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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

The HK rioters cannot organize large protests anymore.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protests-crowds-shrink-092511072.html

We've stated this before in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-is-hong-kongs-future-now.html

The HK rioters can no longer organize large protests anymore because they lack funds and citizens' support.  The ordinary residents have given up on these rioters because they've seen how the rioters terrorize ordinary people.

Penguin - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/26/19 phillip Penguin 0.45 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19 phillip Penguin 0.44 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19 CIMB Penguin 0.445 0.72 Add PB1x FY19
08/07/19 phillip Penguin 0.495 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Penguin 0.62 0.85 Buy PER7.6x FY2020
11/08/19 CIMB Penguin 0.66 0.81 Add PB1x FY20
11/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Penguin 0.66 0.85 Buy
11/11/19 phillip Penguin 0.7 0.93 Buy PER5x FY20 (ex-cash)

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.8 3.1 Buy
03/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.88 3.25 Buy DDM
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.92 3.25 Buy DDM
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.89 3.25 Buy
07/31/19 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 3.06 0 Hold
08/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 3.06 3.25 Buy
08/01/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 3.06 3.35 Buy
10/31/19 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 3.24 0 Hold
11/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 3.27 3.58 Buy DDM
11/01/19 CIMB Parkway Life 3.27 3.26 Hold

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Pacific Century 0.385 0 Buy

Stock calls for 4 December 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
12/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.01 2.3 Buy
12/04/19 phillip DBS 24.98 27.3 Accumulate
12/04/19 UOB Kay Hian IHH Healthcare 1.74 1.94 Buy Sum of parts, Ringgit $5.93 target price
12/04/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.23 1.45 Buy
12/04/19 phillip OCBC 10.68 11.7 Accumulate
12/04/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.56 0.6 Buy
12/04/19 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.83 2.15 Buy
12/04/19 phillip UOB 25.54 27.8 Accumulate

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.183 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.173 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19
08/08/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.145 0.15 Hold PB0.6x
11/07/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.21 0.22 Hold PB1x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy
09/24/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.305 0.43 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
09/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Oxley 0.31 0.64 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
10/02/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.32 0.43 Buy
10/15/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.325 0.43 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
10/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Oxley 0.34 0.5 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.345 0.43 Buy RNAV (45% discount)

Overseas Edu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.33 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.3 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.3 0.48 Buy DDM & DCF
08/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.285 0.46 Buy
09/11/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.29 0 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.285 0.46 Buy

Stock calls for 3 December 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
12/03/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 2.97 3.35 Buy DDM
12/03/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.13 25.8 Neutral
12/03/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.71 1.68 Take Profit PB1.05x
12/03/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.71 1.71 Add
12/03/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.24 1.31 Add
12/03/19 DMG & Partners Jumbo 0.37 0.44 Buy DCF
12/03/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 10.75 11.5 Neutral
12/03/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 10.75 11.5 Hold
12/03/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.46 3.72 Hold Sum of parts
12/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.89 0.9 Hold Sum of parts
12/03/19 Amfrasers Uni-Asia 0.73 1.24 Outperform Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20
12/03/19 DBS Vickers UOB 25.77 29.2 Buy
12/03/19 DMG & Partners UOB 25.77 29.5 Buy
12/03/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.79 0 Buy

China has sanctioned the US over HK issues.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1171990.shtml

We had stated in July 2019 that NED was involved in engineering the HK protests.  It's great to see that China sanctioned the US over the HK issues.

China still can escalate its action by restricting the number of US embassy employees in HK since the US has overwhelming embassy employees of around 1,000.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-did-us-and-taiwan-engineer-hong.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html

We've also stated other agencies connected to NED in HK.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-revealed-their.html

The November ISM PMI has declined again.





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The prices paid increased to 46.7 from 45.5 because the producers reduced local raw material and imported more from abroad.  The PMI decreased to 48.1 and was in contraction mode for 4 consecutive months.

The new order decreased because of a reduction in new export order.  The previous new export order (significant increment) was just an aberration.  The reduction in customers’ inventories was due to the fulfillment of the existing orders and, thus, the backlog of order also decreased.  The producers still increased  their production by 2.9 so that they could continue to increase the customers’ inventories to fulfill existing orders.  However, the manufacturing employment deteriorated and this was a big concern because it could reflect the overall employment in the US (see chart below).  This reduction in employment meant that the producers were not very optimistic about their businesses and the willingness to hire and train workers declined.



In conclusion, the de-Americanization in China supply china was hurting the US manufacturing industry and the USA’s anti-China stance was helping China to expand its manufacturing industry.


http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/china-pmi-had-expanded-as-we-had.html

China PMI had expanded as we had predicted.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201912/t20191202_1712936.html

We predicted in September 2019 (See below) that China PMI would expand soon and it really did in November 2019.  Why were we so confident?

Well, our rationale was very simple.  It was the US's anti-China stance that caused China's PMI to be in an expansionary mode.  How come?  The US's anti-China stance caused the de-americanization in China's supply chain which caused the local manufacturing industry to ramp up production to replace the US supplies.  Therefore, this increment would be reflected in China's PMI eventually and this growth would just be a matter of time.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

Monday, December 2, 2019

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Soochow SSD OUE Lippo HC 0.066 0.088 Buy Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.67 0.85 Add DDM
01/16/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.685 0.79 Buy
01/30/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.695 0.85 Buy DCF
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.82 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.77 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.76 Take Profit Accept offer
04/09/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.85 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.85 Add
05/03/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.85 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.68 0.76 Take Profit
07/04/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.76 Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.49 0.5 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.49 0.6 Buy DCF
02/04/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.515 0.57 Hold
02/08/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.51 0.6 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.52 0.6 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.51 0.57 Hold
05/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.5 0.57 Hold
10/04/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.54 0.59 Buy
10/04/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.54 0.61 Hold
11/15/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.54 0.6 Buy DCF
11/19/19 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.545 0.535 Hold
11/19/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.545 0.57 Hold DDM

Stock calls for 2 December 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
12/02/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.7 0.67 Outperform
12/02/19 Amfrasers ARA Hospitality 0.855 0.99 Outperform DDM
12/02/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.68 4.2 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
12/02/19 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.68 4.2 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
12/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitaland 3.68 3.8 Hold
12/02/19 Amfrasers China Sunsine 1.03 1.2 Outperform DCF
12/02/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.35 2.61 Outperform PER19x FY20
12/02/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.525 0.61 Outperform Sum of parts
12/02/19 CIMB DBS 25.25 28.29 Hold
12/02/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.25 29.92 Buy
12/02/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.525 0.61 outperform DDM
12/02/19 Amfrasers EC World Reit 0.745 0.84 outperform DDM
12/02/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.89 0.93 outperform PER10x FY20
12/02/19 Amfrasers IFS Capital 0.23 0.3 Outperform PB0.6x FY20
12/02/19 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.43 0.46 Neutral
12/02/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.965 1.03 outperform
12/02/19 CIMB OCBC 10.78 11.94 Hold
12/02/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.78 11.26 Hold
12/02/19 CIMB UOB 25.82 29.1 Add
12/02/19 Kim Eng UOB 25.82 30.5 Buy

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1528

Today, Friday, November 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 61 points, reaching 1528 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 802


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, November 29, 2019

OUE - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 OCBC OUE 1.66 2.32 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC OUE 1.79 2.32 Buy
11/21/19 OCBC OUE 1.49 1.69 Buy

Olam - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/26/19 Lim & Tan Olam 1.82 0 Hold