The US stock markets are getting precarious.

The risk-free (10y bond yield) rate is at 2.22% and it is below the Fed's interest rates bandwidth of 2.25%-2.5%.  This will increase the Fed's pressure to reduce its interest rates as the current rates are no longer relevant and effective to manage the market expectation.  This exposes the fragility of the risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  Furthermore, there are some yield curve inversions which denote a forthcoming recession.

Is a recession coming soon?

A recession is highly likely to happen in our view. Why?

The US corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is giving a red light warning now.

Whenever there was a credit cycle peak in the past, there would be a US recession.  The credit cycle peaks happened in 1990 (oil shock recession), 2000 (tech bubble burst), 2008 (US housing collapse, Lehmans bro minibonds) and 2018 (forthcoming recession).

The credit cycle had peaked in 2018 and the US-China trade war started in 2018 too.  The world economies have started to slow down now due to the trade war.  Consequently, the US bond markets are showing the low-risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  With so many negative factors in this global environment now, a recession is inevitable.

Koufu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.63	0.8	Buy	PER17x FY19
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy	PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.27	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.24	Neutral	DCF
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/22/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.31	Buy	DCF
01/22/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.34	Add	DDM
01/22/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.06	Neutral	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.18	1.35	Buy
03/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.28	1.35	Buy	DDM
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.06	Neutral
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.29	1.35	Buy	DDM
04/18/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.12	Neutral	DDM
04/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.38	Buy	DCF
04/18/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.24	0	Hold
04/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.37	Buy	DDM
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.4	Buy	DCF
04/25/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.34	Add	DDM
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.37	Buy

Stock calls for 30 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.95	2.16	Buy
05/30/19	phillip	Clearbridge	0.149	0.28	Buy	DCF
05/30/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	7.83	8.25	Neutral	DCF
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.37	Buy
05/30/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.45	1.6	Hold	PB1.45x
05/30/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.82	1.99	Hold	Buy @ $1.81

The US broke promise on South China Sea.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/president-xi-jinping-broke-promise-on-south-china-sea-us-general-11578314

It was the US who broke the promise on the South China Sea.  We reported this in our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-1947-map-showed-that-south-china-sea.html

Furthermore, it was the US Navy that accompanied China to reclaim the South China Sea islands after WW2.  China has the documentation and pictures to prove this reclamation in the South China Sea.  Who wouldn't take pictures of this historical event back then?

A pro-China Malaysia is a threat to Singapore economically. Why?

https://www.asiaone.com/malaysia/mahathir-says-malaysia-will-use-huawei-much-possible

A pro-China Malaysia is a threat to SG because it will render SG a less strategic partner to China.

Currently, China trusts Malaysia more than SG despite having some hiccups with Malaysia.  The ECRL, BKK-KL HSR and Melaka Gateway projects display the strategic alliance and trust between China and Malaysia.  Furthermore, Malaysia has bought China military armaments while SG has not because the US doesn't allow it.

Although SG is a Chinese majority country and Chinese-speaking nation, China trusts a Malay-speaking Malaysia more than SG now.  Speaking the same language used to be an advantage but China had become smarter.  China only believes in what you do, not what you say anymore.  This puts SG in a much lower priority than Malaysia since actions speak louder than words.  Thus, a pro-China Malaysia will start to erode SG economically over time.

How did the US fudge the US-China trade data?

The US claimed that it exported US$120B goods to China in 2018 but excluded the US$37.5B HK exports.  HK is part of China but the US doesn't include the HK trade data in the US-China trade data.  Furthermore, the US also didn't include the exported US services to China (US$72B including HK) because it wanted to exaggerate the US-China trade deficit.

For your information, I culled and calculated the aforesaid figures from the US census bureau website.

Thus, in total, the US exported US$229.5B worth of goods and services to China in 2018 which was almost double the trade figure that was stated by the US.

The US also will exclude military sales from the trade data and this exclusion will benefit the US since it is a large military weapons exporter.  The US-SG goods trade deficit in 2018 was US$5.9B but the US-SG services trade surplus was US$12.4B.  Therefore, the US had a trade surplus of US$6.5B (nett figure) with SG in 2018.  However, this US trade surplus of US$6.5B was an understatement because SG bought a lot of US military weapons which were excluded from the trade data.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/southeast-asia-pacific/singapore

The ungrateful US keeps talking about the US-SG goods trade deficit and puts SG on its currency watchlist without any valid reason.  Who is the real victim here when SG has a total trade deficit of US$6.5B with the US (excludes military sales)?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-targeting-singapore-malaysia.html

Rare earth processing is not so easy.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-set-control-rare-earth-011355016.html

Rare earth processing is an esoteric industry because it is highly toxic and will pollute the environment.  Furthermore, there are very few talented people who possess such knowledge.

It is estimated that there are about 100 PHD holders in this specialized field in China.  However, there is no such talent outside of China.  This is the reason that China is able to dominate this field with its rare earth processing knowledge.  Thus, the US must be stealing information and knowledge from China if it is able to develop any advanced processing capability.

MAS's response to US watchlist report will not get SG off the list.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mas-responds-to-us-report-says-it-does-not-engage-in-currency-manipulation-070614263.html

It is a common knowledge in the world that SG uses currency and not interest rates policy to manage its economy.  Therefore, it is pointless to respond to the US watchlist report because the US won't listen due to its unilateralism culture.  SG is partly to blame for grooming the unilateralism mindset in the US because we've been supporting and pursuing US political interests.  The day of reckoning is here and we've only ourselves to blame.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-targeting-singapore-malaysia.html

Keppel KBS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.61	0.78	Buy	DCF
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.68	0.8	Buy	DCF
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.705	0.8	Buy

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.515	0.58	Buy	DDM
03/15/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.485	0	Hold
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.48	0.58	Buy	DDM

Keppel DC Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.36	1.45	Accumulate
01/23/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.52	Accumulate	DDM
01/23/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.51	Add	DDM
01/23/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.45	1.52	Accumulate
03/12/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy
04/08/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.47	1.62	Buy	DDM
04/09/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.48	1.54	Add	DDM
04/16/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.64	Buy
04/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	0	Hold
04/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.59	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.37x FY19
05/02/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.51	1.62	Buy

Stock calls for 29 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/29/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.148	0.15	Neutral	PER10x
05/29/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.86	1	Buy	DDM

The US is targeting Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam for the trade war now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-malaysia-vietnam-added-u-030842267.html

Vietnam will definitely be slaughtered by the US in the future because of its burgeoning trade surpluses with the US.  The trade surplus will keep increasing because many foreign companies are using Vietnam as a manufacturing base.

Singapore is the most aggrieved party because SG uses its currency as a monetary tool since the small population and international trading render the interest rate policy as ineffective in managing its economy.  SG will suffer greatly if the US sanctions us because we cannot use interest rate policy to manage our economy.

Malaysia is being punished because it is getting pro-China and is an Islamic country.  The western superpower doesn't like Muslims at all.

Malaysia was glad that the US didn't sign the TPP agreement.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-send-3-000-tonnes-plastic-waste-back-074356147.html

If Malaysia were part of the original TPP, it couldn't send back or sue the US and Japan for dumping waste in its homeland.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/fearmongering-by-western-media.html

Malaysia would need to compensate the US and Japan for their losses under the original TPP.

What a relief for Malaysia!

Federal express (FedEx) is also a US state agent!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-huawei-reviewing-fedex-relationship-says-packages-diverted-185215043--finance.html

FedEx is also a US state agent and is working discreetly with the US government to channel China posts and packages to the US.

The lame excuse of rerouting error is really ridiculous because it is an expensive error to make to reroute to the US.

Keppel Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	5.81	7.25	Buy	Sum of parts
01/10/19	DIR	Keppel Corp	6.18	7.15	Buy	Cut from $7.86, Sum of parts
01/23/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.17	8.28	Add
01/25/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.13	7.55	Buy
01/25/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.13	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
01/28/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.2	0	Hold
01/29/19	Amfrasers	Keppel Corp	6.14	7.5	Hold
01/29/19	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	6.14	8.2	Outperform	Sum of parts
02/21/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.32	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
03/12/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.1	0	Hold
03/26/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.17	8.41	Add
04/15/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.62	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
04/22/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.74	7.83	Buy
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.74	0	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.72	8.41	Add	Sum of parts

Jumbo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.415	0.44	Hold	PER23x FY19
02/15/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.415	0.52	Add	PER21x FY20
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.415	0.41	Hold	Buy @ $0.37
03/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.37
03/29/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.395	0.5	Buy	PER23x FY19/20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.405	0.51	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.405	0.52	Add	PER21x FY20

Jardine C&C - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.28	43.1	Buy
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.52	39.1	Buy	Sum of parts (16% discount)

Stock calls for 28 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/28/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.45	2.82	Add
05/28/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.475	0.6	Add
05/28/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.26	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.26	0.21	Sell
05/28/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.93	2.03	Add
05/28/19	CIMB	Suntec Reit	1.82	2.06	Add
05/28/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.805	0.86	Hold

No trade deal between US and China in G20 summit in June 2019.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011955/donald-trump-says-us-isnt-ready-china-trade-deal-and-they

Trump has just indicated that the US is not ready to make a deal with China and the US tariffs on China goods will increase substantially.

The US economy must suffer quite a lot first before the US will renegotiate with China again.  It will take some time for the bad US economic numbers to surface.  We just need to be patient.

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.82	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
01/30/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.81	0.99	Buy
03/01/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.765	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
03/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.705	0.98	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY19
03/05/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.705	0.8	Buy	Sum of parts (15% discount), PER11.4x FY19
03/14/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.715	0.63	Reduce	Sum of parts
03/21/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.65	1.05	Buy	Sum of parts
04/02/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.665	1.05	Buy
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.61	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/27/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.575	0.93	Buy	Sum of parts

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.415	0.57	Hold	DCF
03/08/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.43	0.45	Neutral
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.435	0.45	Neutral
05/22/19	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.44	0.55	Neutral	DCF
05/23/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.44	0.4	Hold

Jadason - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Jadason	0.02	0.066	Add
05/13/19	CIMB	Jadason	0.038	0.059	Add	PB1x CY19

Stock calls for 27 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/27/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.28	4	Buy	RNAV (25% discount)
05/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.44	2.65	Buy	DDM
05/27/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.265	0.27	Hold
05/27/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.575	0.93	Buy	Sum of parts
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19
05/27/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.61	0.67	Neutral	DCF

Apple is resorting to selling customers' data to make up for revenue losses in China. Hahaha!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/apple-accused-of-selling-itunes-customers-listening-data

Database selling is a lucrative business because the same set of data can be sold many times.  Apple is caught selling its customers' data and many American firms are doing the same thing.  Is Apple trying to make up for the revenue losses in China? Hahaha!

Baltic dry index - 1068

Today, Friday, May 24 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2 points, reaching 1068 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

====================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 983

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Google has just killed its own future!

Why?

Google acted as a US state agent by terminating its Android services with Huawei.  This has raised an alarming signal to other nations that they cannot depend on "free" services from Google because it will pursue US political interests.  Therefore, China, India and the EU will develop their own mobile and PC platforms in the future to prevent the same occurrence from happening to them.  Nobody wants to be held hostage by the US anymore.

These alternative platforms will marginalize Google services in the future and make Google weaker.  This is exactly the same significant mistake made by Nokia in the past when Nokia didn't focus on smartphone developments.

Personally, I would like to see Linux ecosystem being developed worldwide so that we won't be held hostage by anybody.

Wow! Li Huan Wu has gotten married in South Africa!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/li-huanwu-grandson-of-lee-kuan-yew-marries-male-partner-in-south-africa-131110327.html

This is Lee Hsien Yang's 2nd son!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-lee-family-has-gay-genes.html

ISOTeam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/18/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.22	0.23	Neutral	DCF
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.22	0.29	Buy	DCF

ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Add	PER10x CY20

Indofood Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.2	0.19	Hold	DCF
04/12/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28

Stock calls for 24 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Hold
05/24/19	DMG & Partners	F & N	1.73	3.53	Not Rated	Sum of parts
05/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.44	2.36	Neutral
05/24/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x

Omg! The US risk-free rate is at 2.31% now.

The 10-year treasury yield is at 2.31% and is below the Ioer (2.35%).  The US banks with excess cash won't invest in the 10y treasury now because the Ioer return is better.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

The US economic situation is getting dicey now.

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates because of the trade war?

Let's check out the 4 interest rates (IR) in May vs April.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

Iorr: 2.35% (May) vs 2.4% (April)

Effr: 2.38% (May) vs 2.44% (April)

Ioer: 2.35% (May) vs 2.4% (April)

On RRP: 2.25% (April) vs 2.25% (May)

Effr: 2.38%
Ioer: 2.35%

The spread between Effr & Ioer is shrinking which denotes that the monetary tightening condition is starting to ease.  The Iorr, Effr and Ioer have decreased in May, and the declines in IR show that the US Fed is willing to consider interest rate cuts if the economic situation deteriorates further.

The US is pressurising South Korea again after THAAD.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/huawei-south-korea-lg-security-risks-11557438

South Korea is facing intense pressure from the US again after THAAD installation.  If SK bans Huawei, it will antagonize China again.  SK is in no economic condition to do this again because its exports are declining rapidly due to the US-China trade war.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-21/south-korea-faces-greater-export-pain-as-trade-tensions-escalate

IHH Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.86	2.13	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.45 target price
03/01/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.29	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.90 target

IFS Capital - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.225	0.29	Buy	PB0.7x FY18

Ifast Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.11	1.19	Hold	DDM
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.12	1.05	Hold	DDM