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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
01/21/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.56 Buy
01/21/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.5 Hold DDM
01/21/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 0 Hold
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.5 Neutral
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
04/24/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Neutral DDM
04/24/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.58 Buy
04/24/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Hold DDM
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.51 1.7 Buy
06/26/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.69 Buy
06/26/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.64 Add DDM
06/27/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.66 1.65 Neutral DDM
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.68 1.65 Neutral
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.7 Hold DCF
07/22/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.64 1.7 Hold
10/04/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.6 1.7 Hold DCF
10/23/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.64 1.65 Neutral DDM
10/24/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.76 Hold
10/24/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.65 1.71 Add DDM

Stock calls for 31 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.4 1.66 Buy DDM
10/31/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.78 Buy DDM
10/31/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy DDM
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.63 2.05 Buy
10/31/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.525 0.68 Buy
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Delfi 0.995 1.49 Buy PER23.7x FY20
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.86 Buy
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.8 Buy
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Hold
10/31/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.27 1.43 Buy
10/31/19 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 3.24 0 Hold
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Singapore Post 0.96 0.96 Hold

APEC summit is cancelled!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chiles-apec-cancellation-raises-hurdle-002610187.html

The APEC summit in Chile is cancelled because of its ongoing violent protests.

Shall we support the Chilean protests? Fight for freedom in Chile! Fight for democracy in Chile! Hahaha!

The US GDP growth declined to 1.9%.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-economy-grows-modest-1-123602190.html

The US GDP growth slowed to 1.9% but this would still be an optimistic number in the face of the consecutive declines in its PMI.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/ism-pmi-declined-to-478-in-september.html

We don't want to accuse the US of fudging its GDP number but the declining PMI numbers are showing a more dire strait situation.

Anyway, let's put this aside and look at another thing that most media omit.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-both_27.html

China GDP growth - 3rd Qtr: 6%
US GDP growth - 3rd Qtr: 1.9%

China has grown its GDP by US$0.82T (6% of GDP US$13.6T) this quarter but the US is only growing at US$0.39T (1.9% of GDP US$20.5T).  In other words, China is growing at twice the US growth rate in absolute terms.

The FED has cut rates as we had predicted.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-4-u-fed-cuts-180003179.html

The US FED has cut rates to 1.5-1.75% and will remain on hold for now.  This means there won't be any further cut anymore in 2019.

We had anticipated such a rate cut in our previous post with our own analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-fed-will-cut-rates-again-in.html

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The UK has started to withdraw its support for the Hong Kong protest.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-hong-kong-protestors-have-just.html

As stated in our previous post, the HK protestors will start to lose the western support.

The UK knows that it cannot support the HK protests anymore because it has its own Brexit protest now.  Although the Brexit protest is still peaceful, it may escalate into a violent protest in the future and the UK police will have some difficulty to do a violent crackdown on its own violent protest if the UK government keeps supporting the violent protests in HK.  The UK also doesn't want the HK protestors to support the Brexit protest after they showed support for the Catalan protestors.

The US will also withdraw its support for the HK protestors if the US has a protest.  There may be an impeachment protest in the US since Nancy Pelosi is putting her political life at stake by spearheading the President's impeachment.

There are few protests going on in the west now.

Chile
Spain (Catalan)
UK (Brexit)
France (Yellow vest)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.55 Buy DDM
01/22/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 0 Hold
01/22/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.5 Buy
01/23/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.21 Neutral DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.4 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.32 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.35 Add DDM
02/15/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.24 2.21 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.3 2.55 Buy
03/01/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.5 Buy
03/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.4 Buy DCF
03/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.6 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.28 2.19 Neutral
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.38 2.6 Buy
04/04/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.6 Buy
04/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 0 Buy
04/25/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.19 Neutral DDM
04/25/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.61 Buy DDM
04/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.37 2.31 Neutral DDM
05/17/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.61 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.25 Neutral
05/17/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.45 2.55 Add DDM
05/21/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.4 2.6 Buy
05/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.41 2.71 Buy
05/24/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.44 2.36 Neutral DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.25 Neutral
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.52 2.71 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.61 2.36 Neutral
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.55 2.72 Buy
06/24/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.85 Buy
06/24/19 Amfrasers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.33 Neutral DDM
06/25/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.59 2.6 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.64 2.25 Neutral
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.64 2.95 Buy
07/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.62 2.72 Buy
07/22/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.36 Neutral
07/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.66 Hold DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.8 Buy DDM
07/24/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.69 Hold
07/24/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.79 Add DDM
07/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 0 Hold
07/26/19 Amfrasers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.63 2.51 Neutral
07/29/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.77 Accumulate DDM
08/22/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.79 Add
08/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.77 Accumulate
08/30/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.9 Add DDM
08/30/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.55 Neutral DDM
09/19/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.7 2.8 Buy
09/24/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.71 2.77 Accumulate
10/02/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.7 2.95 Buy
10/18/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.77 2.77 Accumulate
10/24/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 2.55 Neutral DDM
10/24/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 2.75 Hold
10/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 3.05 Buy
10/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.72 0 Hold
10/25/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.75 3.11 Accumulate DDM

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.8 10.68 Buy
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.7 10.76 Buy
03/06/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.8 10.76 Buy
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 10.66 11.8 Buy DDM

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.58 0.69 Buy
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.69 Buy
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.525 0.73 Buy PER13x FY19

Stock calls for 30 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/30/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.72 0.72 Hold
10/30/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.7 0 Hold
10/30/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.158 0.155 Hold
10/30/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.27 1.6 Buy DCF
10/30/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1 1.02 Neutral DCF
10/30/19 CIMB Raffles Medical 1 1.16 Add Sum of parts
10/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1 1.27 Buy DCF
10/30/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1 1.12 Hold
10/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Sasseur 0.8 0.97 Buy DDM

When the US says it is deploying its troops to protect the oil field, you cannot trust the US government.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-releases-damning-evidence-u-173000250.html

The US is caught red-handed by Russia for plundering Syrian oil under the guise of safeguarding the oil field.

Why am I not surprised?  If you truly understand the Americans, you will know that the US cannot be trusted.

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.58 0.69 Buy
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.69 Buy
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.525 0.73 Buy PER13x FY19

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/22/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.27 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
07/26/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.31 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.56 1.6 Hold
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.72 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.69 2.1 Buy
03/01/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.71 2.03 Buy PER17x
03/04/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.72 1.6 Neutral PER13x FY19
03/04/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.72 1.97 Buy DCF
03/05/19 CIMB First Resources 1.7 2.12 Add
03/12/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.69 1.85 Hold Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19 CIMB First Resources 1.79 2.12 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.85 1.85 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.82 2.03 Buy PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.79 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/16/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.7 1.53 Neutral PER13x FY20
05/16/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.7 1.93 Buy PER17x
05/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.7 1.95 Buy DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.7 1.7 Hold Buy @ $1.50
06/06/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.56 1.53 Neutral
07/02/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.6 1.93 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.55 1.82 Buy DCF
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.53 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
08/15/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.57 1.8 Buy
08/15/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.57 1.45 Neutral PER14x FY20
08/15/19 CIMB First Resources 1.57 1.76 Add
08/21/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.5 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
09/30/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.6 1.9 Buy PER18x FY20

Stock calls for 29 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/29/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.8 Buy
10/29/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.18 29.75 Buy
10/29/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.545 0.72 outperform DDM
10/29/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.6 Buy DDM
10/29/19 Lim & Tan Mapletree North Asia 1.26 0 Hold
10/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Oxley 0.34 0.5 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
10/29/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.29 18.85 Buy PB2.1x FY20

omg! Ang Mo Kio Block 4xx unit was ablaze this morning.

AMK again!

Saturday, October 26, 2019

The US Fed will cut rates again in October 2019.

How did we reach our conclusion?  Please read our previous analysis to understand our methodology.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

Our analysis:

Iorr: 1.8% (falling), Max is 2% as set by the US FED.


Effr: 1.85% (falling)


Ioer: 1.8% (falling)


On RRP: 1.7% (falling), Min is 1.75% as set by the US FED.


The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 1.75% to 2% currently.

Effr: 1.85%
Ioer: 1.8%

The Effr-Ioer spread is widening compared to the previous spread in September which denotes a monetary tightening condition.

The On RRR (1.7%) has breached the minimum rate (1.75%) set by the US FED which is signalling some financial stress in the monetary system.  This breach is caused by FED's intervention in the repo market.  Any of the 4 rates must not trade outside of the range set by the US FED (1.75%-2%).

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-fed-will-start-to-purchase-60b-t.html

Therefore, we can conclude that the US FED will cut interest rates again in October 2019 to keep itself relevant since it cannot keep the rates within the set range.

Baltic dry index - 1801

Today, Friday, October 25 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 16 points, reaching 1801 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
========================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 830


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, October 25, 2019

First Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 phillip First Reit 1.04 0.88 Neutral DDM
01/17/19 Lim & Tan First Reit 1.03 0 Neutral
01/18/19 OCBC First Reit 1.01 0.97 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB First Reit 1.01 1.2 Add DDM
02/11/19 OCBC First Reit 1.14 0.97 Sell
04/11/19 CIMB First Reit 0.99 1.2 Add DDM
08/13/19 CIMB First Reit 1.06 1.23 Add

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.605 0.68 Add
01/16/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.625 0.675 Buy
02/07/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.675 Buy
02/13/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.64 0 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.7 Buy DCF
02/14/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Add DDM
02/14/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.75 Buy DDM
02/14/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Buy
04/15/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.67 Hold
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.7 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.71 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.8 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.645 0.67 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
07/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.82 Buy DDM
07/31/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.67 Hold
07/31/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
08/01/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.68 0.7 Hold DCF
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.65 0.82 Buy
09/19/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.69 0.7 Hold

F & N - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/18 phillip F & N 2.39 2.83 Accumulate Sum of parts, PER27.1x FY18
03/19/18 phillip F & N 2.25 2.83 Buy
04/16/18 phillip F & N 2.12 2.83 Buy
05/10/18 phillip F & N 2.08 2.75 Buy Sum of parts
05/24/19 DMG & Partners F & N 1.73 3.53 Not Rated Sum of parts

Stock calls for 25 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.55 1.65 Buy
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Centurion 0.41 0.52 Buy DCF
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.645 1.02 Buy DDM
10/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.54 0.58 Buy
10/25/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.75 3.11 Accumulate DDM
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.925 1.11 Buy
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Sabana 0.455 0.48 Hold
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.28 2.9 Buy
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.4 1.45 Hold
10/25/19 DMG & Partners SGX 8.28 8.3 Neutral PER23x FY20
10/25/19 CIMB SGX 8.28 9 Add PER22.4x FY20
10/25/19 OCBC SGX 8.28 8.6 Hold PER22x FY20
10/25/19 DBS Vickers SGX 8.28 8.9 Buy
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Suntec Reit 1.89 1.99 Hold Buy @ $1.82
10/25/19 CIMB UMS 0.74 0.67 Hold PB1.4x FY20
10/25/19 Lim & Tan United Engineers 2.66 0 Sell

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Ezion - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.05 0.06 Hold PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PER10x F20
04/05/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PB1.4x

ESR Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 Lim & Tan ESR-Reit 0.53 0 Hold
01/21/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add DDM
01/21/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.575 Buy
01/22/19 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.53 0.59 Buy
02/12/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.515 0.61 Buy DDM
03/07/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.61 Buy
04/10/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.54 0.55 Hold
04/25/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.51 0.6 Add DDM
04/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.51 0.565 Buy
06/18/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.565 0.6 Add DDM
06/19/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.56 Buy
07/24/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.535 0.58 Buy
07/24/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.535 0.61 Add DDM
08/21/19 Citibank ESR-Reit 0.51 0.57 Buy