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Friday, June 21, 2019

SIA - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.5 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
01/24/19 CIMB SIA 9.5 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 CIMB SIA 9.87 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.87 11 Buy PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19 Lim & Tan SIA 9.87 0 Hold
02/18/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.76 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19 OCBC SIA 9.76 10.71 Buy
03/19/19 CIMB SIA 9.83 10.25 Hold
03/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.83 10.1 Hold Buy @ $9
04/16/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.88 10.1 Hold Sum of parts
04/16/19 OCBC SIA 9.88 11.02 Buy
05/17/19 CIMB SIA 9.4 10.14 Hold PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19 OCBC SIA 9.3 11.02 Buy
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.3 9.6 Hold Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.3 10.8 Buy PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.17 9.5 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60

SHS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 phillip SHS 0.197 0.24 Accumulate PER10x FY19
03/08/19 phillip SHS 0.191 0.194 Neutral PB0.7x
05/21/19 phillip SHS 0.174 0 Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.06 1.27 Buy
01/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.07 1.13 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.08 1.15 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy DCF
02/27/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.09 1.19 Buy
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy PER25x FY19
02/27/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.09 1.22 Add PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.09 1.11 Hold
03/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.09 1.3 Accumulate PER25x
03/05/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.24 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.08 1.25 Buy DCF
03/19/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.08 0.95 Sell DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy
04/16/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.06 0.95 Sell DCF
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.04 1.11 Hold Buy @ $1
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy PER5x FY19
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.23 Buy DCF & PER21x
04/30/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.04 1.1 Hold PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.24 Buy DCF
04/30/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.04 1.19 Buy
05/02/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.03 1.3 Buy PER25x
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.1 1.25 Buy
06/14/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.09 0.95 Sell DCF

Stock calls for 21 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.58 2.65 Hold
06/21/19 Lim & Tan Del Monte 0.12 0 Buy
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 10.66 11.8 Buy DDM
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.55 2.72 Buy
06/21/19 DMG & Partners Jumbo 0.38 0.47 Buy DCF, PER23x FY19
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.57 9 Buy
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Commercial 2.04 2.22 Buy

Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in July 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/traders-are-pricing-in-a-100percent-chance-of-at-least-one-fed-rate-cut-in-july.html

We had expected a rate cut to happen after analzying the US interest rates and the economic situation (see below) in the US.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

Look like the US Fed will reduce its interest rates in July 2019 as expected by the US traders.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/21/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.04 16.4 Buy
03/22/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.18 16.16 Buy

SGX - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip SGX 7.15 9.01 Buy
01/25/19 CIMB SGX 7.5 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20
01/25/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.5 8.2 Buy PER22x FY20
01/28/19 phillip SGX 7.57 8.36 Buy PER23.2x FY19
01/28/19 OCBC SGX 7.57 7.98 Buy PER22x F19/20
02/22/19 Citibank SGX 7.87 7.8 Hold
03/12/19 Citibank SGX 7.46 7 Sell
03/14/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x CY20
03/19/19 phillip SGX 7.31 8.17 Accumulate PER23.2x
04/05/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.42 8.1 Buy PER23x FY20
04/26/19 OCBC SGX 7.26 7.6 Hold PER21x FY20
04/26/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19 Kim Eng SGX 7.26 8.79 Buy PER23x FY19
04/29/19 phillip SGX 7.4 8.09 Accumulate PER21.4x
04/29/19 CIMB SGX 7.4 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20

Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Marine 1.62 1.62 Hold Cut from $1.78, PB1.8x FY19
01/22/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.66 2.5 Buy
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.6 1.83 Hold PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.50
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.59 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.68 2.21 Add PB2x CY19
02/21/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.77 Hold
02/21/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Marine 1.68 0 Hold
02/26/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.72 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.4 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.69 2.21 Add PB2x
05/06/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
05/06/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.77 Hold
05/06/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.48 Buy
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
05/30/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.45 1.6 Hold PB1.45x
06/04/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.39 1.99 Buy PB1.8x FY20

Stock calls for 20 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/20/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.92 1.9 Neutral DDM
06/20/19 OCBC UOB 26.14 28.9 Buy

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 4

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-in-april-skid-to-nearly-two-year-low-idUSKCN1TI2RA

China had sold US treasuries again.  Why?

We've stated the rationale behind the selling in our previous posts.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_18.html

The US treasuries sold off was not a retaliation against the US but to defend the RMB.  This is the reason the RMB is unable to breach the $7 mark.

What are the repercussions for selling the US treasuries?

China will have to convert the USD abroad into RMB and remit it back to China. This will cause an influx of RMB in China and increase the money supply.  As idling money will depreciate in value over time, the China central bank will make good use of the excess money by reducing the bank's required reserve ratio to stimulate its local consumption.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

Thereafter, the excess money will flow into the stock markets, property markets, etc and boost inflation.  Consequently, inflation will help to reduce the debt burdens in China.

Why is inflation able to reduce the debt pressure?

Inflation works in the same way as compound interest. It creates asset appreciation and causes wealth accumulation much faster than debt because debt is not subjected to the same effect.  Therefore, inflation is able to reduce the debt pressure in China.

However, China cannot afford to sell all its US treasuries because overwhelming inflation will create an overheating economy and China has to manage the burgeoning inflation well or else it will have a bigger problem to resolve in the future.  Fortunately, the worldwide economic situation has created an ideal environment in China for inflation to rear its head.  Why?

The ECB has just stated its willingness to implement a QE policy with an interest rate cut recently.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/06/18/donald-trump-takes-aim-at-mario-draghi-over-interest-rates

Furthermore, the US is also keen to reduce its own interest rates.  Financially speaking, the money will usually flow to a higher interest rate country (China) from a lower interest rate country (EU,US).  Thus, China doesn't need to do anything but to wait for the capital inflows from the EU and US when they reduce their interest rates.  In conclusion, China just needs to sell enough US treasuries to maintain a stable RMB and the expected capital inflows will work its wonders in China.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Industries 2.64 3.05 Outperform Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.63 3.2 Buy Sum of parts
01/23/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.69 3.49 Add
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.59 3.2 Buy
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.58 3.7 Buy
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.66 0 Hold
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.67 3.9 Buy RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.57 2.8 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.52 0 Hold
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.75 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add Sum of parts
05/17/19 phillip Sembcorp Industries 2.55 3.75 Buy Sum of parts
06/04/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.38 3.03 Buy Sum of parts

SATS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation Remark
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.59 5.6 Buy
01/11/19 OCBC SATS 4.94 5.23 Hold DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.8 5.6 Buy
02/14/19 phillip SATS 4.98 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC SATS 4.98 5.23 Hold
02/14/19 CIMB SATS 4.98 5.46 Add PER20.3x
02/14/19 Lim & Tan SATS 4.98 0 Hold
02/14/19 DBS Vickers SATS 4.98 5.59 Buy DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19 Kim Eng SATS 4.98 5.8 Buy
02/15/19 Citi Research SATS 5.08 6 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.06 5.6 Buy
04/15/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.31 5.8 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.27 5.6 Buy
05/17/19 OCBC SATS 5.22 5.35 Hold
05/21/19 phillip SATS 5.08 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.08 5.05 Hold Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.08 5.44 Buy DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.07 5.05 Hold Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.04 5.44 Buy
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20

Sasseur - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation Remark
02/20/19 Kim Eng Sasseur 0.74 0.9 Buy DDM
02/20/19 DBS Vickers Sasseur 0.74 0.97 Buy DCF
04/03/19 CIMB Sasseur 0.78 0.92 Add

Stock calls for 19 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/19/19 Phillip A-Reit 2.98 2.88 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Buy
06/19/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.79 0.75 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 1.93 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.21 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Accumulate
06/19/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.88 0.94 Accumulate
06/19/19 OCBC DBS 24.8 29.18 Buy Buy @ $27.50 or lower
06/19/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.775 0.87 Buy
06/19/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.56 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.61 2.36 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.64 1.59 Accumulate
06/19/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.17 2.03 Neutral
06/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.17 9.5 Hold Buy @ $8.60

President Trump is the man behind wall street.

Just a tweet from President Trump that he and President Xi would have an extended talk at G20 sent the stock markets rallying.

If the trade talk falls out between the US & China at G20, the stock markets will fall hard and fast too.  How do we determine the progress?

If Trump is going to insist on his previous terms, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to discuss the Hong Kong extradition bill and protest with Xi, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to threaten Xi with additional tariffs, the trade talk will fall out too.

We just need to observe the discussing issues between Xi and Trump to predict the outcome of the trade talk.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Sanli Env - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/06/19 Tayrona Sanli Env 0.18 0.234 Overweight

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.39 Hold
02/25/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.415 0.41 Hold
04/17/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.4 0.41 Hold
05/09/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.41 Hold
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.39 Hold RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 CIMB Riverstone 1.1 1.22 Add PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.1 1.19 Hold PER16x FY19
05/14/19 CIMB Riverstone 0.995 1.22 Add PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 0.975 1.03 Hold PER16.8x FY19/20

Stock calls for 18 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.87 1.15 Buy
06/18/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.42 4.1 Outperform RNAV (25% discount)
06/18/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.58 2.65 Neutral DCF & FCF
06/18/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.565 0.6 Add DDM
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.635 0.73 Buy DCF

The US is trying to nullify China patents now to win the trade war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senator-rubio-targets-huawei-over-215937943.html

This will definitely open up a new battle frontier and it is bad for businesses.

If the US nullify China patents, China will retaliate by nullifying the US patents too.  When these 2 countries don't recognize each other's patents, the whole world will be in chaos because nobody is protected with patents anymore.

It is best not to open the pandora's box because the repercussion is too severe.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.11 1.16 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.12 1.3 Buy DCF
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.12 1.02 Neutral DCF
02/26/19 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.12 1.25 Buy
02/26/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.12 1.12 Hold Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.12 1.09 Neutral DCF
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.07 1.02 Neutral
05/02/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.08 1.09 Neutral DCF
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.08 1.12 Hold Sum of parts
05/14/19 Kim Eng Raffles Medical 1.02 1.13 Hold DCF
06/12/19 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.02 1.1 Hold

Q & M - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip Q & M 0.495 0.513 Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.565 0.66 Buy
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.595 0.66 Buy
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.505 0.6 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19 phillip Propnex 0.5 0.63 Buy DCF
06/07/19 CIMB Propnex 0.49 0.64 Add

Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/17/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.77 0.83 Buy DDM
06/17/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.81 29.46 Buy
06/17/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.75 0.9 Buy DCF
06/17/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.87 1 Buy DDM
06/17/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.33 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
06/17/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.78 11.07 Hold
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19 OCBC Starhill 0.755 0.8 Buy
06/17/19 Kim Eng UOB 24.99 28.97 Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html


We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.


This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.