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Thursday, February 7, 2019

Stock calls for 7 February 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.05 0.06 Hold PB0.3x FY19
02/07/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.675 Buy
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts
02/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.785 0.93 Buy
02/07/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.82 2.21 Buy

This year will be a painful year for Crypto!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-universe-may-round-pain-022846955.html

The most optimistic crypto proponent has thrown in the towel and given up on its unrealistic target for bitcoin.

Bitcoin prices won't recover to its glorious peak as more people get educated about crypto.  Please read our post below for more information.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html

The crypto developers have been trying to rectify the security and structural flaws by switching from a POW (proof of work) to POS (proof of stake) system because POW consumes too much energy resulting in energy profligacy.  However, the developers are missing out the fundamental issues of money.

Money is a derivative of the economy and its supply cannot be limited or else it will be abandoned like the gold standard because of its finite supply.  Why is this so?

Money supply has to be able to shrink or expand to manage the economic growth because of inflation and deflation.  Under normal circumstances, there is an incremental natural rate of growth in the economy because of new services and products being created which will increase the economic size.  Consequently, the money supply has to be increased for the economy to function properly.  Likewise, the money supply has to be reduced when the economy is having a recession.

If a digital monetary structure has a limited supply, it won't be able to function like what the fiat money can do.  Therefore, the cryptocurrency will never become a legitimate and real currency.




Monday, February 4, 2019

Golden Agri - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.39 0.37 Hold
02/28/18 CIMB Golden Agri 0.36 0.31 Reduce PER15x FY19
02/28/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.36 0.37 Hold
02/28/18 Credit Suisse Golden Agri 0.36 0.35 Underperform
03/07/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.345 0.31 Hold
03/08/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.36 0.37 Hold
04/06/18 CIMB Golden Agri 0.345 0.31 Reduce PER15x
04/13/18 DBS Vickers Golden Agri 0.34 0.39 Not Rated
05/16/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.35 0.26 Sell PER14x FY18
05/16/18 CIMB Golden Agri 0.35 0.31 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/16/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.35 0.34 Hold
06/21/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.33 0.26 Sell
06/27/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.34 Hold
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.305 0.26 Sell
07/11/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.29 0.3 Hold PER17x FY19
08/15/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.28 0.26 Hold PER17.5x FY19
08/16/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.16 Sell
08/16/18 CIMB Golden Agri 0.28 0.25 Reduce Sum of parts (20% discount)
09/26/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.24 0.24 Hold PER16x FY19
10/08/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.265 0.16 Sell
10/11/18 DBS Vickers Golden Agri 0.255 0.33 Not Rated DCF
10/29/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
11/08/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.26 0.16 Sell
11/13/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.245 0.24 Hold
11/14/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell PER11x FY19
11/14/18 CIMB Golden Agri 0.245 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (20% discount)
12/10/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.255 0.2 Sell
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39

GL Ltd - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/18 UOB Kay Hian GL Ltd 0.865 1.19 Buy
08/27/18 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.77 0 Buy
10/08/18 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.775 0 Buy

Geo Energy - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/19/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.225 0.47 Buy PER10x
06/04/18 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.225 0.3 Buy DCF, PER6x FY18
06/05/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.225 0.41 Buy PER10x
07/06/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.225 0.41 Buy
08/28/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.22 0.34 Buy PER10x
09/07/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.22 0.34 Buy
11/26/18 phillip Geo Energy 0.205 0.245 Buy PER10x FY19
12/04/18 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.178 0.21 Hold DCF
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy

Stock calls for 4 February 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.42 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.65 Buy DCF
02/04/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.405 0.41 Neutral DCF
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.74 0.82 Buy
02/04/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.515 0.57 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.58 3.7 Buy
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.59 2.4 Buy
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Post 0.965 1.04 Hold Sum of parts
02/04/19 CIMB Singapore Post 0.965 1.03 Hold DCF
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Singapore Post 0.965 0.92 Hold DCF
02/04/19 Lim & Tan Singapore Post 0.965 0 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.42 1.82 Buy

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Chinese vice premier, Liu He, performed very badly as a trade negotiator.

Liu He was just like a bad student sitting in a session with his school principal.  He was so meek in front of Trump and he didn't sound confident in his short speech.  Liu He didn't even dare to correct Trump when Trump heard the wrong order of 5m tonnes per day from his mouth.  It should be 5m tonnes today!

I prefer Wang Yi.  I believe Wang Yi will perform much better than Liu He as a trade negotiator.  No wonder China is losing the bargaining power in this trade talk.  President Xi should send Wang Yi and not Liu He as the latter did very badly.



Saturday, February 2, 2019

EU has become a protectionist now!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-apos-steel-tariffs-forced-114159985.html

To prevent trade diversion, the EU has imposed steel quotas to prevent goods dumping.  This is not unexpected because we expected it and posted our analysis in July 2018.  The EU chose to impose quotas instead of tariffs.  No matter what, this is a protectionist measure.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/us-china-trade-war-has-started.html

Economic recession is coming!

The baltic dry index chart is showing a significant downward trajectory from its recent high of about 1800 to 645 now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/baltic-dry-index-645.html

In a nutshell, the BDI is a shipping and trade index of raw materials using different types of vessels.  The BDI has a positive correlation to the world economic growth and reflects the economic conditions.  The BDI is currently having a downward trajectory which means the world trade is declining significantly recently.

Baltic dry index - 645

Today, Friday, February 01 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 23 points, reaching 645 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 1045

HOUSTON, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- The number of active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 14 to 1,045 this week, or 99 more than that this time last year, according to the weekly data released by the Baker Hughes on Friday.
The number of rigs operating in U.S. oil fields fell by 15 to 847 this week, and more than half of them were located in the Permian Basin region of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The number of gas drilling rigs grew by one to 198 rigs.
The Houston-based oilfield services company reported that the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 13 to 1,025. The number of inland waters drilling rigs stayed level at one rig, while the number of offshore drilling rigs fell by one to 19.
The number of directional drilling rigs decreased by two to 57, the number of horizontal drilling rigs fell by seven to 925, while the number of vertical drilling rigs decreased by five to 63.
None of the U.S. states had an increase in the active drilling rig counts. The U.S. state of Alaska and Oklahoma led the decrease with four rigs. Texas decreased by three rigs to 514.
U.S. oil prices rose on Friday. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery rose 1.47 U.S. dollars to settle at 55.26 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for March contract rose 0.89 dollar to close at 62.79 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, February 1, 2019

Genting - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/05/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.34 1.51 Buy
02/07/18 CIMB Genting 1.27 1.45 Add
02/26/18 Kim Eng Genting 1.3 1.46 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
02/26/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.3 1.3 Hold EV/Ebitda10.4x FY18, Buy @ $1.15
02/26/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.3 1.49 Buy DCF
02/26/18 DMG & Partners Genting 1.3 1.34 Neutral DCF
02/26/18 OCBC Genting 1.3 1.45 Buy FCFE
02/26/18 CIMB Genting 1.3 1.49 Add EV/Ebitda12x FY19
02/26/18 Nomura Genting 1.3 1.52 Buy
03/05/18 CIMB Genting 1.15 1.49 Add EV/Ebitda12x FY19
04/05/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.03 1.3 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x FY18
04/06/18 CIMB Genting 1.08 1.4 Add EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
04/10/18 Kim Eng Genting 1.14 1.46 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
05/11/18 CIMB Genting 1.16 1.4 Add EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
05/11/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.16 1.38 Buy Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda10.3x FY18
05/11/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.16 1.49 Buy DCF
05/11/18 OCBC Genting 1.16 1.45 Buy FCFE
05/11/18 Nomura Genting 1.16 1.52 Buy
05/14/18 DMG & Partners Genting 1.28 1.42 Buy DCF
06/05/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.26 1.49 Buy
06/08/18 CIMB Genting 1.25 1.4 Add
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.21 1.38 Buy
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.21 1.49 Buy
07/23/18 Kim Eng Genting 1.28 1.46 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
07/26/18 CIMB Genting 1.29 1.44 Add EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
08/06/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.23 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
08/06/18 OCBC Genting 1.23 1.39 Buy FCFE
08/06/18 CIMB Genting 1.23 1.44 Add EV/Ebitda15.5x FY19
08/07/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.13 1.55 Buy DCF
10/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.91 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
11/05/18 DBS Vickers Genting 0.945 1.55 Buy DCF, EV/Ebitda12x FY19
11/08/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.915 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
11/09/18 Kim Eng Genting 0.89 1.29 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY18
11/09/18 DMG & Partners Genting 0.89 1.42 Buy
11/09/18 CIMB Genting 0.89 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda10x FY19
11/09/18 OCBC Genting 0.89 1.39 Buy FCFE
11/15/18 DMG & Partners Genting 0.925 1.23 Buy DCF, EV/Ebitda9x
12/14/18 DMG & Partners Genting 1.01 1.23 Buy
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19

Fu Yu - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/16/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.186 0.2 Neutral DCF
06/27/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.171 0.2 Neutral
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.174 0.22 Buy DCF
09/28/18 CIMB Fu Yu 0.176 0.17 Hold PB0.8x
11/15/18 CIMB Fu Yu 0.17 0.17 Hold PB0.8x
11/20/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.182 0.23 Buy
11/27/18 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.189 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda5.3x FY19
12/04/18 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.194 0.27 Buy
12/14/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.189 0.23 Buy
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x

Frencken - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/18 Amfrasers Frencken 0.67 0.72 Hold PER12x FY18
03/07/18 Amfrasers Frencken 0.63 0.72 Buy PER12x FY18
05/11/18 UOB Kay Hian Frencken 0.54 0.79 Buy

Stock calls for 1 February 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.33 2.74 Add DCF
02/01/19 phillip DBS 23.92 29.02 Buy
02/01/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.8 Buy DDM
02/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Buy
02/01/19 phillip OCBC 11.51 13.7 Buy
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.59 3.2 Buy
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.6 1.83 Hold
02/01/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.485 0.65 Buy DCF
02/01/19 OCBC Starhill 0.715 0.75 Buy
02/01/19 phillip UOB 25.19 32.52 Buy

First company to delist from SGX in 2019. More to come!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/cityneon-to-delist-on-feb-1-9am

Goodbye Cityneon!

There will be more to come!

This is because SGX is fast becoming a derivatives market instead of a securities market.  As the securities' liquidity dwindles, companies will become less interested to list on SGX as a low liquidity market always gives a low valuation for the IPOs and listed companies.

Indonesia has declared overtly that it wants to snag Singapore transshipment businesses.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/indonesia-eyes-60-billion-investment-singapore-backyard-025404112.html

Indonesia is investing 60B to boost its Batam's infrastructure and size to snag SG's transshipment businesses.

Sigh! We are really under-siege from Malaysia and Indonesia.

What can we do to protect ourselves? We need to develop a cozy relationship with China for our own economic benefits or else we'll run into economic repressions caused by our unfriendly neighbours.

US and China proclaim major progress in trade talk but nothing is revealed.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-us-china-trade-talks-going-well-150055209.html

Both countries (US & China) try to sugarcoat their trade talk communiques by stating major progress.  However, both countries have not released the progress details.  This makes me wonder whether there is real progress between the 2 countries or not.  Maybe this is a delaying tactic to appease the financial markets and to arrange for the 2 presidents to meet to renegotiate the deal.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

The truth behind the ECRL cancellation.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-cccc-ecrl-malaysia-rail-project-negotiate-cost-20-billion-11189898

The china construction cost for the ECRL was already the lowest under the OBR initiative because of China's expertise and technology.  There is no way another country can build the ECRL at a much lower cost than China.  Therefore, the Malaysian government is disseminating fake news about China offering close to 50% discount for the ECRL construction.  If China really did offer close to 50% discount, there would be no reason for Malaysia not to accept it.

The real reason the Malaysian government cancelled the ECRL project was that China bypassed the Malaysia government and paid directly to its construction firms offshore.  The fund never reached the Malaysian shore because China knew that the fund would go missing and its construction firms would not be able to receive the full construction costs.

The Chinese know how corrupted the Malaysian government officials are and refuse to transfer the fund to Malaysia but choose to pay directly offshore.  This offshore payment arrangement annoys Mahathir because he and his lackeys cannot touch the fund at all.

Frasers Property - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/18 Lim & Tan Frasers Property 2.08 0 Buy
02/12/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.96 2.4 Add RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.96 2.35 Buy RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
04/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.96 2.35 Buy
05/11/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.95 2.4 Add
07/06/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.67 2.35 Buy
07/09/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.58 1.9 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.71 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.71 2.02 Add RNAV (35% discount)
11/12/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.62 2.08 Add RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.63 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.74 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)