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Monday, February 17, 2020

Japfa - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/29/19CIMBJapfa0.820.9AddSum of parts
01/30/19Kim EngJapfa0.810.99Buy
03/01/19CIMBJapfa0.7650.9AddSum of parts
03/05/19UOB Kay HianJapfa0.7050.98BuySum of parts, PER10.7x FY19
03/05/19DBS VickersJapfa0.7050.8BuySum of parts (15% discount), PER11.4x FY19
03/14/19CIMBJapfa0.7150.63ReduceSum of parts
03/21/19Kim EngJapfa0.651.05BuySum of parts
04/02/19Kim EngJapfa0.6651.05Buy
05/03/19UOB Kay HianJapfa0.6050.73BuySum of parts
05/03/19DBS VickersJapfa0.6050.61HoldSum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/27/19Kim EngJapfa0.5750.93BuySum of parts
07/31/19UOB Kay HianJapfa0.5150.48HoldSum of parts, Buy @ $0.42
08/01/19Kim EngJapfa0.510.73BuySum of parts
08/05/19DBS VickersJapfa0.50.53HoldSum of parts (10% discount), PER12.5x FY19
09/13/19Kim EngJapfa0.4850.73BuySum of parts
11/01/19UOB Kay HianJapfa0.490.5HoldSum of parts, Buy @ $0.44
11/01/19DBS VickersJapfa0.490.53Hold
11/01/19CIMBJapfa0.490.56Add
11/20/19CIMBJapfa0.610.7AddPER12x FY21
01/20/20UOB Kay HianJapfa0.640.8Buy
01/31/20CIMBJapfa0.560.69Add
01/31/20Kim EngJapfa0.560.72Buy

Japan Foods - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/12/19AmfrasersJapan Foods0.4150.57HoldDCF
03/08/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.430.45Neutral
04/05/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.4350.45Neutral
05/22/19AmfrasersJapan Foods0.440.55NeutralDCF
05/23/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.440.4Hold
06/06/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.430.4Neutral
08/22/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.4350.4NeutralSum of parts
11/08/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.4350.4NeutralSum of parts
11/11/19AmfrasersJapan Foods0.4250.46Neutral
12/02/19AmfrasersJapan Foods0.430.46Neutral
12/11/19DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.4250.4Neutral

Stock calls for 17 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/17/20DMG & PartnersAvi-Tech0.390.5BuyDCF
02/17/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.182.25NeutralDCF, PER18x FY20
02/17/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.182.15HoldBuy @ $1.95
02/17/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.182.26HoldDCF & PER17.7x FY20
02/17/20CIMBComfortdelgro2.182.08HoldBuy @ $1.88
02/17/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.660.65Sell
02/17/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldBuy @ $0.60
02/17/20Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.660.7HoldDDM
02/17/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldDDM
02/17/20Kim EngFrasers Hospitality Trust0.690.8Buy
02/17/20Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.3650Buy
02/17/20phillipSATS4.434.45NeutralDCF, PER19x FY21
02/17/20PhillipSingtel3.223.18NeutralSum of parts
02/17/20PhillipThai Beverage0.7850.95BuySum of parts
02/17/20DMG & PartnersThai Beverage0.7850.92BuySum of parts
02/17/20UOB Kay HianThai Beverage0.7850.9HoldBuy @ $0.75
02/17/20CIMBThai Beverage0.7850.9AddSum of parts
02/17/20DBS VickersYoma0.3250.5Buy

Singapore's January Nodx fell by 3.3%

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-exports-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-covid-19-impact-fall-by-33-in

Year on year changes (YOY):

January 2020: - 3.3%
December 2019: 2.4%
November 2019: - 5.9%
October 2019: - 12.3%
September 2019: -8.1%
August 2019: - 8.9%
July 2019: -11.2%
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy. - Part 2

https://www.albanyherald.com/news/business/small-businesses-drive-china-s-economy-the-coronavirus-outbreak-could/article_c2c842b8-47d2-5ce1-8b26-d5ec29a6ba1b.html

85% of SMEs in China can only last for 3 months and many bankruptcies will happen in Q2 2020.

This was the reason why we had stated in our earlier post below that the Q2 would be worse than Q1 because the full economic impacts would be reflected in Q2.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/beijing-shanghai-and-chongqing-are-in.html

Since these SMEs are not listed publicly, they do not affect the stock markets in China.  Therefore, the stabilization of the stock markets does not reflect the true economic situation in China.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Red alert: A major covid-19 virus outbreak may happen in Japan.

Numerous local transmissions have been reported in Japan and Japan may be facing a major covid-19 virus outbreak.  It might become the next Wuhan.

Japan had no experience in dealing with SARS in 2003 because it managed to avoid the SARS outbreak.  Therefore, it doesn't know how to handle the covid-19 virus outbreak on its land now.

Furthermore, Japan doesn't have adequate medical supplies for this virus outbreak because it doesn't expect any local transmission.

If Japan becomes the next Wuhan, its stock markets will collapse.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Baltic dry index - 425

Today, Friday, February 14 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 4 points, reaching 425 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The "Big" dengue outbreak in Singapore will paralyze the healthcare services.

https://sg.style.yahoo.com/big-dengue-outbreak-could-infect-051531391.html

Singapore must be able to contain the next "Big" dengue outbreak or else it will paralyze our healthcare services.  Why?

SG is running low on blood supply now and cannot afford to have any major blood transfusion incident.  A major dengue outbreak will deplete the current blood supply and take away many lives.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/donors-needed-singapore-blood-supply-critically-low-amid-covid-19-outbreak-150246258.html

SG must be super vigilant now.

Becareful when you travel to the US because of the 2020 US flu.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html

Many foreign media like to prance upon the chance to report any misgiving about China but they are afraid to report anything bad about the US for fear of riposte especially sanction or tariff.

The 2020 US flu has infected more than 19m Americans and killed more than 10,000 people in the US.  The US flu virus outbreak is not widely reported in the world because most media like to report bad things about China.

Therefore, anybody travelling to the US must get a flu jab first to reduce the chance of getting infected in the US.  A flu jab might not be a foolproof prophylactic measure because there are many variants of flu but it is still worth to take the jab.  Just avoid the US and China if possible is the best measure. 

Friday, February 14, 2020

The infected Chinese are dropping dead on China streets, in the eateries and offices.

China government is hiding the true situation and death rate.  These leaked videos are showing the severity of the virus outbreak in China.

Jadason - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19CIMBJadason0.020.066Add
05/13/19CIMBJadason0.0380.059AddPB1x CY19