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Monday, March 18, 2019

Riverstone - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/18 CIMB Riverstone 1.04 1.28 Add PER18.6x FY19
02/26/18 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.04 1.27 Buy PER16x FY19
02/26/18 Kim Eng Riverstone 1.04 1.22 Buy PER18x FY18
05/09/18 DBS Vickers Riverstone 0.985 1.27 Buy
05/09/18 Lim & Tan Riverstone 0.985 0 Hold
05/14/18 CIMB Riverstone 1 1.28 Add
08/08/18 CIMB Riverstone 1.1 1.28 Add PER16.7x FY19
08/08/18 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.1 1.25 Buy PER16x FY19
08/20/18 CIMB Riverstone 1.11 1.3 Add PER16.7x FY19
11/05/18 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.18 1.17 Hold PER16x FY19
11/05/18 CIMB Riverstone 1.18 1.3 Add PER16.7x CY19
02/27/19 CIMB Riverstone 1.1 1.22 Add PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.1 1.19 Hold PER16x FY19

Religare Health Trust - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/18 CIMB Religare Health Trust 0.83 0.92 Hold DDM
03/20/18 DBS Vickers Religare Health Trust 0.775 0.85 Hold
06/14/18 CIMB Religare Health Trust 0.765 0.81 Hold DDM

Stock calls for 18 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.72 0.81 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.98 1.86 Neutral
03/18/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.44 3.98 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.28 2.19 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.5 Neutral
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Reit 1.23 1.06 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.77 Buy
03/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.88 3.25 Buy DDM
03/18/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.52 0 Hold
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.93 1.9 Neutral
03/18/19 OCBC UOL 6.45 8.45 Buy RNAV

Singapore Nodx gained 4.9% in February 2019

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-non-oil-exports-back-in-the-black-in-february-defying-economists

Although the economists get it wrong for Feb 2019, one month data do not make a trend.

Year on year changes (YOY):
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/singapore-nodx-fell-101-in-january-2019.html

The semiconductor is facing a collapse.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/semiconductor-rally-faces-apos-collapse-182441248.html

This analyst has put up a very bearish outcome for the semiconductor industry.

This is not surprising as we've stated a gloomy outcome too.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Yuuzoo is the next company to collapse after Hyflux.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/yuuzoo-ceo-quits-says-company-234003509.html

Lim & Tan securities firm has been warning about this company.  It issued a fraud alert as early as in 2017 on this company.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/yuuzoo-stock-calls.html

A real company business operation won't be affected by a share trading suspension because the suspension has no effect on the physical operation unless the company has fraudulent business activities which require the share capital market for fundraising to sustain its businesses.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Bitcoin price spikes are caused by the Philippines' investors.

The recent bitcoin price spikes are caused by the Philippines' investors.

How did we know? Our blog statistics are showing huge spikes in pageviews from the Philippines for bitcoin and crypto searches for the past few days and they are our top viewers now.

Look like they will be the next to be ensnared by the "pump and dump" tactics.

Baltic dry index - 677

Today, Thursday, March 14 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 23 points, reaching 677 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1026

The U.S. rig count declined, albeit slightly, this week according to weekly data from Baker Hughes, a GE Company.
The nation’s oil rigs dropped by one while the gas rig count remained flat.
This is the fourth consecutive week of rig count declines. Last week, the U.S. dropped a total of 11 oil and gas rigs.
Alaska and North Dakota both added three rigs this week and New Mexico added one.
Oklahoma dropped the most rigs at five, while Louisiana and Texas dropped one rig apiece.
Among the major basins, the Cana Woodford saw the most declines at five, the Mississippian lost three rigs and the Arkoma Woodford, Granite Wash and Permian all scrapped one rig apiece.
The Williston and the Eagle Ford are the only basins who increased rigs, at three and one, respectively.
This week’s overall rig count total is 1,026. This is still higher than the count of 990 one year ago.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Boeing 737-Max has a structural design flaw.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-15/piece-found-in-crash-wreckage-said-to-show-jet-was-set-to-dive

The US FAA was reluctant to ground Boeing 737-Max until the most important evidence (Jackscrew) showed otherwise.

The Boeing 737-Max has a structural design flaw that needs the software to implement a nose dive motion to make it fly normally but will make it difficult for the pilot to manage.  Therefore, the 2 recent crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia were caused by the defective design of the plane.

Boeing is definitely liable for the defective design and will need to make huge compensation for the deceased passengers and crews.

Friday, March 15, 2019

What happened to Hibor after HKMA intervention?

HKD Hibor

CNY Hibor
The current one-month HKD Hibor is at 1.58% and the CNY Hibor is at 2.79%.


The previous 1-month HKD Hibor was at 1.33% and the CNY Hibor was at 2.72% as shown in the link above.

The HKMA sold USD and bought HKD to stabilize the HKD which caused the 1-month hibor to rise across the board.

Regal - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/10/18 Tayona Regal 0.13 0.3 Overweight
08/23/18 Tayona Regal 0.11 0.3 Overweight

Raffles Medical - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/18 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.12 1.24 Add Sum of parts
02/13/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.08 1.34 Buy
02/27/18 Phillip Raffles Medical 1.1 1.32 Accumulate DCF
02/27/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.1 1.32 Buy DCF
02/27/18 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.1 1.26 Buy Sum of parts
02/27/18 Kim Eng Raffles Medical 1.1 1.13 Hold DCF
02/27/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.1 1.02 Neutral DCF
02/28/18 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.16 1 Fully Valued Sum of parts, PER26x FY18
03/13/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.17 1.32 Buy DCF
05/02/18 Phillip Raffles Medical 1.15 1.32 Accumulate DCF
05/02/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.15 1.32 Buy DCF
05/02/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.15 1.02 Sell DCF
05/02/18 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.15 1.26 Buy
05/02/18 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.15 1.24 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/18 Kim Eng Raffles Medical 1.15 1.13 Hold
06/29/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.01 1.02 Neutral DCF
07/24/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.1 1.28 Buy DCF, PER34.8x FY18
08/07/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.09 1.28 Buy DCF, PER34.8x FY18
08/07/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.09 1.02 Neutral
08/07/18 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.09 1.19 Hold Sum of parts
08/07/18 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.09 1.26 Buy
08/08/18 Phillip Raffles Medical 1.11 1.32 Accumulate DCF
09/24/18 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.1 1.26 Buy
10/30/18 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.09 1.26 Buy Sum of parts
10/30/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.09 1.27 Buy DCF
10/30/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.09 1.02 Neutral DCF
10/30/18 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.09 1.19 Hold Sum of parts
12/05/18 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.2 1.3 Buy DCF
01/23/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.11 1.16 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.12 1.3 Buy DCF
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.12 1.02 Neutral DCF
02/26/19 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.12 1.25 Buy
02/26/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.12 1.12 Hold Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19

Q & M - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/18 CIMB Q & M 0.65 0.61 Reduce PER28x CY19
03/02/18 phillip Q & M 0.635 0.625 Hold PER27x FY18
05/16/18 phillip Q & M 0.605 0.625 Neutral PER27x FY18
08/16/18 phillip Q & M 0.51 0.649 Buy PER28x FY18
11/19/18 phillip Q & M 0.51 0.513 Neutral PER25x FY18/19
11/23/18 CIMB Q & M 0.505 0.47 Reduce PER20x FY20
01/23/19 phillip Q & M 0.495 0.513 Neutral

Stock calls for 15 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/15/19 DBS Vickers Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.49 0.59 Buy DCF
03/15/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Infrastructure 0.485 0 Hold
03/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.795 0.9 Buy

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Propnex - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/12/18 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.535 0.65 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
10/22/18 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.535 0.65 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
11/15/18 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.56 0.65 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
12/10/18 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.525 0.65 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.565 0.66 Buy

Powermatic - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/06/18 CIMB Powermatic 1.39 2.58 Add Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY19

Perennial Reit - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.88 1.05 Buy
02/09/18 CIMB Perennial Reit 0.835 1.12 Add
02/12/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.835 1.05 Buy RNAV (50% discount)
03/13/18 CIMB Perennial Reit 0.855 1.18 Add RNAV (40% discount)
03/14/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.875 1.05 Buy
04/06/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.855 1.05 Buy
05/10/18 CIMB Perennial Reit 0.86 1.18 Add RNAV (40% discount)
08/06/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.805 1.05 Buy RNAV (50% discount)
08/07/18 CIMB Perennial Reit 0.805 0.99 Add RNAV (50% discount)
11/09/18 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.685 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.645 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)

Stock calls for 14 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/14/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.2 Neutral DDM
03/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.6 Buy
03/14/19 CIMB Japfa 0.715 0.63 Reduce Sum of parts
03/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.405 0.41 Hold Buy @ $0.37
03/14/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x CY20
03/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.805 0.86 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.78
03/14/19 Amfrasers Uni-Asia 1.2 2.07 Buy

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Parkway Life - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/18 CIMB Parkway Life 2.97 3.07 Hold DDM
01/29/18 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 2.97 0 Hold
01/29/18 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.97 3.15 Buy
05/02/18 CIMB Parkway Life 2.79 3.07 Hold DDM
05/02/18 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.79 3.32 Buy DDM
05/04/18 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 2.78 0 Buy
06/20/18 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.58 3.15 Buy
07/26/18 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 2.78 0 Buy
07/27/18 CIMB Parkway Life 2.75 3.05 Hold DDM
07/27/18 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.75 3.15 Buy DCF
10/25/18 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.67 3.15 Buy DDM
10/26/18 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.63 3.1 Buy DCF
10/26/18 CIMB Parkway Life 2.63 3.05 Hold
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.8 3.1 Buy

Pacific Radiance - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/12/18 CIMB Pacific Radiance 0.108 0.07 Reduce

Pacific Century - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Pacific Century 0.385 0 Buy

Stock calls for 13 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/13/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy
03/13/19 CIMB CEI 0.945 0.97 Hold PER10x FY20
03/13/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.3 28.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.61 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/13/19 Lim & Tan Hi-P 1.75 0 Avoid overvalued
03/13/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.79 1.06 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.85 0.94 Buy
03/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.57 2.8 Hold Buy @ $2.35
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.08 1.25 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.555 0.65 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.74 4.1 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.7 0.8 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners UOB 25.04 29.8 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.24 3.63 Buy

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

SGX's dream to be a derivatives exchange is being shattered by HKEX.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exchange-faces-threat-hkex-china-share-move-063117446.html

SGX is no longer a securities exchange favoured by IPO aspirants. Therefore, it seeks to boost its derivatives business to replace its securities market.  However, this strategy is being shattered by HKEX now.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/death-knell-is-bellowing-for-sgx-as.html

PACC Offshore - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.43 0.51 Buy PB1x
02/13/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.37 0.51 Buy
02/22/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.39 0.48 Buy PB1.4x
04/04/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.35 0.32 Hold PB1x
05/10/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.345 0.32 Hold PB1x FY18
08/10/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.305 0.32 Hold PB1x FY18
11/05/18 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.24 0.25 Hold PB0.8x FY19
02/26/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.183 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/14/18 UOB Kay Hian Oxley 0.56 0.74 Buy
04/04/18 Soochow SSD Oxley 0.495 0.63 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
04/24/18 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.485 0.68 Not Rated RNAV (35% discount)
06/04/18 Kim Eng Oxley 0.46 0.56 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
07/09/18 Kim Eng Oxley 0.345 0.34 Hold
07/12/18 Tayona Oxley 0.36 0.435 Overweight
08/27/18 Kim Eng Oxley 0.35 0.36 Hold
09/06/18 Kim Eng Oxley 0.345 0.36 Hold
12/07/18 UOB Kay Hian Oxley 0.295 0.64 Buy

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Soochow SSD OUE Lippo HC 0.066 0.088 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 March 2019


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/12/19 Tayona CNMC 0.21 0.31 Overweight
03/12/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.69 1.85 Hold Buy @ $1.65
03/12/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.51 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
03/12/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.1 0 Hold
03/12/19 OCBC Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.6 Buy
03/12/19 Citibank SGX 7.46 7 Sell
03/12/19 CIMB Singtel 2.93 3.4 Add Sum of parts
03/12/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.2 3.96 Add Sum of parts
03/12/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.2 3.6 Buy

Failed bike sharing business again!

https://www.asiaone.com/singapore/end-life-cycle-mobike-calls-it-quits-singapore

This is a flawed business concept and we've stated this many times. I'm sick of explaining this again.

Please read our previous posts below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/ofo-bike-sharing-has-failed-in-usa.html

SIA had no safety concern for its passengers.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-grounds-boeing-737-max-aircraft-caas-silkair-11334980

It was sad to see that our national carrier (SIA-Silkair) had no safety concern for its passengers until our CAAS took action to ban Boeing 737-Max.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/silkair-sia-boeing-737-max-aircraft-operation-ethiopia-airlines-11330734

Kudos to CAAS and Shame on SIA!

SMRT has MRT door safety issue!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/smrt-station-manager-suspended-train-moves-off-door-open-033702093.html

Look like the door issue is a common safety problem for MRT.  Even the new MRT has this door safety issue.

We had highlighted this before.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/smrt-safety-is-in-doubt-again.html

Monday, March 11, 2019

Singapore is heading towards a political collision course with Malaysia in the future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/malaysias-mahathir-says-he-will-side-with-china-over-us-scmp.html

Malaysia has chosen to side with China when the inevitable occurrence comes.  What about Singapore? Whose side will we be on?

SG is very likely to side the USA in our view. Why?

This is because most of our military weapons are US-based including our fighter jets.  Our F15, F16 and F35 won't have the spare parts to fly if we side with China.  Our missiles defense systems also cannot work when we are not in the same camp as the US since we are using GPS and not Beidou.

Without our military defense, we will be very vulnerable and Malaysia can just walk over us.  If our government doesn't diversify our military defense, we will be locked down forever by the USA.

However, we will be at war with Malaysia when we are not in the same camp as Malaysia.

It is time to purchase Russian and Chinese military defense systems.