMB UOB 25.1 29.58 Add GGM
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.5 3.94 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.5 3.66 Hold PB0.95x
05/16/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.5 3.96 Add Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.44 1.68 Buy PER5x

China has started to sell US treasuries.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-in-nearly-two-and-a-half-years-idUSKCN1SL2U4

This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.

However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.

Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption.  A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

Wow! Singapore is trying to get into China's good books.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-urges-us-to-accept-chinas-rise-spare-other-nations-035332068.html

Wow! I can't believe this is coming from Singapore.  Singapore has spoken in favour of China for the first time.

Look like SG has woken up because it knows its economic growth will be badly affected soon in the US-China trade war as China's imports are dwindling.  The ugly figures will show up in SG economic data soon if the US-China trade war is prolonged.


Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts