We had projected only a 25bps cut in the September FOMC meeting but the Fed did a 50bps cut instead. However, we've been vindicated now.
Well, we believe that the US has fudged its employment data. What's our basis?
First of all, the Atlanta GDPnow had revised down its GDP projection just prior to this ebullience employment data.
Next, the manufacturing employment has a high correlation to the total employment data and the PMI employment is at 43.9 (contractionary zone).
In view of the above, we can only deduce that the US is fudging its employment data again.
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